PWS DRAFT 145044-25-0013.pdf

Dr aft

Performance Work Statement

NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Project Title: Enhancing the Integration of Drought Impacts and Risk Communication into Regional and National Drought Early Warning

1) Background

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA’s) National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) program was authorized by Congress in 2006 (Public Law 109–430) and reauthorized in 2014 and 2019 with an interagency mission to improve the nation’s capacity to proactively manage drought-related risks by providing those affected with the best available information and resources to assess the potential for drought and to better prepare for, mitigate, and respond to the effects of drought.

A key component of the NIDIS Public Law is to integrate information on drought conditions, forecasts and impacts, and communicate this information on an ongoing basis to support better informed and more timely decisions thereby leading to reduced impacts and costs.

Communicating the impacts of drought, and future risk, is an essential component in the NIDIS Public Law.

Increasingly, communities need tailored information in the context of their location and sector for specific decisions. For example, healthcare institutions in the south, businesses on the east coast, or farmers in the central and western United States may need and use different risk information to make informed decisions.

Through its network of regional Drought Early Warning Systems (DEWS) and its leadership of the U.S.

Drought Portal (drought.gov), the U.S. government’s authoritative drought information website, NIDIS has led the way in delivering drought information across and for the nation. Yet, despite significant advances in the last decade, a key challenge for understanding and communicating drought risk is accessing real-time and historical information on how drought impacts the economy and society. In addition, communicating impacts and future risk remains a significant challenge, especially when additional hazards, such as wildfire, are involved. Further, extreme heat during a drought can accelerate the loss of water and impacts. Drought can also create conditions that leave communities and regions more prone to dangerous flooding events.

To improve current efforts at NIDIS on drought early warning and preparedness, there is a need to enhance and accelerate the integration of drought impact information into both drought monitoring and risk communication. These efforts will, in turn, improve drought response and planning using more granular and contextually-specific and relevant data. This performance work statement includes three tasks to directly address these needs: (1) Organize and convene a Workshop on Drought Risk Communication, (2) Conduct an assessment of drought impacts and, (3) Provide guidance and content to improve NIDIS communications on drought impacts and risk for the U.S. Drought Portal and the regional DEWS networks.

This performance work statement builds on a partnership between NIDIS and the Natural Hazards Center at the University of Colorado Boulder. Since 2017, the Natural Hazards Center has supported NIDIS’s mission to proactively manage drought risks and impacts and improve both near-term and long-term drought resilience. Specifically, the Natural Hazards Center—which serves as the nation’s National Science Foundation-designated information clearinghouse for the societal dimensions of hazards and disasters—has helped NIDIS communicate relevant drought information to a range of audiences, develop new tools including social science informed drought publications, and convene special drought-focused sessions at the annual Natural Hazards Research and Applications Workshop.

2) Objectives:

● Better understand and apply drought risk communication at regional and national scales

● Improve access and utilization of drought impact information into drought monitoring, communication, planning, and response efforts

3) Scope:

● Organize and implement a Workshop on Drought Risk Communication

● Conduct an assessment of drought impacts

● Provide guidance and content to improve NIDIS communications on drought risk for the U.S. Drought

Portal and the regional DEWS networks

4) Tasks:

Task details are provided below for the three elements listed above.

4.1 Organize and implement a Drought Risk Communication Workshop

Description: The objective of this task is to envision and carry out a 1.5 to 2-day Workshop on Drought Risk Communication. The Workshop, which will take place during this period of performance, will be held in Boulder, Colorado at the University of Colorado Boulder Institute of Behavioral Science.

The central goal of this Workshop is to take stock of the state of knowledge concerning drought risk communication efforts nationally and regionally. Specifically, the Workshop will identify what is known concerning drought risk communication efforts, advancements in social science informed risk communication efforts for drought and other natural hazards, ongoing challenges with effectively communicating drought risk across temporal and geographic scales and community contexts, and opportunities to advance collaborations, research, and tools to more effectively convey drought early warning messages and other risk information.

The Workshop will fulfill the following objectives:

● Make connections – Who is in the room and why? How can we deepen connections and collaborations in risk communication across hazard type and geographic regions?

