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General The purpose of this document is to provide potential mail contractors with information about the impact of disaster(s) size on outbound mail operations. This information is based on historical data extracted from several years. However, it is important to note that the number of disasters and the intensity of disaster activity varies from year to year.
The offeror shall address all three (3) assumptions within this scenario in their proposal to indicate technical approach and understanding of work to be performed.
In 2008 there were 35 declared disasters that impacted the outbound mail production. The table below categorizes the size of the disasters and the frequency of that size in 2008.
| Estimated Number of Registrations in a Disaster |
| Disaster Size Classification |
| Percentage per year |
(Based on 2008 historical data.)
Number of Disasters
| 5k or less |
| Very small |
| 57% |
| 20 |
| 100k or greater |
| Very large |
| 6% |
| 2 |
Total
Background
After a disaster declaration, disaster victims register for assistance either via the web or by phone. Once the applicant registers, FEMA personnel generate a variety of letters to each applicant and load these letters into the NEMIS print queue, typically during the first week after the disaster. The mail contractor prints and mails the letters to the applicants in accordance with the guidelines of the Statement of Work (SOW).
The significant impact of the disaster occurs for outbound mail within the first 90 days after disaster declaration. It is important to note however, that correspondence from FEMA, continues for months and in some disasters years after the declaration.
Although very large disasters are a relatively low percentage (6 %), multiple disasters can easily reach a volume of greater than 100,000, and may occur in a relatively short period of time. In 2008 during the period August 23, 2008 through September 13, 2008 four disasters were declared. The total impact of these four disasters was 1,248,366 registrations. These multiple disaster occurrences have a significant impact on outgoing mail volume.
Most typically hurricane season is the most active disaster period of the year, but earthquakes, wildfires and other natural and manmade disasters can occur at any time during the year.
Based on trend analysis of several years’ activity, this document provides examples of the disaster impact outbound mail processes.
Outbound Mail
There are two general types of letters sent to applicants. The first letter is referred to as the “9069” letter, and is the application letter. Subsequently FEMA mails a variety of other letters to the disaster applicants and these are generally referred to as “Super” letters. Both are discussed below.
9069 letter FEMA provides each applicant that registers an application package. This package consists of a letter referred to as the 9069 and an applicant guide “Help After a Disaster.”
FEMA personnel generate the 9069 letter usually within a week of the disaster declaration. The mail contractor prints the letter, which is typically 8-10 pages (see note) and mails with the “Help After a Disaster” applicant guide to each person that registered for assistance.
Note:
Some disasters impact communities with large Spanish speaking populations. If the state affected so designates, FEMA provides both English and Spanish documentation to each applicant. Bilingual letters contain additional pages. Additionally, the mail contractor, upon direction from FEMA, shall mail both English and Spanish applicant guides with the 9069 letters.
It is important to recognize that the majority of registrations from disaster victims arrive during a period of approximately 8 weeks from the date of disaster declaration. The table below reflects the average percentage of registrations by week after a disaster declaration.
| Week of the Disaster |
| Percent of Applications Forecasted |
The table below illustrates the impact of a disaster with 15,000 registrations (small disaster) on 9069 outbound letters by week. The ratio of registrations to the number of 9069 letters is one to one. The ratio of registrations/letters to the number of images (pages) that the contractor must print/mail is 1:8 or 10.
| Week of the Disaster |
| Percent of Applications Forecasted |
| Number of Registrations Expected |
| Number of 9069 letters |
| Letter Images by week |
(estimate 8-10 pages per letter)
| 1st week |
| 30% |
| 4,500 |
| 4,500 |
| 45,000 |
| 2nd week |
| 21% |
| 3,150 |
| 3,150 |
| 31,500 |
| 3rd week |
| 16% |
| 2,400 |
| 2,400 |
| 24,000 |
| 4th week |
| 11% |
| 1,650 |
| 1,650 |
| 16,500 |
| 5th-8th week |
| 22% |
| 3,300 |
| 3,300 |
| 33,000 |
| Total |
| 100% |
| 15,000 |
| 15,000 |
| 150,000 |
Disaster Size and the Impact on Outbound Mail Operations
This table is representative of a large disaster of 50,000 registrations.
| Week of the Disaster |
| Percent of Applications Forecasted |
| Number of Registrations Expected |
| Number of 9069 letters |
| Letter Images by week |
(estimate 8-10 pages per letter)
| 1st week |
| 30% |
| 15,000 |
| 15,000 |
| 150,000 |
| 2nd week |
| 21% |
| 10,500 |
| 10,500 |
| 105,000 |
| 3rd week |
| 16% |
| 8,000 |
| 8,000 |
| 80,000 |
| 4th week |
| 11% |
| 5,500 |
| 5,500 |
| 55,000 |
| 5th-8th week |
| 22% |
| 11,000 |
| 11,000 |
| 110,000 |
| Total |
| 100% |
| 50,000 |
| 50,000 |
| 500,000 |
The table below illustrates the impact of a single or multiple disasters with one million registrations on 9069 outbound letters by week. The ratio of registrations to the number of 9069 letters is still one to one. The ratio of registrations/letters to the number of images (pages) that the contractor must print/mail is still 1:8 or 10 but the volume is significant.
