Appendix_D_-_Extrapolation_Template_6-2015.xls

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Medical Claims Review of Cost-Based Medicare Managed Care Organizations (MCO)
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HHSM-500-2015-RFP-0113
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Appendix D - Extrapolation Template 6-2015

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Universe Statistics

Plan:
Plan Year:
UNIVERSE STATISTICS
Instructions:
Complete the blue and green colored items in the following table for the population of claims/services to be sampled.
Figures shown in the template are for illustration only. Contractors will need to customize the following items to their particular Medicare cost plan universe:
Number of strata (column 1) - Each cost report cost center could be a stratum, and if so then the stratum limits (column 2) would be the cost center name and not min/max dollar values.
Also, if necessary certain cost centers could be further segregated into two or more strata by dollar values.
Stratum min/max limits (column 2) - If stratum are determined by dollar value, customize the minimum and maximum stratum limits to the appropriate amounts for the particular universe.
Green items (columns 4, 5, 6) should be input into RAT-STATS.
RAT-STATS will calculate the optimal number of items to sample per stratum (enter in column 7). However, this statistically valid sample amount may not attain the total sample size set by CMS.
In the fictional example below, only 215 items were included in the output from RAT-STATS, but the CMS sample size is 350.
The minimum stratum sample size (column 8) must be considered to ensure enough coverage for each stratum. CMS sampling guidance states that this minimum is 30 items per stratum.
The formula in column 9 determines whether the RAT-STATS output sample size met or exceeded the minimum stratum sample size. If 30 items was not met, the minimum of 30 is inserted.
Note: If the total stratum universe is less than 30 items, the Contractor will need to change the formulas in columns 8-10 of that stratum to reflect that all items will be tested
(column 11 sample items = column 6 items in universe) and the suggested minimum of 30 items will not be met.
The formula in column 10 allocates the remaining required samples to the stratum based on the weighted value of the universe (column 3) so that the CMS minimum total sample size is met.
The allocation may need to be adjusted due to rounding. In the example, the total number of samples in column 11 is 351, not 350. The column 10 allocation would need to be tweaked.
The Contractor can also choose a different, rational method to allocate the remaining samples needed to get to the CMS total sample size.
1234567891011
RAT-STATS Inputs for Variable SVSSVS Determination for Sample Selection
StratumStratum LimitsTotal Value of UniverseStandard DeviationMeanTotal # of Items in UniverseRAT-STATS SVS OutputMinimum Stratum SizeRatio AllocationAllocated Additional SamplesTotal # of Items in Sample
1$0.00to$249.99$41,038,006.25enterenter181,34572307235107
2$250.00to$999.99$38,655,882.65enterenter19,8275730573390
3$1,000.00to$3,499.99$24,667,061.46enterenter4,8944230422163
4$3,500.00to$14,999.99$20,224,637.94enterenter1,2812730301747
5$15,000.00& up$16,126,998.43enterenter2861730301444
Total$140,712,586.73207,633215150231120351
Minimum CMS Total Sample350
NOTE:According to Chapter 8, Section 4.2 of the Medicare Program Integrity Manual,
"If a particular probability sample design is properly executed, i.e., defining the universe, the frame, the sampling units, using proper randomization, accurately measuring the
variables of interest, and using the correct formulas for estimation, then assertions that the sample and its resulting estimates are “not statistically valid” cannot legitimately
be made. In other words, a probability sample and its results are always “valid.” Because of differences in the choice of a design, the level of available resources, and the
method of estimation, however, some procedures lead to higher precision (smaller confidence intervals) than other methods."

