Final Report_NTFP Impact Assessment (Dec 2020).pdf

Study of the Impact of Non-Timber Forest Product Collection on Household and Community Resilience

Final Report

1 December 2020

Acknowledgements

The evaluation team would like to express their sincere gratitude to the staff from Bio Innovation Zimbabwe (BIZ), and the Agriculture Extension (AGRITEX) services in Mudzi and Mutoko of the Ministry of Lands, Agriculture, and Rural Resettlement for their support throughout the impact study.

The study team would specifically like to thank BIZ for their extensive support during the design and planning phases of the study and their review of subsequent drafts of the report. We would also like to express our sincere gratitude to AGRITEX district heads of office in Mudzi and Mutoko.

The team would like to recognise and appreciate all those who participated in the study as key informants and in-group discussions. We give a special thanks to community members that took time out of their busy schedules to speak to us and provide valuable information that has informed this report.

The views and opinions expressed in this report are of the independent study team and do not represent the position of BIZ, BRACT Consortium or the Zimbabwe Resilience Building Fund.

Evaluation Team Ngonidzashe Marimo (Team Leader)

Ebbie Dengu (NRM Management Expert) Dr Godfrey Chagwiza (Statistician)

Table of Contents

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I

TABLE OF CONTENTS II

LIST OF FIGURES III

LIST OF TABLE III

ACRONYMS V

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY VI

1 INTRODUCTION 13

2 BACKGROUND 13

2.1 PROJECT CONTEXT 13

2.2 ABOUT THE NTFP PROJECT 14

2.2.1 Theory of Change 15

2.3 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY 16

2.4 EVALUABILITY ASSESSMENT 16

3 METHODOLOGY 19

3.1 EVALUATION DESIGN 19

3.2 STUDY DESIGN 20

3.2.1 Literature and secondary data review 20

3.2.2 Qualitative study 20

3.2.3 Quantitative study 20

3.2.4 Data Collection 22

3.2.5 Data processing and analysis 22

4 FINDINGS 24

4.1 COLLECTORS AND NON COLLECTORS OF NTFPS 24

4.1.1 NFTPs collected 24

4.1.2 Characteristics of collectors and non-collectors 24

4.1.3 Persons that collect NTFPs 26

4.1.4 Factors influencing collection of NTFPs 27

4.1.5 Factors influencing non-collection of NTFPs 28

4.2 IMPACT ON MARKETS 30

4.2.1 Introduction 30

4.2.2 Most sold NTFPs 30

4.2.3 Key markets for collectors of NTFPs 31

4.2.4 Market Performance 34

4.2.5 Market growth 39

4.3 IMPACT ON LIVELIHOODS 41

4.3.1 Introduction 41

4.3.2 Causal pathway 1: Commercialising NTFPs and guaranteeing availability of viable markets will result in a significant increase in incomes for poor households of Mudzi and Mutoko leading to improved livelihoods 41

4.3.3 Causal pathway 2: Training of farmers in hygiene, organic standards, and proper harvesting will increase volumes collected and subsequently incomes 48

4.3.4 Causal pathway 3: Training of farmers on health benefits of NTFPs will lead to increased consumption of NTFPs 51

4.4 IMPACT ON FOREST CONSERVATION 54

4.4.1 Introduction 54

4.4.2 Causal pathway 1: The value of forests will increase in the community 55

4.4.3 Causal pathway 2: Awareness and attitudes towards forest conservation will change 55

4.4.4 Causal pathway 3: There will be improved forest governance 57

5 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 60

5.1 CONCLUSION 60

5.2 RECOMMENDATIONS 62

ANNEXES 64

ANNEX 1 TERMS OF REFERENCE 64

ANNEX 3: TOOLS 68

Annex 3.1: Qualitative Tools 68 Annex 3.2: Household survey questionnaire 78

List of Figures FIGURE 1: COMPARATIVE TIMELINE OF NTFP COLLECTION AND OTHER HOUSEHOLD LIVELIHOOD ACTIVITIES 43

List of Table

TABLE 1: SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES OF THE EVALUATION 16

