NFFS71002202149 Statement of Need for RFQ 05062022.pdf

STATEMENT OF NEED – Climate oceanographic data products Purchase Request Number: NFFS7100-22-02149

PURPOSE:

Background:

Fundamental knowledge gaps exist in the spawning dynamics of Pacific cod in the Bering Sea that impact the distribution, timing, and spawning output of the stock and how it responds to climate extremes (e.g., loss of sea ice). Climate oceanographic data products (e.g., temperature, light, pH, oxygen) are needed to address a new concern for management on how, whether, and when to assess Pacific cod moving north outside the standard survey area. Overall, annual projections of spawning distribution require oceanographic indicators for use in Ecosystem-based Fisheries Management under changing climate conditions in Alaska.

Objective:

We require climate oceanographic data products to expand upon current research investigating the effects of climate change on commercial fish species in Alaska. To understand future ocean conditions, these data products need to be linked to computer-based models of the earth's climate that are updated under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), a collaborative framework designed to improve knowledge of climate change. The most current models under varying emission scenarios were released in Phase 6 of the international CMIP collaboration (i.e., CMIP6). Future ocean conditions based on CMIP6 models have management and ecosystem implications for commercially important Pacific cod as well as other species with commercial or societal importance in the Bering Sea, including other groundfish, crab, and marine mammals that feed on fish, crab, or other prey affected by the physical oceanographic environment. Coupling CMIP6 models to a regional ocean conditions (i.e., statistical downscaling) is a computationally intensive process, but provides fisheries managers the ability to prepare for ecosystem impacts years in advance. As such, spatial-temporal habitat models based on these downscaled oceanographic data projections are valuable for risk assessment and response planning. These include data visualizations of future fish spawning spawning locations and regions likely to experience high rates of habitat degradation due to climate stress.

Technical specifications:

CMIP6 models need to be statistically downscaled for ocean oxygen, salinity, pH, and temperature for surface and bottom depths funder three climate CMIP6 emission scenarios SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 for the period 1993-2100. The statistical downscaling should follow a two-step procedure 1) bias adjustment of the original coarse resolution CMIP6 data 2) statistical downscaling of CMIP6 to high resolution. Both the bias correction and the statistical downscaling require a statistical approach called quantile mapping. The bias adjustment corrects systematic errors in the climate data and minimizes the errors between observed and modeled values for the historical control period. Additional coarse-scale measurement of light irradiance reaching the ocean surface water column is also required under two CMIP6 scenarios, SSP245, and SSP585 for the period 1993-2100. This climate data products need to be conducted using 6 CMIP6 models and/or realizations (e.g., r1i1p1f1) depending on availability for priority areas 1- 4 (defined by:

NOAA region 1:401-62N, 150-121W NOAA region 2: 40-62N, 180-149W NOAA region 3: 61-73N, 150-121W NOAA region 4: 61-73N, 180-149W

A subset of the following climate models is required for the climate downscaling in the 4 priority areas.

• UKESM1-LL

• CanESM5

• CanESM5-CanOE

• GFDL-ESM4

• IPSL-CM6A-LR

• CMCC-ESM2

• CMCC-CM2-SR5

• MIROC-ES2L

• MRI-ESM2-0

Deliverables:

1) Downscaled climate data (temperature, oxygen, salinity, pH)--- Statistical downscaling of 6 CMIP6 models for the 4 NOAA regions for three scenarios SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 for four variables (temperature, oxygen, salinity, pH) for surface and bottom depths for the period 1993-2100.

o Delivery will be one file per CMIP6 model/realization per variable per realm (surface, bottom) per scenario (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585) (approximately 600- 700MB per file) o One ensemble file containing the average and standard deviation across model results o Short report of maximum 5 pages, including some summary plots of the downscaling and detailed description of the methodology o No analysis of data is included

2) Downscaled climate data (chlorophyll)---Statistical downscaling of depth-integrated (0-

50 m) chlorophyll (chl) for three scenarios SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 for the period 1993-2100. This downscaling will be conducted using 6 CMIP6 models or realizations depending on availability for this region. The models used are the same as for Deliverable 1.

o Exploratory statistical downscaling of 6 CMIP6 models the 4 priority areas for three scenarios SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 for variable chlorophyll for the surface and, where possible, at intermediate-depth of 20 m for chlorophyll for the period 1993-2100 o Delivery will be one file per CMIP6 model/realization per variable per realm (surface, bottom) per scenario (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585) (approximately 600- 700MB per file) o One ensemble file containing the average and standard deviation across model results o Two pages report amended to report delivered in task 1 that includes summary plots of the downscaling and detailed description of the methodology o No analysis of data is included

3) Downscaled climate data (sea-ice concentration)--- Exploratory statistical downscaling and analysis of sea-ice concentration (siconc) for surface depth for three scenarios SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 for the period 1993-2100. This downscaling will be conducted using 6 CMIP6 models or realizations depending on availability for the priority areas. The models used are the same as for Deliverable 1.

o Delivery will be one file per CMIP6 model/realization per variable per realm (surface, bottom) per scenario (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585) (approximately 600- 700MB per file) o One ensemble file containing the average and standard deviation across model results o Two-page report amended to report delivered in Deliverable 1 that includes summary plots of the downscaling and detailed description of the methodology o No analysis of data is included

4) Climate data (light irradiance)--- Coarse-scale CMIP6 area-integrated spectrally quantified irradiance reaching the ocean surface water column under two scenarios, SSP245, and SSP585 for the period 1993-2100. The models used are 3 CMIP6 models.

o The area integrated values are based on the NOAA priority areas used by the downscaling for Deliverables 1-3 and cover the period 1993-2100 o Delivery will consist of 4 files, one per region with detailed description of the methodology o The files (CSV format) will be an ensemble product of the coarse-scale CMIP6 models used as forcing for the quantifications of light.

o No analysis is included, and no summary or plots of light will be added to the report.

IT Requirements:

This order will not require assignment of a user account nor access to DOC data systems. This contractor will not need access to Government hardware, application software, system software, or sensitive data.

Delivery date:

No later than September 1, 2022.

Shipping Address:

PROVIDED UPON AWARD

Point of contact:

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