Audit Results

Plan:
Plan Year:
REVIEW RESULTS
Instructions:
Complete the colored items in the following table for the population of claims/services to be sampled.
Green items will be input into RAT-STATS
Note: Figures shown in the template are for illustration only.
Claim IdentifiersMRC Findings
Sample #Stratum #Claim #Other IdentifierExamined ValueAudited ValueDifference Value
(e.g., line(e.g., actual(e.g., correcterror
number)paid amount)paid amount)amount
1155555551$58.26$58.26$0.00
2155555561$31.07$31.07$0.00
3155555571$22.15$0.00$22.15
4155555581$88.74$88.74$0.00
5155555591$7.52$7.52$0.00
6155555601$28.49$28.49$0.00
7155555611$56.00$56.00$0.00
8155555621$220.51$220.51$0.00
9155555631$48.70$48.70$0.00
10155555641$109.70$109.70$0.00
11155555651$0.00$0.00$0.00
12155555661$28.08$28.08$0.00
13155555671$44.37$44.37$0.00
14155555681$53.67$53.67$0.00
15155555691$113.90$113.90$0.00
16155555701$33.26$33.26$0.00
17155555711$111.90$111.90$0.00
18155555721$17.80$17.80$0.00
19155555731$0.00$0.00$0.00
20155555741$201.38$150.00$51.38
21155555751$17.75$17.75$0.00
22155555761$29.94$29.94$0.00
23155555771$89.92$89.92$0.00
24155555781$186.53$186.53$0.00
25155555791$58.26$58.26$0.00
26155555801$38.95$38.95$0.00
27155555811$0.00$0.00$0.00
28155555821$36.50$36.50$0.00
29155555831$67.15$67.15$0.00
30155555841$40.28$40.28$0.00
31155555851$16.50$16.50$0.00
32155555861$63.51$63.51$0.00
33155555871$49.64$49.64$0.00
34155555881$144.00$144.00$0.00
35155555891$28.55$28.55$0.00
36155555901$16.02$16.02$0.00
37155555911$49.51$49.51$0.00
38155555921$0.00$0.00$0.00
39155555931$30.00$30.00$0.00
40155555941$26.27$26.27$0.00
41155555951$50.74$50.74$0.00
42155555961$100.76$100.76$0.00
43155555971$31.11$31.11$0.00
44155555981$1.66$1.66$0.00
45155555991$26.78$26.78$0.00
461$0.00
471$0.00
481$0.00
491$0.00
501$0.00
511$0.00
521$0.00
531$0.00
541$0.00
551$0.00
561$0.00
571$0.00
581$0.00
591$0.00
601$0.00
611$0.00
621$0.00
631$0.00
641$0.00
651$0.00
661$0.00
671$0.00
681$0.00
691$0.00
701$0.00
711$0.00
721$0.00
731$0.00
741$0.00
751$0.00
761$0.00
771$0.00
781$0.00
791$0.00
801$0.00
811$0.00
821$0.00
831$0.00
841$0.00
851$0.00
861$0.00
871$0.00
881$0.00
891$0.00
901$0.00
911$0.00
921$0.00
931$0.00
941$0.00
951$0.00
961$0.00
971$0.00
981$0.00
991$0.00
1001$0.00
1011$0.00
1021$0.00
1031$0.00
1041$0.00
1051$0.00
1061$0.00
1071$0.00
108255556311$380.00$380.00$0.00
109255556321$349.00$349.00$0.00
110255556331$288.48$288.48$0.00
111255556341$292.00$292.00$0.00
112255556351$873.40$600.00$273.40
113255556361$344.91$344.91$0.00
114255556371$266.25$266.25$0.00
115255556381$633.90$633.90$0.00
116255556391$256.00$256.00$0.00
117255556401$360.00$360.00$0.00
118255556411$375.00$375.00$0.00
119255556421$420.42$420.42$0.00
120255556431$707.25$707.25$0.00
121255556441$480.06$480.06$0.00
122255556451$349.12$349.12$0.00
123255556461$285.45$285.45$0.00
124255556471$700.00$700.00$0.00
125255556481$317.68$317.68$0.00
126255556491$310.10$310.10$0.00
127255556501$423.08$423.08$0.00
128255556511$827.75$827.75$0.00
129255556521$424.80$424.80$0.00
130255556531$274.25$274.25$0.00
131255556541$316.80$316.80$0.00
132255556551$551.93$551.93$0.00
133255556561$445.00$445.00$0.00
134255556571$420.30$420.30$0.00
135255556581$260.31$260.31$0.00
136255556591$561.47$561.47$0.00
137255556601$392.00$392.00$0.00
1382$0.00
1392$0.00
1402$0.00
1412$0.00
1422$0.00
1432$0.00
1442$0.00
1452$0.00
1462$0.00
1472$0.00
1482$0.00
1492$0.00
1502$0.00
1512$0.00
1522$0.00
1532$0.00
1542$0.00
1552$0.00
1562$0.00
1572$0.00
1582$0.00
1592$0.00
1602$0.00
1612$0.00
1622$0.00
1632$0.00
1642$0.00
1652$0.00
1662$0.00
1672$0.00
1682$0.00
1692$0.00
1702$0.00
1712$0.00
1722$0.00
1732$0.00
1742$0.00
1752$0.00
1762$0.00
1772$0.00
1782$0.00
1792$0.00
1802$0.00
1812$0.00
1822$0.00
1832$0.00
1842$0.00
1852$0.00
1862$0.00
1872$0.00
1882$0.00
1892$0.00
1902$0.00
1912$0.00
1922$0.00
1932$0.00
1942$0.00
1952$0.00
1962$0.00
1972$0.00
19833489061$2,249.80$2,249.80$0.00
19933479567$1,665.54$1,665.54$0.00
20033470073$3,114.49$3,114.49$0.00
20133460579$2,717.87$2,717.87$0.00
20233451085$2,130.75$2,130.75$0.00
20333441591$2,484.80$2,484.80$0.00
20433432097$1,893.30$1,893.30$0.00
20533422603$1,187.55$1,187.55$0.00
20633413109$1,605.08$1,605.08$0.00
20733403615$1,408.95$1,408.95$0.00
20833394121$1,400.00$1,400.00$0.00
20933384627$1,435.00$1,435.00$0.00
21033375133$1,080.00$1,080.00$0.00
21133365639$2,756.25$2,756.25$0.00
21233356145$1,498.04$1,498.04$0.00
21333346651$1,075.00$1,075.00$0.00
21433337157$3,245.62$3,245.62$0.00
21533327663$1,047.12$1,047.12$0.00
21633318169$2,245.30$2,245.30$0.00
21733308675$3,078.18$3,078.18$0.00
21833299181$2,392.69$2,392.69$0.00
21933289687$1,679.08$1,679.08$0.00
22033280193$1,141.00$1,141.00$0.00
22133270699$2,290.00$2,290.00$0.00
22233261205$1,950.00$1,950.00$0.00
22333251711$1,988.80$1,988.80$0.00
22433242217$1,125.00$1,125.00$0.00
22533232723$1,030.00$1,030.00$0.00
22633223229$1,260.00$1,260.00$0.00
22733213735$2,705.40$2,705.40$0.00
22833204241$2,353.55$1,368.00$985.55
22933194747$1,092.84$1,092.84$0.00
23033185253$2,955.29$2,955.29$0.00
23133175759$1,035.00$1,035.00$0.00
2323$0.00
2333$0.00
2343$0.00
2353$0.00
2363$0.00
2373$0.00
2383$0.00
2393$0.00
2403$0.00
2413$0.00
2423$0.00
2433$0.00
2443$0.00
2453$0.00
2463$0.00
2473$0.00
2483$0.00
2493$0.00
2503$0.00
2513$0.00
2523$0.00
2533$0.00
2543$0.00
2553$0.00
2563$0.00
2573$0.00
2583$0.00
2593$0.00
2603$0.00
2614$0.00
2624$0.00
2634$0.00
2644$0.00
2654$0.00
2664$0.00
2674$0.00
2684$0.00
2694589647$7,151.27$7,140.00$11.27
2704$0.00
2714$0.00
2724$0.00
2734$0.00
2744$0.00
2754$0.00
2764$0.00
2774$0.00
2784$0.00
2794$0.00
2804$0.00
2814$0.00
2824$0.00
2834$0.00
2844$0.00
2854$0.00
2864$0.00
2874$0.00
2884$0.00
2894$0.00
2904$0.00
2914$0.00
2924$0.00
2934$0.00
2944$0.00
2954$0.00
2964$0.00
2974$0.00
2984$0.00
2994$0.00
3004$0.00
3014$0.00
3024$0.00
3034$0.00
3044$0.00
3054$0.00
3064$0.00
3074$0.00
3085$0.00
3095$0.00
3105$0.00
3115$0.00
3125$0.00
3135$0.00
3145$0.00
3155$0.00
3165$0.00
3175$0.00
3185$0.00
3195$0.00
3205$0.00
3215$0.00
3225$0.00
3235$0.00
3245$0.00
3255$0.00
3265$0.00
3275$0.00
3285$0.00
3295$0.00
3305$0.00
3315$0.00
3325$0.00
3335$0.00
3345$0.00
3355$0.00
3365$0.00
3375$0.00
3385$0.00
3395$0.00
3405$0.00
3415$0.00
3425$0.00
3435$0.00
3445$0.00
3455$0.00
3465$0.00
3475$0.00
3485$0.00
3495$0.00
350553261241$16,452.00$16,452.00$0.00

