Oxford Economics JOFOC for SAM.gov_Redacted.pdf

SOLE SOURCE FOR AN ACTION EXCEEDING THE

SIMPLIFIED ACQUISITION THRESHOLD

USING SIMPLIFIED PROCEDURES FOR CERTAIN COMMERCIAL ITEMS

(AUTHORITY: FAR 13.501(a), 41 U.S.C. 1901)

1. Identification of the Agency and the Contracting activity:

On behalf of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Headquarters Procurement Services (MA-64), located in Washington, D.C., proposes to enter into a contract on the basis of other than full and open competition for the following services from Oxford Economics USA, Inc.: Oxford Economics Global Macro and Industrial Data Services; Global Economic and Industrial Models (GEM and GIM); continuous updates to the EIA-Oxford Economics World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS+); Global Activity Module (GLAM) transfer system; and a one-time expansion of inputs in the transfer system from EIA’s WEPS+ to the GEM/GIM to include electricity demand data. This document sets forth the justification and approval for the use of a sole source acquisition found at Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) 13.5 and in accordance with 41 U.S. Code § 1901 and FAR subpart 13.5 procedures.

2. Nature and/or Description of Action being approved:

EIA intends to award a new, sole source, Firm-Fixed Price (FFP) contract to Oxford Economics USA, Inc. with a one-year base period of June 27, 2023 to June 26, 2024, and four (4) one-year options.

The Office of Energy Markets and Financial Analysis (EMFA) within the EIA Office of Energy Analysis (OEA) is responsible for providing projections of economic activity at the macro and industrial levels to the WEPS+. WEPS+ is the modeling system that supports the International Energy Outlook (IEO), the development of EIA's world oil price, and other analyses related to international energy markets. EMFA uses Oxford Economics' GEM and GIM, in conjunction with their transfer system, to provide projections of economic activity to WEPS+.

This is a sole-source action to purchase access to the following information model and subscription/data services:

a) The Global Industrial Model (GIM);

b) The Global Economic Model (GEM);

c) The Global Industrial Data Service;

d) The Global Macro Data Service;

e) Continuous updates to the GLAM Transfer System; and

f) A one-time expansion of inputs from WEPS to GEM/GIM in the transfer system to include electricity demand data.

3. Description of Supplies/Services required to meet the Agency’s needs including the estimated value:

The following is a description of EIA’s requirements, available only from Oxford Economics USA, Inc.:

a) The Global Industrial Model (GIM):

The Global Industry Model provides industry forecasts and gives EIA the ability to build their own projections. The model provides the impacts of key macro drivers across 77 countries and allows EIA to build their own forecast scenarios using a simple menu-driven interface, export data, and view outputs in dashboards, heat maps, and charts, along with import data into EIA's WEPS+ model.

b) Global Economic Model (GEM):

The Global Economic Model (extension) is a globally integrated economic model that covers 85 countries and the Eurozone. It is used to address a wide range of economic topics, such as the impact of oil price changes. The model allows EIA to efficiently build their own forecasting scenarios and view outputs in dashboards, heat maps, or charts, with the ability to import the data into EIA's WEPS+ model.

c) Global Industry Data Service:

The Global Industry Data Service provides historical, current, and forecast data and analysis for the world's key industrial and emerging markets. The vendor uses a global economic and sectoral model to ensure that industry forecasts are both accurate and consistent with world economic conditions, along with forecasts by sector under alternate risk scenarios. This data service includes regular industry updates, quarterly world summary reports, supplementary base forecasts, and scenario data and tables.

d) The Global Macro Data Service:

The Global Macro Data Service provides EIA with regularly updated research, analysis, and commentary on global macroeconomic activity that is consistent with model and data forecasts and projections. This data service provides macro monitoring tools, with access to event-driven analysis, insights on key data releases, regular country reports, and a forecast economic databank to assess the impact of macro events across 200 countries.

e) Oxford Economics Model/Data Enhancements - GLAM Transfer System Continuous Updates:

The contractor continuously updates the EIA-Oxford Economics data transfer system as necessary to support annual GLAM improvements and extensions. The improvements allow EIA to modify region or industry definitions and create new regions or industries within the model.

EIA uses information from Oxford Economics' models and subscription services on a daily basis to provide projections of economic activity to WEPS+ in order to develop the IEO, OEA's primary publication. The information models/transfer systems are proprietary to Oxford Economics;

updates to the systems can therefore only can only be performed by Oxford Economics staff.

f) Oxford Economics Model/Data Enhancements – One Time Transfer System Expansion:

The contractor will expand inputs from WEPS to GEM/GIM in the transfer system to include electricity demands (DELEC). The improvements will allow EIA to dynamically link economic modeling to additional electricity expertise to be used in support of the IEO and WEPS. The contractor will deliver the transfer system update by December 2023.

The following are EIA’s requirements broken down by the base and option years:

Item Description Base Year

CLIN 00001

Oxford Economics Global Industry Model Subscription. The contractor must provide quarterly updates to the global industry model for 10 users.

