Statement_of_Work.pdf

G15PS00194 02/24/2015

PERFORMANCE-BASED WORK STATEMENT

I. GENERAL INFORMATION

A. Introduction (general description of services).

The U.S. Geological Survey Pacific Island Ecosystem Research Center (USGS PIERC) requests quantitative modeling analyses of the geographic risk of rat spills on the Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands. Contractor will allow periodic review by USGS PIERC, the US Fish Wildlife Service, Alaska Migratory Bird Management (USFWS MBM), and the Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands Landscape Conservation Cooperative (ABSI LCC) and will produce a technical report and a peer-reviewed scientific journal publication detailing the geographic risk of rat spills on the Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands. Contractor will also produce a Geographic Information System (GIS) shape file, consisting of a centroid for each island with a linked database, including the avian resources, the predicted likelihood of a shipwreck, as well as the estimated risk of rat introduction to each island.

B. Background

Introduced rodents, especially rats (Rattus spp.), are known to be particularly destructive to island ecosystems. Globally, rats have been implicated for the extinctions of more island bird species than any other non-indigenous species. The presence of rats is largely incompatible with burrow and ground-nesting birds, particularly seabirds, in the Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands. A quantitative modeling analysis of the geographic risk of rat spills on the Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands is necessary to understand and minimize risk factors associated with rat invasions posed by shipping traffic, and to make the most cost-effective use of conservation funds to proactively protect to these island ecosystems.

C. Definitions/Applicable Documents

The concept of ‘risk’ is defined here as the product of the likelihood of an incident, times the severity of an incident. The likelihood of a shipwreck (based on a database of existing shipwrecks) is defined as the measure of the likelihood of a rat introduction.

The measure of the severity of such an event will be defined by the numbers of ground-nesting seabirds on each of these islands, using data from the Beringian Seabird Colony Catalog (http://www.seabirds.net/).

Threats from rat spills are explicitly identified as a concern for seabirds which are a Priority Natural Resource under the ABSI LCC 2013 Strategic Science Plan (http://tinyurl.com/npc8jk7 ). Two burrow-nesting species identified as Tier I FWS Priority Species, the Tufted Puffin and Fork-tailed Storm Petrel, are likely at greatest risk from rats (Jones et al. 2008). Other ground-nesting Tier I species like the McKay’s

Bunting, with breeding globally restricted to St. Matthew and Hall Islands, and Marbled Murrelet may also be at risk. Additionally, Tier-II Kittlitz’s murrelets which nest on the ground in the Aleutian Islands are considered ‘critically endangered’ by the IUCN (www.iucnredlist.org).

Jones HP, Tershy BR, Zavaleta ES, Croll DA, Keitt BS, Finkelstein ME, Howald GR

(2008) Severity of the effects of invasive rats on seabirds: a global review.

Conservation Biology 22:16-26.

D. Scope (state general purpose, objectives, magnitude).

The objective of this research is to create a quantitative stochastic model of the likelihood of shipwrecks per island, based on current shipping traffic, the number of historic shipwrecks and other suitable predictive variables, in relation to nearby density of small-vessel traffic in the Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands. This model will estimate the risk (defined above) of shipwrecks, the likelihood of rat invasions, and predicted severity of rat invasion on seabirds of the Aleutian and Bering Sea Islands. Products of this work will be delivered in a technical report, a manuscript ready for submission to a scientific journal, and a GIS shape file, consisting of a centroid for each island with a linked database, including the avian resources, the predicted likelihood of a shipwreck, as well as the estimated risk of rat spills for each island.

II. WORK REQUIREMENTS

A. Technical Requirements.

The contractor will furnish all relevant facilities, qualified personnel, material, equipment, and supplies to accomplish the following tasks:

Task 1. Obtain and manage data

• Contact sources and acquire all necessary raw data.

• Compile and manage all data to be used for analyses.

• Document metadata sources and geospatial references.

• Provide USGS, USFWS, and ABSI LCC with all data to be used for analyses in .xlsx or .mdb format, and metadata in .html format.

Task 2. Conduct quantitative modeling analyses of the data

• Conduct all quantitative modeling analyses.

• Document methodological procedures and results of modeling.

• Provide USGS, USFWS, and ABSI LCC with methods and results of modeling procedures in .docx format.

• Provide USGS, USFWS, and ABSI LCC with a GIS shape file, consisting of a centroid for each island with a linked database, including the avian resources, the predicted likelihood of a shipwreck, as well as the estimated risk of rat colonization for each island.

Task 3. Draft technical report and manuscript for publication

• Provide USGS with draft text of results and interpretation for one (1) technical report and one (1) manuscript for publication in a scientific journal, both in .docx format.

• Provide USGS with responses to scientific journal reviews until manuscript has been accepted for publication.

1. Criteria for acceptance of Product or Service (how will contractor's compliance be measured).

• All data used in analyses and all data derived from analyses must be provided in .xlsx or .mdb format, and metadata in .html format within one year of finalized contract.

• Methodological procedures and outcomes of modeling must be provided in .docx format within one year of finalized contract.

• A GIS shape file, consisting of a centroid for each island with a linked database, including the avian resources, the predicted likelihood of a shipwreck, as well as the estimated risk for each island must be provided within one year of finalized contract.

• A technical report, a manuscript for publication in a scientific journal, written in collaboration with USGS, USFWS, and ABSI LCC biologists, both in .docx format must be delivered by 30 September 2016.

B. Deliverables.

Products required to be delivered at the end of this contract:

• All data used in analyses and all data derived from analyses shall be in .xlsx or .mdb format. Metadata shall be in .html format.

• Methods and results of modeling procedures shall be in .docx format.

• The contractor shall deliver a GIS shape file, consisting of a centroid for each island with a linked database, including the avian resources, the predicted likelihood of a shipwreck, as well as the estimated risk of rat spills for each island and a technical report and a manuscript ready for submission to a scientific journal, both in .docx format.

• All products shall be provided to the USGS.

C. Place of Performance.

• This work shall be conducted at the vendor’s establishment. It will also be necessary to meet in person with USGS, USFWS and ABSI LCC biologists periodically, twice during the period of performance, in Anchorage, Alaska.

D. Period of Performance.

• The first task will be from the date of award of the order through 31 August 2015.

• The second task will be from the date of award of the order through 29 February 2016.

• The third and task will be from the date of award of the order through 30 September 2016.

E. Government Furnished Property (GFP): list property and its value.

• None

F. Special Considerations.

1. Key personnel qualifications (researchers, instructors, writers, project managers, programmers, etc.) Individuals assigned to this project must as a minimum meet the following:

• Documented experience that demonstrates the experience to conduct quantitative analyses of complex biological data resulting in scientific publication.

• Documented experience that demonstrates familarity with accessing and working with Voluntary Observing Ship Program (VOS) data on vessel activity and methods of interpolating vessel positions.

• Documented experience that demonstrates familiarity with satellite AIS data (Automatic Identification System) for vessel traffic.

• Demonstrable record of authoring publications in scientific journals.

• Documented experience using software for statistical analyses and quantitative modeling, particularly, familiarity with geospatial analyses and application of spatial ensemble and random forest models.

• Documentation showing extensive knowledge of the geographic study area and study system.

2. Data Rights, Safety, Environment.

All data and related products shall be the property of the US Government.

3. Security/Privacy issues. None