| Week of the Disaster |
| Percent of Applications Forecasted |
| Number of Registrations Expected |
| Number of 9069 letters |
| Letter Images by week |
(estimate 8-10 pages per letter)
| 1st week |
| 30% |
| 300,000 |
| 300,000 |
| 3,000,000 |
| 2nd week |
| 21% |
| 210,000 |
| 210,000 |
| 2,100,000 |
| 3rd week |
| 16% |
| 160,000 |
| 160,000 |
| 1,600,000 |
| 4th week |
| 11% |
| 110,000 |
| 110,000 |
| 1,100,000 |
| 5th-8th week |
| 22% |
| 220,000 |
| 220,000 |
| 2,200,000 |
| Total |
| 100% |
| 1,000,000 |
| 1,000,000 |
| 10,000,000 |
Super Letters Super letter is a general term that applies to all letters other than the initial 9069 letters sent to the applicant. The number of letters to any one applicant can vary depending on the type of disaster and the specific applicant’s circumstances. However, statistical data indicates that typically FEMA generates three super letters for every one 9069 letter generated. These super letters vary in length from 5 to 8 pages. Super letters are typically generated beginning the fourth through the eleventh week after the disaster.
The table below assumes a disaster of 15,000 registrations and illustrates the timing and volume of both the 9069 and the Super letters by week subsequent to the declaration. Beginning in the 4th week, both 9069s and super letters require printing/mailing.
| Week of the Disaster |
| Percent of Applications Forecasted |
| Number of Registrations Expected |
| 9069 Letters |
| 9069 Letter Images by week |
(estimate 8-10 pages per letter)
| Super Letters |
| Super Letter images by week (Estimate 5-8 pages per letter) |
| Total images to print/mail by week |
| 1st week |
| 30% |
| 4,500 |
| 4,500 |
| 45,000 |
45,000
| 2nd week |
| 21% |
| 3,150 |
| 3,150 |
| 31,500 |
31,500
| 3rd week |
| 16% |
| 2,400 |
| 2,400 |
| 24,000 |
24,000
| 4th week |
| 11% |
| 1,650 |
| 1,650 |
| 16,500 |
| 13,500 |
| 67,500 |
| 84,000 |
| 5th-8th week |
| 22% |
| 3,300 |
| 3,300 |
| 33,000 |
| 9,450 |
| 47,250 |
| 80,250 |
9th
10th
11th
Total
| 15,000 |
| 15,000 |
| 150,000 |
| 45,000 |
| 225,000 |
| 375,000 |
This table indicates values for a large disaster of 50,000.
| Week of the Disaster |
| Percent of Applications Forecasted |
| Number of Registrations Expected |
| 9069 Letters |
| 9069 Letter Images by week |
(estimate 8-10 pages per letter)
| Super Letters |
| Super Letter images by week (Estimate 5-8 pages per letter) |
| Total images to print/mail by week |
| 1st week |
| 30% |
| 15,000 |
| 15,000 |
| 150,000 |
150,000
| 2nd week |
| 21% |
| 10,500 |
| 10,500 |
| 105,000 |
105,000
| 3rd week |
| 16% |
| 8,000 |
| 8,000 |
| 80,000 |
80,000
| 4th week |
| 11% |
| 5,500 |
| 5,500 |
| 55,000 |
| 45,000 |
| 225,000 |
| 280,000 |
| 5th-8th week |
| 22% |
| 11,000 |
| 11,000 |
| 110,000 |
| 31,500 |
| 157,500 |
| 267,500 |
9th
10th
11th
Total
| 50,000 |
| 50,000 |
| 500,000 |
| 150,000 |
| 750,000 |
| 1,250,000 |
Below is a reflection of the impact of 1 million registrations on the outbound mail. As mentioned earlier, this could be a single disaster or multiple disasters that occur in a short time frame.
| Week of the Disaster |
| Percent of Applications Forecasted |
| Number of Registrations Expected |
| 9069 Letters |
| 9069 Letter Images by week |
(estimate 8-10 pages per letter)
| Super Letters |
| Super Letter images by week (Estimate 5-8 pages per letter) |
| Total images to print/mail by week |
| 1st week |
| 30% |
| 300,000 |
| 300,000 |
| 3,000,000 |
3,000,000
| 2nd week |
| 21% |
| 210,000 |
| 210,000 |
| 2,100,000 |
2,100,000
| 3rd week |
| 16% |
| 160,000 |
| 160,000 |
| 1,600,000 |
1,600,000
| 4th week |
| 11% |
| 110,000 |
| 110,000 |
| 1,100,000 |
| 900,000 |
| 4,500,000 |
| 5,600,000 |
| 5th-8th week |
| 22% |
| 220,000 |
| 220,000 |
| 2,200,000 |
| 630,000 |
| 3,150,000 |
| 5,350,000 |
9th
| 480,000 |
| 2,400,000 |
| 2,400,000 |
10th
| 330,000 |
| 1,650,000 |
| 1,650,000 |
11th
| 660,000 |
| 3,300,000 |
| 3,300,000 |
Total
| 1,000,000 |
| 1,000,000 |
| 10,000,000 |
| 3,000,000 |
| 15,000,000 |
| 25,000,000 |
THERE IS NO PAGE LIMIT FOR THE SCENARIOS. THIS IS A SEPARATE EFFORT FROM THE 100 PAGE TECHNICAL PROPOSAL.