Base Year

CLIN 00002

Oxford Economics Global Economic Model Subscription. The contractor must provide monthly updates to the global economic model for 10 users

Base Year

CLIN 00003

Oxford Economics Global Industry Data Service Subscription; The contractor must provide continual updates to the global industry service for 20 users

Base Year

CLIN 00004

Oxford Economics Macro Service Data Subscription; The contractor must provide continual updates to the global macro service for 20 users

Base Year

CLIN 00005

Continuous updates to transfer system between Oxford Economics and EIA

Base Year

CLIN 00006

One time transfer system expansion to include electricity demand (DELEC)

Option Year 1

CLIN 10001

Oxford Economics Global Industry Model Subscription. The contractor must provide quarterly updates to the global industry model for 10 users.

Option Year 1

CLIN 10002

Oxford Economics Global Economic Model Subscription. The contractor must provide monthly updates to the global economic model for 10 users

Option Year 1

CLIN 10003

Oxford Economics Global Industry Data Service Subscription; The contractor must provide continual updates to the global industry service for 20 users

Option Year 1

CLIN 10004

Oxford Economics Macro Service Data Subscription; The contractor must provide continual updates to the global macro service for 20 users

Option Year 1

CLIN 10005

Continuous updates to transfer system between Oxford Economics and EIA

Option Year 2

CLIN 20001

Oxford Economics Global Industry Model Subscription. The contractor must provide quarterly updates to the global industry model for 10 users.

Option Year 2

CLIN 20002

Oxford Economics Global Economic Model Subscription. The contractor must provide monthly updates to the global economic model for 10 users

Option Year 2

CLIN 20003

Oxford Economics Global Industry Data Service Subscription; The contractor must provide continual updates to the global industry service for 20 users

Option Year 2

CLIN 20004

Oxford Economics Macro Service Data Subscription; The contractor must provide continual updates to the global macro service for 20 users

Option Year 2

CLIN 20005

Continuous updates to transfer system between Oxford Economics and EIA

Option Year 3

CLIN 30001

Oxford Economics Global Industry Model Subscription. The contractor must provide quarterly updates to the global industry model for 10 users.

Option Year 3

CLIN 30002

Oxford Economics Global Economic Model Subscription. The contractor must provide monthly updates to the global economic model for 10 users

Option Year 3

CLIN 30003

Oxford Economics Global Industry Data Service Subscription; The contractor must provide continual updates to the global industry service for 20 users necessary for future modeling needed for the IEO’s projections. Additionally, WEPS+ requires coverage of at least 84 countries and 70 sectors of these countries for industrial and economic projections, which only Oxford Economics can provide. The WEPS+ model framework would have to be entirely re-created if OEA were to procure any other model/data. Re-building or replacing the WEPS+ model would require several years, during which the IEO would remain stagnant, and approximately $7 million would be expended to acquire the unique experts, support, and contracts to build a new framework to support another model. Further, the use of other models would require EIA to significantly revise current mission-essential data models, including the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), WEPS+, and others, causing a significant delay in providing mission essential statistics and data.

6. A description of efforts made to ensure that offers are solicited from as many potential sources as is practical, including whether a notice was or will be publicized as required by Subpart 5.2 and if not, which exception under 5.202 applies:

On April 24, 2023, a notification of this proposed contract action was posted to SAM.gov with a closing date of May 9, 2023. No responses were received in response.

7. A determination by the contracting officer that the anticipated cost to the

Government will be fair and reasonable:

No award shall be made until the Contracting Officer determines the cost to the Government to be fair and reasonable. This determination will be based on a comparison of the proposed price with prices found reasonable on previous purchases and market research. The Contracting Officer contends that there is ample historical information and market pricing data available to arrive at a fair and reasonable price for this effort.

8. A description of the market research conducted:

Market research was conducted on three levels to determine whether other sources of this data exist.

First, on March 20, 2023, EIA made inquiries to Oxford Economics about other vendors authorized to sell its Oxford Economics GIM, GEM, Global Industry Data Service and Macro Service Data.

Oxford Economics responded with an email on March 23, 2023 confirming the services are solely provided by Oxford Economics (i.e., no authorized reseller available). Second, a 15-day Notice of Intent to Sole Source this for these services was posted on SAM.gov from April 24, 2023 and closed May 9, 2023, and no responses were received. Third, EIA analysts remain up to date on the market for data and consulting services through regular meetings with the industry, and EIA is confident that there are no other available sources for the data it requires from Oxford Economics.

9. Any other facts supporting the use of other than full and open competition :

N/A

10. A listing of Sources, if any, that expressed, in writing, an interest in the acquisition:

N/A

11. A statement of actions, if any, that were taken to remove or overcome any barriers to competition:

Continuing tactical market research is the best means to ensure adequate competition in this area. If in the future, the models become non-proprietary, or requirements dictate replacing the models, every effort will be exercised to ensure a competitive acquisition would be executed. Prior to exercising each option, the agency will perform market research to verify that there are no vendors that could meet this requirement. If there are vendors that could potentially meet the requirement, the agency will use competitive procedures to procure this requirement.