TABLE 2: CONTROL CATEGORIES AND KEY QUESTIONS

A 18

TABLE 3: KEY INFORMANT INTERVIEWS 20

TABLE 4: QUANTITATIVE SURVEY SAMPLE SIZE 22

TABLE 5: MOST AND LEAST COLLECTED NTFPS 24

TABLE 6: KEY CHARACTERISTICS OF COLLECTORS AND NON-COLLECTORS 25

TABLE 7: PERSONS INVOLVED IN COLLECTION AND PROCESSING 26

TABLE 8: INFLUENCING FACTORS FOR NTFP COLLECTION 28

TABLE 9: REASON FOR NOT COLLECTING NTFPS 29

TABLE 10: CHARACTERISTICS OF SELLERS 30

TABLE 11: NTFPS SOLD MOST BY COLLECTORS SINCE INCEPTION OF THE BRACT PROJECT 30

TABLE 12: TOTAL SALES OF NTFPS IN MUDZI AND MUTOKO 31

TABLE 13: STRUCTURE OF THE NTFP VC IN MUDZI AND MUTOKO DISTRICTS. 32

TABLE 14: MARKET PERFORMANCE 35

TABLE 15: MAIN CHALLENGE FACED BY COLLECTORS OF NTFPS 37

TABLE 16: INCOME SOURCES 41

TABLE 17: RETURN ON INVESTMENT FOR NTFPS 44

TABLE 18: RETURN ON INVESTMENT FOR GROUNDNUTS 44

TABLE 19: GENDER IMPACTS ( % OF NTFP COLLLECTORS 47

TABLE 20: INDIVIDUAL EFFECTS OF NTFP INCOME 47

TABLE 21: IMPACT OF TRAINING ON SALES 48

TABLE 22: ASSESSMENT OF TRAINING DELIVERY BY BIZ 49

TABLE 23: IMPROVEMENTS NEEDED TO TRAINING 50

TABLE 24: CONSUMPTION OF NTFPS 52

TABLE 25: REASON FOR CONSUMING MORE NTFPS THAN PRE-PROJECT LEVELS 52

TABLE 26: RIPPLE EFFECT OF TRAINING 53

TABLE 27: PERCEIVED BENEFITS FROM CONSUMPTION OF NTFPS 53

TABLE 28: CHALLENGES FACED IN FOREST CONSERVATION 54

TABLE 29: PERCEPTIONS OF AND ATTITUDES TOWARDS FORESTS 56

TABLE 30: CHANGES IN FOREST MANAGEMENT 58

Acronyms BIZ Bio-Innovation Zimbabwe BRACT Building Resilience through improving the Absorptive and Adaptive Capacity for

Transformation EMA Environmental Management Agency FC Forestry Commission NCT Nyahunure Community Trust NGO Non-Governmental Organisation NTFP Non Timber Forest Products RDC Rural District Council VC Value Chain ZimSTAT Zimbabwe Statistics Agency ZimVAC Zimbabwe Vulnerability Assessment Committee ZRBF Zimbabwe Resilience Building Fund

Executive Summary

Background The impact assessment of Non-Timber Forest Product (NTFP) collection on household and community resilience was undertaken between July and October 2020.

The NTFP project implemented by BIZ is part of the Zimbabwe Resilience Building Fund’s (ZRBF) Building Resilience through improving the Absorptive and Adaptive Capacity for Transformation (BRACT) project implemented in Mutoko and Mudzi. BIZ leads on the commercialization of non-timber forest products (NTFP) supply chains, working with producers in the two districts. BIZ plays two roles in the project, that of capacity building, and market linkage facilitator. The project is commercializing species as follows: 1) Ximenia caffra (nhengeni); 2) Ximenia americana (tsvanzva); 3) marula (oil and food grade kernels); 4) Kalahari melon (seed); 5) mobola plum (whole kernels); 6) zumbani; and 7) resurrection bush. At the time of the assessment there were about 1,000 NTFP collectors enrolled in the project, split equally between Mudzi (500) and Mutoko (500) in 11 wards (five wards in Mudzi and six wards in Mutoko). Beneficiaries are enrolled in the project through a self-selection process where those attending training are automatically included as beneficiaries.