● Understand developments and requirements – What are the responsibilities and contributions of NIDIS and other government agencies, private sector entities, and academic institutions concerning drought risk communication? What is the state of drought early warning—and how does this recent intervention connect to other risk communication efforts in the drought and all-hazards space?

● Review progress and gaps in drought risk communication research and applications – What progress has been made in this area of drought risk communication research and applications, and where are there remaining gaps and challenges?

● Offer recommendations – What near- and long-term recommendations do the participants have for advancing a research and practice agenda concerning drought risk communication nationally and regionally? What recommendations can NIDIS act on within their existing communication portfolio?

To fulfill these objectives, the Workshop will involve up to 50 researchers, practitioners, and policy makers who work on drought risk communication or risk communication efforts in associated hazard contexts such as extreme weather events (fire, heat, flooding, severe storms) or earthquakes. Representatives from NIDIS and the contractor are included in the 50 total participants. In addition, other NOAA representatives may be invited such as someone from the Weather Program Office, Climate Prediction Center, and other NOAA employees involved in hazard risk communication.

More specifically, the Workshop will include physical scientists as well as social scientists who hold expertise in best practices for risk communication. The Workshop will include presentations from leaders across sectors and will include a keynote presentation from a social scientist on core principles for effective risk communication to a range of audiences. The keynote will be selected in response to the literature review described below and in consultation between NIDIS and the contractor. Participants will be encouraged to think about how the identified key principles apply across hazard types, and also will be challenged to consider what is unique concerning the drought hazard (e.g., risk timescales, geographies, affected communities, drought impacts across sectors, different types of drought). Participants will be asked to consider whether it is worth identifying a single drought risk communication protocol for the nation, or if regional variability requires that we should have multiple protocols depending on the environmental, social, economic, and cultural context. Participants will also consider how to best integrate impact information into risk communication.

Participants will be chosen to reflect differences across several categories including ensuring that there is representation across academic disciplines, governmental / academic / private sector organizations, U.S.

regions, drought and other hazard types, career stage, etc. The inclusion of experts across academic disciplines, professional organizations, and hazard types is especially important for this Workshop, as many communities are facing “weather whiplash” related to, for example, cascading or compounding fire and flood events or water scarcity challenges followed by flooding events.

The main deliverable from this Workshop convening will be an approximately 10-page report that summarizes community-informed insights and recommendations regarding advancing a national and regional agenda on drought risk communication. To ensure recommendations are grounded in current efforts, Workshop participants will also be introduced to NIDIS initiatives such as the U.S. Drought Portal, the regional DEWS network, and other ongoing and emerging drought initiatives.

Outcome: Improved understanding on the state of science and best practices for communicating drought risk to support better informed and more timely decisions.

Specific Tasks:

Task 4.1.1 Kickoff Meeting Task 4.1.2 Regular Monthly Meetings Task 4.1.3 Literature Review Task 4.1.4 Workshop Description, Agenda, List of Read Ahead Materials, and Participant List Task 4.1.5 Workshop Meeting Logistics Task 4.1.6 Workshop Promotion and Communications Task 4.1.7 Workshop Convening Task 4.1.8 Post-Workshop Materials Summary and Final Report

Task Milestones:

Task Number

Task Title Work Milestones Projected Completion Date

4.1.1 Kickoff Meeting Detailed agenda for the full period of

performance, workplan, notes, action items.

Within 30 days of the date of the award.

4.1.2 Regular Meetings Meetings will be scheduled monthly (or as frequently as needed) between the contractor and the NIDIS team. The contractor will send a detailed agenda at least two work days prior to each meeting and will send notes and action items within two work days after each meeting.

Ongoing, monthly, throughout the period of performance.

4.1.3 Literature Review The literature review will identify key publications as well as key leaders in the drought and broader risk communication space. In addition, the review will include examples and/or case studies that may not be captured in the formal peer reviewed literature, but may be highlighted in professional outlets or meetings, for example. The literature review will culminate in a bibliography with citations, abstracts, and case examples to be shared with Workshop participants and will also help clarify possible read ahead materials to be shared with

Within 90 days of the date of the award.

Task Title Work Milestones Projected Completion Date participants. The literature review will inform the final invitation list, which will include key leaders in the drought risk communication space.

