SOW_Software_-_FRAM3_.docx

Performance Work Statement National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) Northwest Fisheries Science Center (NWFSC), FRAM Division Data-Moderate Assessment Research Services

NFFP7410-19-03274

Background

The Magnuson-Stevens Act obligates the National Marine Fisheries Service to develop research and guidance for managing fish stocks that are included in Fishery Management Plans (FMPs), which are developed by regional Fishery Management Councils. The Northwest Fishery Science Center (NWFSC), and in particular the Fishery Resource Analysis and Monitoring (FRAM) Division, have lead responsibility for providing science products to the Pacific Fishery Management Council (PFMC) to inform the management of groundfish species. FRAM Division collects fishery-dependent and -independent data, as well as producing fishery and economic analyses, and fish stock assessments, which provide estimates of the status and trends of west coast groundfish species, as well as guidance on allowable future harvests.

The PFMC has a biennial assessment cycle in which a limited number of species can be assessed and reviewed every odd-numbered year. Most of these assessments have been benchmark assessments, which are very resource consumptive, normally requiring 6-9 months of development and a week-long review meeting for 1-2 species. In some cases, these models can be updated with new data, in a more expedited manner, but typically fewer than 40% of biennial assessments are updates of this type. Many species lack the level of data completeness to be well-suited for an extensive benchmark assessment, and resources for both assessment development and review are highly constraining.

The Groundfish FMP contains over 90 species, but only about a third have ever had benchmark assessments, and many of those are 8-10 years old. The simplest, catch-only assessment methods do not provide information on stock status, and do not allow the agency to monitor whether those stocks are overfished (monitoring that is called for in the Magnuson-Stevens Act). More options for producing assessments for species with intermediate levels of data are needed to achieve higher biennial rates of assessment development and review. The availability of more intermediate assessment options was strongly recommended by the panel which provided the 2014 programmatic review of the NWFSC’s Stock Assessment and Review processes.

The timing of the proposed research is important because the Council, and its advisors, will begin in March, 2020, considering which species will be assessed and reviewed in 2021. No new approaches (e.g. use of length data in a data-moderate assessment) which have not been reviewed and at least tentatively accepted by March/April 2020 will be considered for use in 2021. Failure to gain approval from the PFMC and its Scientific and Statistical Committee (SSC) for a length-based LIME or SS assessment approach early in the 2020 prioritization process will delay the use of such an alternative until at least 2023, and will delay our ability to increase the production of management guidance to the PFMC. Identifying an acceptable length-based approach for use in 2021 will address the PFMC’s desire for greater assessment throughput, as well as the Agency’s new Stock Assessment Improvement Plans call for “right-sized” assessments. Additionally, a new policy adopted this spring by the PFMC will increase the uncertainty buffer for assessment forecasts as the assessment products age. This will reduce the amounts of catch available from older assessment forecasts, relative to the former (constant-buffer) policy. Consequently, a failure to increase throughput will reduce the potential fishery value for some species.

Tasks

Key tasks include the following:

1) Simulation testing

· Develop simulated data sets for use in testing assessment model performance in producing precise, unbiased estimates of stock status and harvest recommendations.

· These data sets will reflect the temporal availability of length and catch data observed for major near-shore rockfish species along the west coast (i.e. catch time series of 30-60 years, with 15-40 years of length-composition data).

· Assessment models to be tested will be constructed using both the Stock Synthesis (SS) platform, which is used for most west coast groundfish assessments, and the Length-based Integrated Mixed Effects (LIME) assessment platform, which was created to improve assessment performance in situations that are highly dependent on fish-length data.

· Performance summaries of assessments conducted using each modeling platform will be provided for two rockfish-like species with maximum ages of 25 and 45 years.

2) Comparisons using reduced data sets from existing benchmark assessments

· In consultation with NWFSC scientists, identify two species with existing benchmark assessments and appropriate data availability and life history characteristics for application of length-focused assessment methods.

· For those two species, document the precision and accuracy of the LIME and SS modeling platforms, relative to existing benchmark assessment results, as the full benchmark data sets are reduced to increase the assessments’ reliance of length and catch data.

· In addition to one model containing only the benchmark catch and length time series, 1-3 intermediate scenarios, with limited availability of other data types, should be tested.

3) Participate in a formal review process of methods and findings from this analysis

· Prepare presentation slides and written documentation for summarizing analytical methods and findings.

· Participate in a methods review meeting that will be organized the Groundfish Sub-committee of the PFMC’s SSC.

· Conduct and summarize additional analyses requested by reviewers.

· Continue exploration of modeling alternatives until at least one length-focused, data-moderate assessment approach that includes length-composition data has been endorsed for use by the SSC.

Deliverables

1. Documentation of LIME assessment platform for SSC review.

2. Documentation of simulated data sets, species characteristics, and analytical methods utilized in Part 1.

3. For Part 1, summarization of the divergence of estimates, using LIME and SS assessment platforms, of stock size and status and harvest amounts, based on PFMC default harvest rates from the true simulated values.

4. Documentation of the species and data scenarios included in Part 2.

5. For Part 2, summarization of the divergence of estimates, using LIME and SS assessment platforms, from the benchmark assessment values of stock size and status and harvest amounts, based on PFMC default harvest rates.

6. Prepare a slide-show presentation summarizing methods and findings from Parts 1 and 2, and attend a methods review meeting in the January-February 2020 timeframe.

7. Following the Methods Review, document additional research and findings developed in response to requests by the review panel. (as needed)

8. Provide written recommendations for future research to improve data-moderate assessment performance.

Requirements The proposed Contractor must have experience in the following:

· Development, execution, and evaluation of assessment models using the Stok Synthesis (SS) modeling platform.

· Development, execution, and evaluation of assessment models using length/age-structured assessment modeling platforms, such as LIME, that are written in Template Model Builder (TMB).

· Development, execution, and evaluation of computer code written in the R programming language to process and summarize assessment model data and outputs.

· Familiarity with the life-history characteristics of nearshore, west coast groundfish species.

· Developing performance metrics and milestones.

· Working with a team of professional assessment scientists.

· Excellent verbal and written communication skills.

Performance Period of Performance: Services to be fully completed by 6/20/2020

· Deliverables 1-6 must be completed by January 20, 2020.

· If needed, Deliverable 7 must be completed by March 20, 2020.

· Deliverable 8 must be delivered by May 15, 2020

Place of Performance: To be determined by mutual agreement of the parties.

Point of Contact:

Chris Luecken Chris.luecken@noaa.gov

(206) 860-3424