JOFOC Noncommercial NW-WX9000-21-0096 (1)_Redacted.pdf

Version 3.0

JUSTIFICATION FOR OTHER THAN FULL AND OPEN COMPETITION (JOFOC) TEMPLATE

SPACE WEATHER MODELING FRAMEWORK

Identification Number: NW-WX9000-21-0096

1. Identification of the agency and contracting activity (FAR 6.303-2(b)(1)).

The NOAA Acquisition and Grants Office (AGO) Western Acquisition Division located in Seattle, WA, proposes to enter into a contract on the basis of other than full and open competition in support of the

National Weather Service (NWS), Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC).

2. The nature and/or description of the action being approved (FAR 6.303-2(b)(2)).

This is a follow-on to an existing contract. The previous contract’s procurement instrument identifier is

1305M320PNWWX0593. SWPC is seeking to establish a firm-fixed-price contract (FFP) with the

University of Michigan (UM) Center for Space Environment Modeling (CSEM) to provide technical expertise and support for the current operations and future transition of improvements of the geospace portion of UM Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model from research to operations at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). These models will run on supercomputers at the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Central Operations (NCO).

3. A description of the supplies or services required to meet the agency’s needs (including the estimated value) (FAR 6.303-2(b)(3)).

This contract provides expert technical services from UM to help the NOAA SWPC with the current operations and transition of future improvements to the geospace portion of the UM SWMF model into operations. These services are critical to the successful model implementation. The model itself is being provided at no cost to NOAA.

The period of performance is from 30 September 2021 to 29 September 2024, which consists of a one year base period and two, one-year option periods.

The estimated value of the total award is approximately $638,778.00.

The scope of this work is broad because it involves experts with a broad range of expertise. It involves both scientists and software engineers who understand the basic science of Earth’s magnetosphere, its various regions and how it is driven by solar wind conditions on one end and controlled by ionospheric conditions on the other. Codes that represent these regions of space, and the interactions and processes that take place in these regions, are extremely difficult to develop, enormous (greater than 150,000 lines of code) and utilize extremely complex mathematical methods to express and solve the equations used in the codes.

4. An identification of the statutory authority permitting other than full and open competition (FAR

6.303-2(b)(4)).

The statutory authority permitting other than full and open competition is 41 U.S.C. 3304(a)(1) as implemented by the Federal Acquisition Regulation (FAR) Subpart 6.302-1 entitled, Only One Responsible

Source and No Other Supplies or Services Will Satisfy Agency Requirements.

5. A statement demonstrating the unique qualifications of the proposed contractor or the nature of the action requiring the use of the authority (FAR 6.303-2(b)(5)).

SWPC is charged with the responsibility of providing electric power utility providers with predictions of regional (local) geomagnetic disturbances that can cause widespread voltage control problems, protective system problems, transformer damage, or even complete collapse of the electric power grid, or blackouts. (See e.g. NOAA’s Space Weather Scales at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation). To determine which model(s) provide the guidance needed for improved forecasts of regional ground-based magnetic field disturbances, a scientific evaluation of three magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) physics-based models and two empirical models, available at NASA’s

Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), was conducted by the CCMC in an independent assessment. Two different, but related measures of geomagnetic activity that can affect power grid operations were examined: 1) Regional dB/dt: the rapid, 1-minute time rate of change of the Earth’s magnetic field at selected regions or locations, and 2) Regional K index: an index of the general level of geomagnetic activity.

From the results of the NASA evaluation, and information learned throughout the evaluation process, SWPC determined that, at this time, only one of the models evaluated is able to deliver the results necessary for our needs. That model is the University of Michigan’s Space Weather Modeling

Framework (SWMF). Full copies of the reports and scientific analysis are included as attachments, and all stakeholders, including the owners of the five models have reviewed the results of the evaluation.

The key results that led to the conclusion that the SWMF model is the only one available to suit

NOAA’s needs includes:

Out of all five publicly available models scientifically analyzed, the UM MHD model had the highest probability of detection for most of the dB/dt magnetic disturbance thresholds, and it demonstrated the greatest overall skill in predicting a regional magnetic index.

Two additional MHD models were examined. One model, because of its large values for the probability of false detection and over prediction for Regional K, is not suited for serving power grid customers.

The other MHD model tends to under predict. Again, this is not suited for serving power grid customers.

For dB/dt disturbances, averaged over all events, the physics-based MHD models are ranked higher than the empirical models for most events and thresholds, and for both empirical models, the probability of detection is always lower than 50% which makes these models unsuitable for serving power grid customers.

Currently, version 2.0 of the University of Michigan model has been transitioned to NCO and is in operations at NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center.

5. A description of efforts made to ensure that offers are solicited from as many potential sources as is practicable, including whether a notice was or will be publicized as required by FAR 5.2 and, if not, which exception under FAR 5.202 applies (FAR 6.303-2(b)(6)).

A synopsis was posted on February 25, 2021 in accordance with FAR Subpart 5.2 to notify the public of the proposed action. This approved justification will be posted within 14 days after award in accordance with FAR 6.305 (a).

6. Determination by the contracting officer that the anticipated cost to the Government will be fair and reasonable (FAR 6.303-2(b)(7)).

The Contracting Officer will require a price breakdown of the FFP to examine any proposed hourly rates to determine fair and reasonableness. Comparisons may be made to same or similar services on NOAA

Link contract holder average rates or GSA Calc.

7. A description of the market research conducted (see FAR Part 10) and the results or a statement of the reason market research was not conducted (FAR 6.303-2(b)(8)).

Market research was conducted to determine which scientific model would best support SWPC customers, including the US power grids, consisting of a multi-year scientific study of five geospace models available at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center. The models were compared by NASA for their capabilities to predict the geomagnetic environment important to SWPC customers.

8. Any other facts supporting the use of other than full and open competition (FAR 6.303-2(b)(9)).

All supporting facts have been documented.

9. A listing of any sources that expressed a written interest in the acquisition (FAR 6.303-2(b)(10)).

No sources indicated an interest as a result of the synopsis posted to Contract Opportunities on

February 25, 2021.

10. A statement of any actions the agency may take to remove or overcome any barriers to competition, if subsequent acquisitions are anticipated (FAR 6.303-2(b)(11)).

In the future, NOAA can take several actions to overcome barriers to competition. NOAA will continue to encourage our partner agencies in the National Space Weather Program (NSWP), including the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Aeronautics and Space

Administration (NASA), to continue to support model developers on new and improved model research and development. In addition, NOAA can provide opportunities at scientific meetings for modelers to demonstrate how their models may surpass or improve on current NOAA operational models.

11. CERTIFICATION

The JOFOC has been prepared and certified by:

Technical/Requirements Personnel:

I certify the requirement meets the Government’s minimum need and that the facts, representations, and data included in this justification are complete and accurate.