NTFP collectors are also free to exit the project at any given point. The project’s theory of change is that:

“1) communities are trained and supported to sustainably commercialise NTFPs, and 2) are linked to and supported to maintain viable markets THEN there will be 1) increased consumption of NTFPs; 2) increased contribution of NTFPs to household incomes; 3) improved food security and dietary diversity for NTFP collectors; 4) improved forest conservation outcomes.

Objectives of the study The objectives of the study were to: 1) assess the success of the BIZ project and identify positive and negative impacts on household incomes, resilience strategies and natural resource conservation; 2) collect information to answer research questions on the use of NTFPs as a sustainable approach to rural development which can improve consumption, income, and conservation through collection and sale.

Evaluation Approach An evaluability assessment conducted during the inception phase of the study concluded that a baseline could not be ascertained or reconstructed. Based on the results of the rapid evaluability assessment, the impact study adopted a theory-based evaluation. In this approach, the impact study tested the efficacy of the envisaged causal pathways of the NTFP project including determining what conditions make the causal linkages successful. These pathways were adopted from the project theory of change.

The study design also became a one shot quasi-experimental design (with control and treatment) premised on recall to ascertain contribution of the NTFP project. By testing whether envisaged causal pathways in the theory of change materialised, the evaluation was also able to infer contribution.

This approach meant a fundamental shift from a typical impact study whose fundamental purpose is to determine the attribution i.e. what portion of the observed change can be attributed to the project. Diverging from this normal approach became particularly important for this project given it is still ongoing and that interventions have not yet reached maturity to observe impacts, thus a blended approach (formative and theory based) is more appropriate. The formative approach will aid in providing the project remedial or strengthening actions required to achieve the causal pathways, while the theory approach determined the feasibility of these pathways in the theory of change.

Using the true counterfactual – individuals who attended one training but have not begun to sell NTFPs (that met both observable and non-observable characteristics of the treatment) was challenging because the numbers were inadequate to make conclusive judgements. Given this limitation, a decision was made to control for various dimensions of the project. In this regard, the study ended up with four categories of control households: NTFP collectors trained once by BIZ but not selling NTFPs, NTFP collectors trained more than once but not selling NTFPS, those never trained by BIZ but selling NTFPs, and those that did not receive any training and aren’t selling NTFPs.

The study also used mixed methods (qualitative and quantitative) drawn from primary and secondary sources.

Methodology Quantitative data was collected from three sources: the BIZ sales database, structured household interviews with NTFP collectors that were selling as treatment households and the four categories of control households. The Yamene tables were used to come up with an acceptable sample size .1

Given that the target population of 1000 was small, there was need to increase the sample size. This because a given sample size provides proportionately more information for small populations than for a large population. The initial sample size was therefore adjusted. A sample of 144 treatment and 70 control was found sufficient. The sampling technique that was used was a 4-level stratified random sampling drawing from the BIZ sales and training databases. Firstly, we stratified by number of trainings which led to the following strata: 1-training, 2-trainings and more than 2 trainings.

Second level stratification was by product sales level and this resulted into low and high categories of the 3 most sold products. Mean sales of each product were used to group sales into low or high. The third stratification was by gender or sex of the individual resulting into female and male strata. Lastly, we stratified by age of an individual. Probability proportional to size was used to allocate sample quota in each of the categories. The sample was split equally between the two districts.

Enumerators who underwent a three day training and pilot testing conducted data collection. Data was collected using tablets running on Kobo Collect to ensure data was available real-time.

Qualitative data was collected through Key Informant Interviews (KIIs) with market players, BIZ and government departments involved in the project and Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) treatment and control households. In-depth case studies were also used to gather information on change and how the change was occurring in beneficiary households and why non-beneficiaries were not involved including what it would take to get them involved.

Findings

Collectors of NTFPs

● NTFP collectors are predominantly female.

● However, males are increasingly getting involved although they are still outnumbered by women.

