18-03791_-_Statement_of_Work_NFFP73001803791_-_FBO.pdf

NOAA/NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES SERVICE

NORTHWEST FISHERIES SCIENCE CENTER

FISH ECOLOGY DIVISION

Purchase Request NFFP7300-18-03791

Analyzing the Effects of Hydro-system Operations and Climate-Change induced Ocean Conditions on Federally Listed Salmon

NOAA PROJECT LEADER: TO BE PROVIDED AT TIME OF AWARD

Period of Performance: Date of Award – September 30, 2019

Introduction The current Biological Opinion (Biop) for the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS), which sets operations for the Snake and Columbia River hydropower system, expires on December 31, 2018. Therefore, a new biological opinion must be completed prior to January 1, 2019. In addition, a new Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) on the operation of the hydrosystem must be developed over the next several years. Furthermore, the ocean climate is expected to change over the next few decades due to climate change. Therefore, we need mechanisms to help NOAA Fisheries evaluate potential responses of salmonid populations to changes in hydrosystem operations and changes in ocean conditions.

In order to evaluate the potential responses, the Northwest Fisheries Science Center (NWFSC) is seeking a vendor to develop several modules or model components covering hydrosystem scenarios and ocean conditions that can be embedded into its existing population or life-cycle model. As part of the ongoing Life Cycle Modeling project, the NWFSC has developed a multiple population Integrated Population Model (Bayesian state-space model) for Columbia Basin Spring and Spring/Summer Chinook Evolutionarily Significant Units (ESUs). The first generation model is developed and NWFSC requires the vendor to create an extended version that will incorporate:

a) alternative hydro operations;

b) the ability to simulate and evaluate alternative climate scenarios;

c) the ability to model management options and changes in environmental conditions and express results in terms of population viability metrics.

NWFSC requires the ability to add the hydro and ocean model modules (developed by the vendor) into the expanded version, so that NWFSC can use it as a harvest management tool to inform NOAA’s West Coast Regional Office.

Scope of Work

1) Download data from the NWFSC Salmon Population Summary (SPS) database on population level estimates of annual spawning escapements, levels, age structure and harvest rates.

2) Expand upon the simple adult to adult state-space model developed at the NWFSC, but allow for additional information such alternative hydro operations and climate scenarios. In particular, NWFSC has developed scenarios of future hydrosystem operations, including increased spill over dams, and we have described how these will impact juvenile survival. NWFSC has also developed future ocean survival scenarios based on increasing sea-surface temperatures. Now we need to develop modules so that we can evaluate these life-stage specific survival processes into the overall population model framework. This will enable NWFSC to describe overall impacts on populations under different conditions.

3) Develop modules (written in Stan language using R code) for assessing the impacts of these alternatives on salmon populations, including indicators of short-term risk (e.g. 24-year extinction risk) and benchmarks for evaluating longer-term abundance impacts consistent with or improvements on prior Columbia Basin assessments.

4) Use the resulting population dynamics models/estimates to simulate forward in time under several alternative scenarios to assess their impact on populations. These scenarios will be developed in coordination with NWFSC staff will be iterative in nature.

Deliverables Vendor shall provide code and documentation to run the harvest management tool. Vendor shall provide model output for a number of scenarios, as specified by NOAA personnel.

Deliverable Frequency Medium/Format Submit To Preliminary model, code, and output.

Three months after award

R-code, Stan code, and Plots/Tables in mutually agreed upon format via email

COR/TM*

Final model, code, and output

Six months after award

R-code, Stan code, and Plots/Tables in mutually agreed upon format via email

COR/TM

Final Report September 30, 2019 Word COR/TM

* Contracting Officer’s Representative (COR); Task Manager (TM)

Skills Required

a) The vendor shall have experience with developing salmonid life cycles and Bayesian integrated population modeling.

b) The vendor shall be proficient in writing code in R and STAN to conduct the analyses.

Must be proficient in Bayesian Statistics.

c) The vendor must have experience with standard databases.

d) The vendor must have a record of publications on salmon population dynamics.

Evaluation Criteria Factors include:

1. Experience in developing Integrated Population Models of salmon population dynamics using Bayesian Statistics and State Space modeling.

2. Experience in R and STAN to develop population models.

3. References to determine past performance.

SECURITY

• Personnel performing work must wear visible identification at all times when physically within Government facilities or on Government premises.

• Personnel performing work will work primarily off-site.

• Personnel performing work will not require access to NOAA facilities.

• Personnel performing work will not require a PIV or CAC.

• Personnel performing work will not require a NOAA email address.

• Personnel performing work will not require use of DOC owned IT Equipment (Laptop, Desktop Computer).

• Personnel performing work will not require Non-Government IT equipment to interconnect to a DOC network.

• Personnel performing work will not require access to non-public DOC/NOAA data.

DATA PRIVACY

Should work on this agreement require that personnel have access to Privacy information, personnel shall adhere to the Privacy Act, Title 5 of the U.S. Code, Section 552a and applicable agency rules and regulations.

Data created, obtained and collected during the performance of this agreement is the property of NMFS. Data may not be released by any party without written consent from the NMFS POC. Data must be protected from unauthorized disclosure. Personnel must comply with all Federal, DOC, NOAA, and NMFS policies relating to IT and data security.

NON-PERSONAL SERVICE

Personnel performing services under this order will be controlled, directed and supervised at all times by management personnel of the contractor. Personnel will perform independent of and without the supervision of any Government official. Actions of contractor employees may not be interpreted or implemented in any manner that results in any employee creating or modifying Federal policy, obligating the appropriated funds of the U.S. Government, overseeing the work of Federal employees, providing direct personal services to any Federal employee or otherwise violating the prohibitions set forth in Parts 7.5 and 37.1 of the Federal Acquisition Regulations.

The NMFS will perform the inspection and acceptance of the completed work.