STATEMENT_OF_WORK_FBO.pdf

STATEMENT OF WORK

Period of Performance: September 1, 2017 – August 31, 2018

I. Description of Work and Services:

The contractor shall provide the following services to assist the Hawaiian Monk Seal Research Program in its mission. Most listed tasks are ongoing and are conducted annually and/or as requested by PIFSC.

Data Analysis: The contractor shall perform tasks associated with the compilation, statistical analysis, and interpretation of numerical data.

Simulation Modeling: A simulation model specific to the Hawaiian monk seal was developed through a collaborative effort between biologists with the Pacific Island Fisheries Science Center and researchers at Montana State University. The model is designed to represent the life history of the monk seal as realistically as possible, and to fully capture all of the uncertainties in demographic rates and system processes that influence the long-term dynamics of the population. It is intended as both an exploratory tool for management and a predictive tool to better understand the implications of current population trends and natural perturbations. To date, the model has been used to assist NMFS in a number of management decisions.

Technical Writing and Report Preparation: The contractor shall provide assistance (or take the lead) in preparing written reports and permits. These shall include, but are not limited to, reports describing the results from the analyses undertaken in item 1 of this contract; internal documents related to monk seal biology or management; documents related to the revised Monk Seal Recovery Plan (or other materials useful to the Monk Seal Recovery Team); and other documents as requested. The contractor may be asked to produce plots, figures, tables or other visual aids to be used in presentations or reports in preparation by other personnel. The contractor shall provide assistance in summarizing data, providing simulation results of effects of proposed federal actions, justifying study design or writing protocols to support permit applications or complete NEPA or other requirements that arise from the permit application process.

Study design of major program initiatives and program efficiency reviews: The contractor shall work with the PIFSC staff and their partners to design, conduct and evaluate research under the three main program initiatives (Population Assessment, Enhancement Activities, and Health Studies).

Modification to Stochastic Simulation Model: The contractor shall modify or add modules to the extant stochastic simulation model to address novel needs for analysis of HMSRP derived population datasets.

The contractor may also be asked to make recommendations for improving various aspects of the monk seal data collection and data management system.

Attendance at Meetings, Workshops, and Conferences: The contractor shall attend scientific or public meetings and make presentations as requested. These meetings shall include, but are not limited to, Monk Seal Recovery Team meetings, formal reviews of program elements, and special topic meetings relevant to monk seal biology and/or management. The contractor may be asked to interact with members of the monk seal research team, or participate in special projects related to monk seal research and management.

Expert Consultation: The contractor shall provide expert consultation on issues pertaining to monk seal conservation as requested by the contracting office. This will frequently involve technical review and editing of scientific manuscripts, reports and other documents produced by PIFSC and its collaborators.

This task also includes any services requested by the contracting office that are not adequately described by the other tasks outlined in this Statement of Work.

II. Deliverables (performance dates in bold)

Study design of major program initiatives and program efficiency reviews

1) Analysis to support translocation and rehabilitation decision making and evaluation of benefits for FY18 Northwestern Hawaiian Island Monk Seal Research Cruises. Approx.

March 2018 and July 2018.

2) Develop design for analysis, in collaboration with HMSRP staff, to evaluate the plausible range of various mortality from causes in the MHI (fishery interactions, toxoplasmosis, etc.)

and estimate how mitigation of the various threats would affect population status. Sept 2017– May 2018

3) Provide demographic analysis support for development of translocation scenarios for Mediterranean monk seals in collaboration with PIFSC HMSRP and Mediterranean monk seal conservation programs. Nov – Dec 2017

4) Provide demographic analysis support investigation of captive breeding as a potential future tool for monk seal conservation. Nov. 2017

5) In collaboration with PIFSC researchers, re-analyze MHI age-specific reproductive rates, incorporating information on possible or probable unobserved parturition, uncertainties/biases associated with small sample sizes for some ages, and uncertainty in the actual age of minimum-aged females first observed as adults February 2018

6) Evaluate temporal changes in monk seal distribution among islets at atoll subpopulations, potentially relating such changes to altered habitat availability and evaluating correlation with juvenile survival. Aug 2018

Annual Population Summaries: Complete annual updates to demographic analyses to generate vital rates, model projections and various metrics of conservation efficacy and population status.

Work is to be initiated as soon as new field data are made available and completed in a timely manner. In collaboration with Dr. Jason Baker, write relevant sections for the annual population summaries for circulation to PIFSC staff, Recovery Team, MMC and other bodies. January 2018

Model Modification and Development:

1) General- Extend demographic model to provide output for research and enhancement action evaluation. For example, collate and report sighting histories of translocated seals such that the efficacy of various translocation experiments may be more readily evaluated. Various analysis approaches are being considered, such that perfecting the associated computer programs is an ongoing task. As needed.

2) Alter existing reproductive rate estimation methods to incorporate new information reflecting uncertainty in female reproductive histories. As needed.

3) Modify existing, or create new modeling tools for calculating newly developed metrics for recovery and population evaluation. For example, to the degree possible, automate the “silver bb” analysis for estimating the benefits of interventions to improve fitness of individual seals.

July 2018

4) Will make necessary modifications to existing modeling tools to assist with recovery and science planning for Mauritanian population of Mediterranean monk seals. As needed.

Simulation Model Projections:

1) Complete annual simulation model runs to evaluate significance of changes in vital rates, management programs, and other factors. Write and submit a report summarizing key findings from the updated runs, including an interpretation of how those results influence programmatic planning, effectiveness of interventions, and other aspects of management and recovery.

December 2017

2) Simulation modeling to support recovery strategies for the Mediterranean monk seal based on experience and tools developed by PIFSC Hawaiian Monk Seal Research Program. Will work closely with PIFSC staff and external partners to model translocation scenarios for the Mauritanian population of monk seals. Sept – Oct 2017

3) Simulation modeling to support evaluation of captive breeding as a tool for monk seals conservation. Provide projections under various scenarios agreed by PIFSC and partners. As needed.

Technical Writing

1) Planned Reports/Publications In cooperation with PIFSC scientists, the contractor will play a major role in multiple reports/publications:

a) Manuscript or report on the relative demographic impact of various mortality sources on the MHI monk seal population. Aug. 2018

b) Contribute to writing report on captive breeding of Hawaiian monk seals. Ongoing

2) Review/edit other scientific, administrative or management-related material as requested by

PIFSC. As needed

3) Documentation of modifications to stochastic simulation model and analyses that generate model input values. As needed

4) Documentation of modeling and risk assessment for translocation planning for the Mauritanian population of monk seals. January 2018

Program Maintenance and Updates: Ensure that all computer software written or currently managed by the contractor is properly maintained, stored and documented so that it is accessible and useable by other parties should the contractor cease to hold primary responsibility for these programs. This task includes, but is not limited to: ensuring that the programs are consistent with current PIFSC database formats and protocols; are externally documented to clearly state the program’s application, and required input and output files, and relationship to other programs; are internally documented for such features as program flow, variable declarations, and other program components; and any other tasks necessary to reinforce the programs durability and utility. Past experience indicates that up to 15% of the contractor’s time may be required to address these issues.

Expert Consultation: Will participate on conference calls with PIFSC HMSRP staff, Mediterranean monk seal researchers and other stakeholders to consult on the development and implementation of a pilot translocation program for Mauritanian seals. As needed.

Attendance at Meetings: Will participate in scientific meetings to discuss monk seal recovery science, including but not limited to, several tele-conferences on captive breeding. As needed.