Commercialisation of NTFPs was influencing changes in attitudes towards NTFPs as women and children’s responsibility. For men, the commercialized NTFPs were providing an alternative source of income in a context where normal sources of income have been disrupted by consecutive droughts.

● Majority of NTFP collectors are poor although less are in the very poor category when compared to control households. This can be linked to demands for labour in NTFP collection and

1 See section processing which can be a limited resource for very poor households thus acting as a disincentive for joining NTFP collection.

● Young people are not involved in NTFP collection. 93% of NTFP collectors were above 35 years of age.

● In 53% and 61% of the households, the person that underwent training was the one solely responsible for NTFP collection and processing respectively. The reason is that they are able to ensure adherence to standards required by buyers. However, when assistance is needed, the spouse or daughter is called to help. Male members of the household are not as engaged as female members.

● Collection of NTFPs was being influenced by (in order of importance): new found commercial value in NTFPs; no money needed to collect, process and sell NTFPs as compared to traditionally cultivated cash crops; seeing NTFP collectors changing lives because of income from selling NTFPs; disruption of alternative income sources as traditional off-farm income disturbed by increased poverty levels in communities due to crop failures; NTFPs are drought resistant allowing collectors to diversify and mitigate risk of crop failure during droughts; and nutritional and medicinal value of NTFPs.

● Factors influencing non collection of NTFPs were: collection and processing of NTFPs is too labour intensive (93%); buyers do not pay well (67%) ; lack of knowledge of the commercialised2

NTFPs (20%); and the certification process is too demanding (20%).

Impact on markets

● Prior to the project, no market existed for NTFPs commercialised by the project.

● Since inception of the project, 782 farmers have sold a total of USD $7,568.13 in NTFPs with each farmer receiving a total average of US$ 9.68 over the course of one year of sales.

● According to the BIZ sales database, NTFPs with the most sales were: mobola kernels ($3,602.46;

47.6%), Ximenia caffra seed ($2,056.36; 27.2%) and KMS ($676.04; 0.09%).

● The market for NTFPs in Zimbabwe has not matured making it necessary to institute market interventions as done by BIZ including training of farmers, support with research and organic certification, and bulking.

● BIZ market linkage approach though founded on the idea of gradually introducing farmers to markets may not be functioning as well as farmers bemoaned limited interaction with the market. Farmers needed more interaction with the market. BIZ has started to increase this interaction by separating training and buying to ensure farmers receive the best experience out of market interaction.

● The NTFP collectors are still to meet volumes demanded by buyers. For some NTFPs, such as moringa and zumbani dried leaves, NTFP collectors were not meeting the quality demanded by the market because of limited appropriate drying places and for some challenges in putting the knowledge to practice.

● Ability to achieve an increased and reliable supply of various NTFPs is affected by: 1) lack of land for organic farming of NTFPs; 2) labour intensive processing; 3) consecutive droughts, which have limited forests harvests; 4) poor availability of NTFPs in some areas; and 5) payment using mobile money transfer.

● BIZ has achieved a high level of trust with buyers on quality of NTFPs sold. However, there are issues that need to be addressed to ensure consistent quality including strengthening NTFP collector groups (or clusters) self-monitoring as organic certification is given per cluster. Organic certification guarantees a market and viable prices.

● The market has potential to grow but has to overcome several impediments:

i. the business operating environment in Zimbabwe which is uncertain and is not conducive to long term planning and investment; inability to access cash either in local

2 This was linked to the payment in RTGS (Zimbabwe local electronic currency) through Ecocash a mobile money transfer platform.

currency or United States Dollars (USD) from banks which has resulted in a reliance on mobile money transfers to NTFP collectors where they lose as much as 75% of the value of their income;

ii. accessing/breaking into export markets is a long process that needs ongoing market development work;

iii. working with local supermarket chains is also a challenge as there is a stigma on indigenous products, the local market prefers manufactured products; and

iv. yields from certain tree species are going down, for example some FGDs in Mutoko indicated that marula and hacha fruit yields are going down.