4.1.4 Workshop

Description, Agenda, List of Read Ahead Materials, and Participant List

The contractor, in collaboration with NIDIS, will produce a Workshop description that will clarify the goals and specific objectives for the meeting.

Once the description is complete, the contractor will produce a draft agenda, a list of read ahead materials, a participant list, and other key information.

These materials will be sent to the NIDIS team at least one week prior to a regularly scheduled monthly meeting, to allow time to review. The contractor will make any necessary updates based on feedback from NIDIS.

Within 200 days of the date of the award.

4.1.5 Workshop Logistics The contractor will arrange the Workshop meeting venue (including location, technology, etc.) and other logistics. The contractor will convey logistics for all invited participants.

Within 250 days of the date of the award.

4.1.6 Workshop

Promotion and Communications

The contractor will develop all email, online, and print communications related to the Workshop.

These materials will be disseminated as part of the Workshop invitation, preparation, and follow-up communications.

Ongoing throughout the period of performance.

4.1.7 Workshop

Convening

The contractor will assume lead responsibility for the Workshop convening including developing a detailed agenda that includes facilitation notes. This will ensure that the Workshop is interactive and that the stated purpose and objectives are met.

Within 400 days of the date of the award.

4.1.8 Post-Workshop

Materials Summary and Report

The contractor will compile all materials—such as PowerPoint slides, written notes, and graphic recordings—as part of the documentation from the Workshop. The contractor will also produce a 10-page report within 60 days of the completion of the convening. It will be shared with the NIDIS team to ensure time for feedback and integrating edits to the convening summary. The final report will be delivered to NIDIS by no later than the end of the award period.

Within 450 days of the date of

Task 4.2. Conduct an Assessment of Drought Impacts

Description: The objective of this task is to assess drought impact information to better understand the existence and potential utilization of drought impact data for drought monitoring, response, and communication. In addition to national data sets, there may be additional sources of data available at the state or regional level (e.g., ecological data-wildlife population or health, for instance; or agricultural yield or other impact data) that could be used to assess the impact of drought on the state or region. There is a need to not only understand where this impact data is, but to also correlate them with different drought indicators to assess the impact of various levels of drought.

The contractor will work closely with the NIDIS team to, first, understand what impact data are currently available, including the sources of data, sectors addressed, geographic and temporal scales covered, and other key features as collected at the local, state, regional, and/or federal level. The contractor will then use this assessment of the data to answer several questions including the following:

1. How is impact data collected and shared? Which entities are part of that value-chain of information development, sharing, and utilization?

2. Does sufficient and appropriate impact data exist to understand when conditions are changing, including in other socio-economic sectors beyond agriculture?

3. What can available impact data reveal that might be useful to communicating drought conditions and drought risk?

4. How does impact data correlate with current drought indicators to help users understand potential or actual impacts of various levels of drought?

5. How might these data be utilized to enhance the effectiveness of drought early warning, as well as drought response (e.g. making state declarations) and planning (e.g. setting thresholds and triggers in drought contingency plans)? What other data might be necessary to improve usefulness?

6. Are there opportunities to improve the existing drought impact tables as they relate to the U.S.

Drought Monitor?

7. Can the data improve current indicators and enhance what features of drought are being monitored?

One to two doctoral level researchers at the contractor will work together with the NIDIS team to identify what research and data on drought impacts has already been compiled in the creation of the drought planning platform. The contractor will document the data, and will present monthly updates to the NIDIS team as key questions are being answered including how impacts are currently defined, how well does impact data correlate with drought indicators, how impacts do or do not tie into risk and vulnerability planning, and what physical as well as socio-economic impacts are currently being measured as part of available datasets. This Task, which will provide a proof of concept, will focus only on the Midwest Drought Early Warning System (DEWS), working closely with the Midwest DEWS Coordinator at NIDIS. Outcomes from Task 1 can be utilized and integrated into Task 2.

This Task will provide an assessment on what impact data is available, how the impact data correlates with drought indicators, and how impact data is currently being used, how impact data can be further utilized, and what data might need to be collected to further improve drought early warning and drought risk communication. Outcomes of this task, focused on the Midwest DEWS, will provide methodologies and findings that can be scaled up to other regional DEWS at the completion of this project.