Error Rate Calc

Plan:
Plan Year:
ERROR RATE CALCULATION
Instructions:
Ensure the formulas below are pulling the correct amounts and the results make sense.
If the Total Financial Error Rate is 1% or more, enter the Point Estimate and the 90% Lower Confidence Limit from RAT-STATS.
This will provide the total extrapolated adjustment, but this amount still must be allocated to the strata in order to adjust the cost report.
Adjustments should be made to both the costs and statistics reported on the cost report.
Total Net Error Rate
SampleSampleSampleStratumTotal Value
StratumStratum LimitsSizeErrorValueError Rateof Universe
1$0.00to$249.99107$73.53$2,475.833.0%$41,038,006.25
2$250.00to$999.9990$273.40$12,886.712.1%$38,655,882.65
3$1,000.00to$3,499.9963$985.55$64,317.291.5%$24,667,061.46
4$3,500.00to$14,999.9947$11.27$7,151.270.2%$20,224,637.94
5$15,000.00& up44$0.00$16,452.000.0%$16,126,998.43
TOTAL351$1,343.75$103,283.10$140,712,586.73
Total Financial Error Rate (Weighted)1.7%
Is the error rate material?Yes
If material, calculate extrapolated values using RATSTAT or equivalent software:
Best Estimate (Point Estimate)
Report the larger of:
Sample Error$1,343.75
OR
90% Lower Confidence Limit (two-tailed test) for the Total Error

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