Effect of training

● Training by BIZ was linked to higher performance of NTFP collectors in terms of volume of NTFPs collected and income received. According to respondents, training enhances their ability to maintain quality standards, which ensures higher prices and motivates them to collect more knowing the benefits one can receive.

● The effect of training on NTFP productivity reflects quality delivery and ability of those trained to put into practice the new knowledge. It also demonstrates the quality of training provided by BIZ as almost all respondents were satisfied with it.

● The high quality delivery of training was leading to high adoption and practice as 74% and 96% of trainees in Mudzi and Mutoko were fully using the training.

Impact on livelihoods

● At 2.3% of total household cash income, NTFPs were making a marginal contribution to household cash income of NTFP collectors. Therefore, the project is yet to make an impact on incomes of collectors and thus the causal pathway is still to be realised. The main reason for limited incomes from NTFPs despite the buying prices being higher than for main cash crops in the two districts was the payment method of using mobile money. Combined with exchange distortions in the country at the time of the study, NTFP collectors were losing as much as 75% of the value of their money . Secondly, the timing of the impact study also had a contribution to the3 observed effect. Delays in project implementation meant at the time of the study, NTFP collectors had only one year of selling NTFPs and a majority were still learning and exploring what could be the likely return of collecting NTFPs against other livelihood options available to them.

● The limited contribution of NTFPs to household income presents a potential opportunity cost for households that could undermine continued involvement in the collection of NTFPs. For poor households with labour, groundnuts , sewing reed mats, collecting and selling thatching grass,4 brick making and artisanal mining were their main income sources. Sale of NTFPs were ranked at the bottom of household cash income sources in all FGDs with collectors.

● Collection of some NTFPs coincides with critical on-farm activities – weeding and harvesting.

Although farmers do allocate some time for collection during these critical on-farm activities, it is inadequate to raise volumes.

● However, when return on investment (mainly return on labour) is assessed, NTFPs have a much higher return on investment than any of the major cash crops in the two districts ranging from

4 Groundnuts in communal set up can be grown without Compound fertilisers especially where there is residual manure thereby reducing the cost of purchasing chemicals

3 NTFP collectors are paid using mobile money. When purchasing goods and services a charge of between 30-60% is included on the purchase price if one buys using mobile money. The same is charged by agents of mobile money operators if one wanted to withdraw cash from their mobile money account. Additional losses were due the hyperinflationary environment where delays in payments meant the value of the transfer would be eroded.

346.68 to 0.822 per 1 US$ invested. This compared to 1.68 per 1US$ invested for groundnuts the major cash earner in the two districts.

● To harness this potential and increase real cash incomes for NTFP collectors, changes are required in: 1) the payment method; 2) timeliness of payment; and 3) the currency of payment.

The increase in cash income from these changes will likely incentivise farmers to invest more time inn NTFPs collection.

● However, and in addition to NTFPs collected in forests, cultivated NTFPs (such as rosella and wild melons) provide the greatest potential because of their convenience and household level control. They still provide a return on investment of more than 20 times that from groundnuts.

There is significant fallow land available, at about 3.19 acres (Mudzi) and 1.76 acres (Mutoko) but the challenge of limited availability of pyrathrods-free land may be the challenge given these chemicals are in active use in the two districts to reduce malaria.

● Despite the low contribution to overall household income, NTFP income was filling a critical and supporting gap in the household. 52% and 10% of NTFP income is used for health and education expenditure compared to 2.6% and 7.2% from other sources.

● Despite current low real incomes from NTFPs, they were viewed as a means of diversifying income sources especially in times of frequent droughts and crop failure.

● There is strong evidence that selling NTFPs is having a positive effect on gender. Women who are selling NTFPs are being empowered through more respect in the home, improved gender relations in the home and improvement of their status in the community.

● There were few disagreements on how to use the NTFP income as only 1% of respondents reported disagreements.

● Such impact may be due to the low levels of real income obtained from sales of NTFPs at the time of the evaluation as other studies have shown that as income increases men want greater involvement, which in turn leads to disagreements and these in turn to some form of GBV . This5 is an area the project will need to pay attention to.

