IARPA-RFI-22-04 C (2).pdf

UNCLASSIFIED

Orbital Debris Detection and Tracking

Request for Information: Orbital Debris Detection and Tracking

RFI Number: IARPA-RFI-22-04

Agency: Office of the Director of National Intelligence

Office: Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity

IARPA-RFI-22-04

Synopsis:

Request for Information (RFI): Orbital Debris Detection and Tracking

The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) seeks information regarding innovative approaches to detect and track currently undetectable orbital space debris.

Orbital debris collisions are a significant risk to Earth-orbiting spacecraft. With an average impact velocity of 10 km/s (22,500 MPH) in low Earth orbit (LEO), even the smallest pieces of debris can cause serious damage, as demonstrated by the 3.8 mm diameter pit produced by the impact of a 0.2 mm paint chip on STS-7.1 Currently, there are over 500,000 pieces of debris between 1 and 10 cm in diameter, and over 100 million particles smaller than 1 cm orbiting the Earth.2 The debris population is dynamic due to the influence of drag, driving the need for persistent monitoring.3 However, sub-centimeter debris cannot be detected with ground-based methods,4 and on-orbit detectors (e.g., the Long Duration

Exposure Facility5) can only sample the population at the detector altitude, by colliding with the debris.6 Since the retirement of the Space Shuttle program in 2011, the USG no longer has a dedicated, calibrated on-orbit orbital debris detection sensor.7

IARPA seeks to understand the interaction of orbital debris with the surrounding space environment, and whether the resulting phenomena can be used for the detection, mapping, and tracking of currently nontrackable orbital space debris. The detection of nontrackable orbital debris would support the safe operation of our valuable government and commercial space assets.

Background & Scope:

While traditional ground-based sensor detection techniques continue to improve, the detection sensitivity rapidly decreases with increasing altitude and is limited to observing high latitudes.8 The traditional modes of ground sensors in the U.S. Space Surveillance

Network (SSN) can detect 10 cm objects at 2,000 km altitude in LEO and 1 m objects at

35,786 km altitude in GEO.8 Unfortunately, the collection modes for ground-based sensors are not able to track small objects due to the relatively high angular velocity and must remain in staring mode to count the number of objects passing through the field of view.

The largest source of uncertainty exists in the ability to interpret the signal strength in order to determine the size or mass of the object passing through the field of view.8 Additionally, debris from objects in a Molniya-type orbit cannot be detected since the U.S. ground-based sensor systems are in the Northern Hemisphere.8

Recent work has demonstrated that orbital debris becomes charged due to its interaction with the background plasma, causing perturbations in the ion density.9 It is theorized that the debris will create solitary waves, or solitons, in the surrounding ion density,10 and this phenomena has been simulated computationally and demonstrated in laboratory environments.10,11 Ion density irregularities are frequently studied using ionosphere measurement systems, to include ground-, air-, & space-based radar,12 ionosondes,13

Langmuir probes,14 and HF communication sensors.15 As a result, and since solitons are regularly detected in other naturally occurring plasma environments,16 there is reason to believe that debris-induced solitons offer opportunities for detection and tracking.

Current ground-based capabilities will not meet the challenge of tracking debris less than

10 cm in size. Hereby, IARPA invites white papers describing promising approaches for the detection and tracking of orbital debris in the size range from 0.1 cm to 10 cm, traveling in any orbital plane around planet Earth. For IARPA to evaluate the promise of potential new approaches, it is necessary to consider the following:

a. existing or newly proposed technology for ground, air, and/or space sensors;

b. sensor types including but not limited to optical sensors, radar, lidar, ionosondes, Langmuir probes, solar sails, GNSS, and RF sensors;

c. pertinent physical phenomena including but not limited to plasma density solitary waves (solitons), electrostatic discharge, orbital decay, magnetic field perturbations, and/or radio wave emissions produced as the orbital debris interacts with the surrounding plasma environment;

d. specialized sensor collection modes including but not limited to interferometry, polarimetry, occultation, scintillation, compressed sensing, and/or coincident collection with ground/air/space sensors;

e. probabilistic detection techniques for low signal to noise objects; and

f. capabilities that improve the resolution and cadence of data assimilation systems, providing for a more accurate characterization of ionospheric plasma at a desired observation time

Responses can address any one or multiple of these considerations.

An IARPA virtual invitation-only workshop is planned for Spring of 2022 with the purpose of reviewing and discussing current and future research relevant to this RFI. Information discussed at this workshop may assist in the formulation of possible future areas of USG research with the objective of orbital debris detection. Capacity for the workshop is limited, and attendance will be by invitation only. White papers should also provide a rough estimate of achievable performance and indicate specific issues to be addressed, such as those listed earlier.

Preparation Instructions to Respondents:

IARPA requests that respondents submit ideas related to this topic for use by the

Government in formulating a potential program. IARPA requests that submittals briefly and clearly describe the potential approach or concept, outline critical technical issues/obstacles, describe how the approach may address those issues/obstacles, and comment on the expected performance and robustness of the proposed approach. If appropriate, respondents may also choose to provide a non-proprietary rough order of magnitude (ROM) estimate regarding what such approaches might require in terms of funding and other resources for one or more years. This announcement contains all of the information required to submit a response. No additional forms, kits, or other materials are needed.

IARPA welcomes responses from all capable and qualified sources from within and outside of the U.S.

Because IARPA is interested in an integrated approach, responses from teams with complementary areas of expertise are encouraged.