Outcome: Improved understanding and integration of impact data into NIDIS regional drought monitoring and communications

Specific Tasks:

Task 4.2.1 Kickoff Meeting Task 4.2.2 Regular Monthly Meetings Task 4.2.3 Impact Data Assessment - Current Task 4.2.4 Updated Impact Tables Task 4.2.5 Impact Data Needs - Future

Task Title Work Milestones Projected Completion Date

4.2.1 Kickoff Meeting Detailed agenda for the full period of

performance, workplan, notes, action items.

Within 60 days of the date of the award.

4.2.2 Regular Monthly

Meetings

Meetings will be scheduled monthly (or as frequently as needed) between the contractor and the NIDIS team. The contractor will send a detailed agenda at least two work days prior to each meeting and will send notes and action items within two work days after each meeting.

Ongoing, monthly, throughout the period of performance.

4.2.3 Impact Data

Assessment - Current

The contractor will meet with NIDIS staff and their partners to assess the state of current impact data in the Midwest DEWS, and how it is being used in drought early warning and response, including drought communications. This assessment will include a summary of data sources and data types across geographic and temporal scales. This document will also include an overview of how the impact data correlates with drought indicators, and potentially a review of where impact data comes from and how that information flows through the Midwest DEWS.

Within 400 days of the date of the award.

4.2.4 Updated Impact

Tables

The contractor, in collaboration with NIDIS staff, will generate updated Impact Tables for the states in the Midwest DEWS, following an assessment on correlation between indicators.

Within 450 days of the date of

Task Title Work Milestones Projected Completion Date

4.2.5 Impact Data Needs

- Future The contractor, in collaboration with NIDIS, will generate a document that summarizes how impact data can be further utilized, and what data might need to be collected (and from what sources) to further improve drought early warning and drought risk communication.

Within 500 days of the date of

Task 4.3. Provide guidance and content to improve the NIDIS communications on drought impacts and risk for the U.S. Drought Portal and the regional DEWS networks.

Description: Task 3 will integrate research and lessons from Task 1 and Task 2 and provide a list of recommended actions that NIDIS can take to improve drought early warning communication and monitoring, as defined by the NIDIS Public Law. This should include, but is not limited to, recommendations for the U.S.

Drought Portal (e.g. modifying existing content, drought impact tables, drought planning platform) and regional DEWS (e.g. presenting information in Drought Status Reports and other forms of communication, connecting impacts to drought indicators).

Outcome: Improved drought early warning communications that more effectively integrate drought impacts and drought risk

Specific Tasks:

Task 4.3.1 Review current activities at NIDIS relevant to impacts and communications Task 4.3.2 Provide a draft list of opportunities for NIDIS to improve drought early warning communications, using deliverables from Task 1 and Task 2 Task 4.3.3 Deliver final recommendations to NIDIS

Task Title Work Milestones Projected Completion Date

4.3.1 Review current

activities at NIDIS relevant to communications

This will require that the contractor and the NIDIS team work collaboratively to develop an internal assessment of existing activities. This assessment will focus specifically on

Within 550 days of award

Task Title Work Milestones Projected Completion Date communications concerning various key NIDIS products.

4.3.2 Develop a draft list

of opportunities for NIDIS to improve drought early warning communications

The contractor will develop and provide a list of opportunities for NIDIS to improve drought early warning communications, using deliverables from Task 1 and Task 2. This should include recommendations for (1) drought.gov, and (2) regional drought early warning systems. The contractor will schedule a half-day meeting with NIDIS to present and discuss the recommendations while soliciting input and feedback from NIDIS.

Within 650 days of award

4.3.3 Deliver final

recommendations to NIDIS

The contractor will provide NIDIS a final list of specific recommendations, with guidance and templates and specific content (e.g. new language on drought.gov; new drought impact tables; new templates for regional communications) that can help inform NIDIS outward facing communication efforts to scientists, policymakers, and the public.

Within 700 days of award

5) Not Used.

6) Not Used.

7) Assumptions, Dependencies and Constraints

No significant dependencies or constraints.

8) Government-Furnished Property, Material, Equipment, or Information (GFP, GFM, GFE, or GFI)

Not Applicable.