● In general, participating in the project (collecting and selling NTFPs) builds individual confidence and self-worth helping participants to interact with others in the community more than they used to before the project. Eighty three percent of project participants (66% in Mudzi and 99% in Mutoko) agreed, “I now feel more confident in myself and interaction with others in the community since we started collecting and selling NTFPs”.

● The project was enhancing social capital for NTFP collectors based on reciprocity (getting social network involved in NTFP collection and selling). For example, about 90% (83% in Mudzi and 96% in Mutoko) agreed that, “Other community members have been asking me about how they can also start collecting and selling NTFPs”.

● Consumption of NTFPs has increased for both control and treatment households.

● Training by BIZ has had the greatest effect on observed NTFP consumption changes. For treatment households, the main reason for almost all respondents that consumed more NTFPs than pre-project was the training received from BIZ (99%) and the main reason for 63% of the control households .6

● While there was an increase in consumption (both volumes and diversity) of NTFPs by control and treatment households a higher proportion of non-NTFP collectors consumed more NTFPs than before the project when compared to NTFP collectors. . The main reason for this could be that a significant proportion of treatment households were treating NTFPs as an enterprise and therefore eating what they collect or harvest would reduce the money they would earn from sales.

6 These households received training from BIZ but had not started collecting.

5 Marimo, N, Matshalaga, N. Muzvondiwa, E. (2013) Gender Analysis of the Malawi Agriculture Sector Wide Approach (ASWaP). Consultancy report prepared for the Malawi Ministry of Agriculture by JIMAT Development Consultants.

● Some 22% and 4% of control households consume more NTFPs after a recommendation from a

(1) friend or (2) relative. This point is particularly important because it demonstrates the ripple effect that can be achieved from training one group and its implications on value for money of the project.

Impact on forest conservation

● The collection of NTFPs has not had any observed negative effect on other uses of the forests

(e.g. firewood, fruits, fencing and housing material etc).

● There was evidence from the FGDs and household surveys of communities now more jealously guarding their forests.

● Communities have increased knowledge and awareness of the value of forests, for example, they now readily report trespassers to village heads and EMA village monitors.

● Village heads, and in most cases those included as beneficiaries of the project, are now actively engaged in conservation of natural resources in their areas. For example, village heads in participating communities have decreed no cutting down of such useful trees as nhengeni (Ximenia caffra) in their areas for fence making on gardens and cattle pens.

● Forest governance or protection of trees providing NTFPs was uneven across the study areas and greater when village heads were involved in the project. Knowledge of forests benefits remains extractive. This knowledge needs to broaden to facilitate change in attitudes and ultimately wider scale improved forest management. This suggest that there are areas that the project needs to address to improve forest governance.

Recommendations

Strengthening NTFPs markets

● Recommendation 1: It is necessary to provide refresher training workshops and market linkage support to farmers well beyond the three year project cycle to expand the organized supply/collector base and share the risk with buyers. This may be done through building capacity of local service providers for example Agritex and Forestry Commission or private sector and lead collectors.

● Recommendation 2: BIZ should explore and consolidate quality control systems that would work beyond the life of the project. Review and draw lessons from the Kaza local agent system that works through clusters, cluster leaders, village cluster leaders and Agritex including strengthening of cluster self-generated rules and monitoring mechanisms.

● Recommendation 3: Improve the buying and payment system so that farmers/collectors realize the full value of their collected and sold NTFPs.

● Recommendation 4: BIZ should ensure the NTFP Value Chains build on the Research and Development work that BIZ is doing and develop more long-term strategic priorities for the sector to pursue and leverage resources for development of both products and high value markets. Sequencing of local and export market development initiatives is important in the commercialization of NTFP value chains given the stigma issue on indigenous products.

● Recommendation 5: Consolidate the positioning of the NTFP commercialization initiative at the district and local community levels and explore opportunities to collaborate with complimentary initiatives and advocate for investment environment that promote the NTFP Value Chains at the national level. New project initiatives promoting NTFPs should build in costs of communicating and making the case for NTFP contribution to livelihood security and natural resources management at local, district and national levels.