Responses must meet the following formatting requirements:

a one-page cover sheet that identifies the title, organization(s), respondent's technical and administrative points of contact - including names, addresses, phone and fax numbers, and email addresses of all co-authors, and clearly indicating its association with RFI-22-04;

a substantive, focused, one-half page executive summary;

a description (limited to 5 pages in minimum 12-point Times New Roman font, appropriate for single-sided, single-spaced 8.5 by 11-inch paper, with 1-inch margins) of the technical challenges and suggested approach(es);

a list of citations (any significant claims or reports of success must be accompanied by citations); and a single quad-chart depicting the (a) approach, (b) supportive illustrations, (c) key ideas, and (d) potential impact.

Submission Instructions to Respondents:

Responses to this RFI are due no later than 5:00 p.m., Eastern Time, 11 March 2022. All submissions must be electronically submitted to dni-iarpa-rfi-22-04@iarpa.gov as a PDF document. Inquiries to this RFI must be submitted to dni-iarpa-rfi-22-04@iarpa.gov no later than 5:00 p.m., Eastern Time, 4 March 2022. Do not send questions with proprietary content. No telephone inquiries will be accepted.

Disclaimers and Important Notes:

This is an RFI issued solely for information and planning purposes and does not constitute a solicitation. Respondents are advised that IARPA is under no obligation to acknowledge receipt or provide feedback to respondents with respect to any information submitted under this RFI. Responses to this notice are not offers and cannot be accepted by the Government to form a binding contract. Respondents are solely responsible for all expenses associated with responding to this RFI. IARPA will not provide reimbursement for costs incurred in responding to this RFI. It is the respondent's responsibility to ensure that the submitted material has been approved for public release by the information owner. The Government does not intend to award a contract on the basis of this RFI or to otherwise pay for the information solicited, nor is the Government obligated to issue a solicitation based on responses received. No proprietary and no classified concepts or information shall be included in the submittal. However, should a respondent wish to submit classified concepts or information, prior coordination must be made with IARPA Security. Email the

Primary Point of Contact with a request for coordination with IARPA Security. Input on technical aspects of the responses may be solicited by IARPA from non-Government consultants/experts who are bound by appropriate non-disclosure requirements.

Contracting Office Address:

Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Intelligence Advanced Research Projects

Activity Washington, District of Columbia 20511, United States

Primary Point of Contact:

Dr. Alexis Truitt, Program Manager

Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity

1 EL Christiansen, JL Hyde, and RP Bernhard. Space shuttle debris and meteoroid impacts. Advances in

Space Research, 34(5):1097-1103, 2004.

2 NASA. NASA Technology Roadmaps: TA 5: Communications, Navigation and Orbital Debris

Tracking and Characterization Systems, chapter 5.7 Orbital Debris Tracking and Characterization.

NASA, 2015.

3 Donald J. Kessler and Burton G. Cour-Palais. Collision frequency of artificial satellites: The creation of a debris belt. Journal of Geophysical Research, 83(A6):2637, 1978.

4 Limiting Future Collision Risk to Spacecraft. National Academies Press, Nov 2011.

5 D.E. Brinza (1993) An Overview of the Long Duration Exposure Facility: Case Studies for the Effects of the Space Environment on Spacecraft Systems. NATO ASI Series (Series E: Applied Sciences), vol

245.

6 Michael A. Tsao, Hau T. Ngo, Robert D. Corsaro, and Christopher R. Anderson. An in-situ measurement system for characterizing orbital debris. IEEE Transactions on Instrumentation and

Measurement, 65(12):2758-2772, Dec 2016.

7 M Matney. Nasa orbital debris program office quarterly news, Aug 2017.

References

8 National Research Council. 2011. Limiting Future Collision Risk to Spacecraft: An Assessment of

NASA's Meteoroid and Orbital Debris Programs. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

9 Abhijit Sen, Sanat Tiwari, Sanjay Mishra, and Predhiman Kaw. Nonlinear wave excitations by orbiting charged space debris objects. Advances in Space Research, 56(3):429-435, Aug 2015.

10 Sanat Kumar Tiwari and Abhijit Sen. Wakes and precursor soliton excitations by a moving charged object in a plasma. Physics of Plasmas, 23(2):22301, Feb 2016.

11 Alexis S Truitt and Christine M Hartzell. Simulating plasma solitons from orbital debris using the forced Korteweg-de Vries equation. Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, 57(5), 876–897, 2020.

12 N. A. Zabotin and J. W. Wright. Ionospheric irregularity diagnostics from the phase structure functions of MF/HF radio echoes. Radio Science, 36(4):757-771, Jul 2001.

13 M.T. Rietveld, J.W. Wright, N. Zabotin, and M.L.V. Pitteway. The Tromsø dynasonde. Polar Science, 2(1):55-71, Mar 2008.

14 H. S. S. Sinha. Rocket-borne Langmuir probe for plasma density irregularities, page 77-90. Terrapub, 2013.

15 Biagio Forte, Chris Coleman, Susan Skone, Ingemar Haggstrom, Cathryn Mitchell, Federico Da Dalt, Tommaso Panicciari, Joe Kinrade, and Gary Bust. Identification of scintillation signatures on GPS signals originating from plasma structures detected with EISCAT incoherent scatter radar along the same line of sight. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, 122(1):916-931, Jan 2017.

16 R. Trines, R. Bingham, M. W. Dunlop, A. Vaivads, J. A. Davies, J. T. Mendonca, L. O. Silva, and P.

K. Shukla. Spontaneous generation of self-organized solitary wave structures at earth’s magnetopause.

Physical Review Letters, 99(20), Nov 2007.