Forest management

● Recommendation 6: The program should explore ways of supporting initiatives that protect and expand the planting of useful trees. This should be combined with strengthening of participation of village heads and EMA ward monitors in the project to ensure effective forest management.

Increasing consumption of NTFPs and traditional foods

● Recommendation 7: The project needs to strengthen behaviour change communication premised on the health benefits of NTFPs to enhance consumption of NTFPs and traditional foods.

Gender sensitive approach

● Recommendation 8: While there were no observed negative gender outcomes of the project mainly because incomes from NTFPs were still low, with increased incomes there are likely to be negative gender outcomes, as men will want to be involved. Therefore, the project needs to employ a gender sensitive approach to avoid income-related GBV as sales of NTFPs increase and households realise significant increase in real incomes. This will include involvement of husbands of NTFP collectors in the process, training in gender equality and women’s empowerment to both genders etc.

1 Introduction This report provides details of an impact study undertaken to understand the impacts of promoting Non Timber Forest Products in Mudzi and Mutoko. The study was conducted between July and October 2020 with data collection completed in July 2020. The report provides background to the NTFP project, objectives of the impact study, details of the methodology used and any modifications, and the finds of the impact study. It also provides conclusions emanating from the analysis of data collected and recommendations for strengthening the project.

2 Background The Non Timber Forest Product (NTFP) activities, under study, are part of a larger resilience building programme implemented by a consortium of 5 NGOs entitled Building Resilience through improving the Absorptive and Adaptive Capacity for Transformation (BRACT) in Mudzi and Mutoko since end of 2017. The consortium led by Christian Aid includes Bio-Innovation Zimbabwe (BIZ), Silveira House, CTDO and Nyahunure Community Trust (NCT). BRACT aims to contribute to increased resilience of at risk households and communities in Mudzi and Mutoko, in order to improve the viability of livelihoods and enhance wellbeing. It does this through three components: (1) Improve capacity to anticipate, prepare and respond to shocks and stresses in order to maintain productive capacity; (2) Develop diversified, viable livelihood options adapted to climatic and socio-economic shocks and stresses; and (3) Strengthen community voice and ability to engage service providers and enhance their participation in decision making. The NTFP component of BRACT implemented by BIZ, is part of the second component focused on developing diversified livelihoods that are responsive to climatic and social-economic shocks and stresses.

2.1 Project Context7

Mudzi and Mutoko districts have total populations of 133,252 and 146,127 people respectively. Of this population, only 2.9% and 6.8% respectively is classified as urban population. While Mudzi and Mutoko’s population growth rates of 2.2% and 2.0% respectively (ZimSTAT 2012) may, on paper, appear to be moderate, against the backdrop of limited resources, this may still present significant pressure on the available resources. In both districts, at least 56% of the households have four or more people. The majority of people in these two districts depend on communal farming as a form of employment. Mudzi and Mutoko have 67.4% and 68.6% of the population employed as communal farmers (ZimSTAT, 2012).

The two districts of Mudzi and Mutoko are characterised by high chronic food insecurity due to poor rainfall patterns. For example, at the peak of hunger season in 2016/7, Mudzi had the highest proportion of food insecure population in the country at 78.9% while Mutoko was significantly high at 52.7% (Zimvac, 2016). These figures are also buttressed by chronic food security figures which stand at 8.53% and 5.08% respectively (Zimvac, 2016). Poverty is also significantly high in the two districts with Mudzi being among the poorest districts in the country with a poverty prevalence of 90% whilst Mutoko is also relatively high at 81.3% (Zim Poverty Atlas, 2015). Mudzi and Mutoko districts also have stunting rates above the national average of 26.6% at 32% and 27% respectively (Zimvac, 2016). High stunting rates tend to affect cognitive development of the population, which in turn limits economic potential due to low education levels.

7 This section is largely adapted from the BRACT consortium proposal to ZRBF to reflect the situation before the project.

Both Mudzi and Mutoko are traditionally drought prone. Rainfall is erratic and poorly distributed with frequent mid-season dry spells. They also experience high rates of evaporation due to persistently high temperature for greater parts of the year, also reducing effective rainfall. Most rivers dry up soon after the lapse of the rainy season due to the high temperatures, leaving most households to rely on underground sources of water for domestic and agricultural purposes.

Subsequently, there is no perennial river for Mudzi. In most parts of Mudzi, with poor soils, there is little potential to support rain fed crop production even though the district is well suited for livestock production. With changing climate and agricultural practices that are not fully adapted to the physical conditions, the two districts suffer from chronic food insecurity. They are also prone to other hazards that include environmental degradation with hazard indices of 0.3806 and 0.585 respectively (ZimVAC, 2012). Most of the environmental degradation is from illegal gold mining activities in Mudzi, while granite mining also contributes to the same in Mutoko. The mining of granite has often been characterised by conflict and mistrust between the miners and local communities, mainly because local communities feel they are not benefiting from exploitation of this natural resource and that the miners are destroying the environment. Poor farming methods and veld fires are also, to a larger extent, contributing to the state of the natural environment. There is weak enforcement of environmental protection laws.

The two districts are therefore highly exposed to the impacts of climate change and climate variability, leading to dry spells, droughts, and floods. High poverty prevalence and substantially high state of natural resource degradation combine to elevate the vulnerability of livelihoods to shocks and stresses. This vulnerability limits opportunities in livelihoods, employment, gender equality and economic development in general. With limited local opportunities for production, income generation and employment available to earn a decent living, most households resort to negative coping mechanisms like selling firewood or engaging in illegal activities like poaching and gold panning, all of which will have a negative impact on the physical environment.

However, the two districts have strong potential in the diverse natural plant species where non-timber forest products (NTFPs) can be collected or harvested for industrial markets. The north-western part of Mutoko is also renowned for vibrant tomato and leafy vegetable production.

The communities have embraced conservation agriculture techniques and demonstrated interest in drought tolerant small grains and small livestock (indigenous chickens and goats). These districts, therefore, present the highest opportunity to support households and communities unlock value in their local resources, build on their potential for significant impact, and most importantly, learning about what works in strengthening resilience.

2.2 About the NTFP Project

Commercialization of non-timber forest products (NTFPs) has been widely promoted as an approach to rural development in recent years. However, there have been mixed results in terms of the impact and longer-term sustainability of NTFP commercialisation. In theory, NTFP commercialization can play an important role in rural livelihood strategies and can contribute to conservation of forest ecosystems, but understanding how and under what circumstances NTFPs can shape rural livelihoods is thin, mainly due to lack of empirical data and evidence. The emerging contemporary picture calls for a more diversified research approach towards forest and NTFP use, with attention being paid to NTFP sources other than natural forests and to the broader socio-economic and spatial context in which forest use occurs .8

8JOUR Ros-Tonen, Mirjam- Wiersum, K.- 2005/01/01- The Scope for Improving Rural Livelihoods Through Non-timber Forest Products: An Evolving Research Agenda VL - 15- 10.1080/14728028.2005.9752516 JO - Forest, Trees and Livelihoods 15 (2005) 2

As a partner on the ZRBF/BRACT project, BIZ leads on the commercialization of non-timber forest product (NTFP) supply chains, working with producers in Mudzi and Mutoko districts in Zimbabwe.

The project is commercializing eight previously non-commercialized species as follows:

1. Ximenia caffra (seed);

2. Ximenia americana (seed);

3. Marula (oil and food grade kernels);

4. Kalahari melon (seed);

5. Mobola plum (whole kernels);

6. Zumbani (leaves); and

7. Resurrection bush (twigs) .9

About 1,000 NTFP collectors were enrolled in the project at the time of the study, split equally between Mudzi (500) and Mutoko (500) in 11 wards (five wards in Mudzi and six wards in Mutoko).

Beneficiaries are enrolled on the project through a self-selection process where those attending training are automatically included as beneficiaries. NTFP collectors are also free to exit the project at any given point.

BIZ plays two roles in the project: that of capacity building, and market linkage facilitator. BIZ undertakes several trainings with NTFP collectors including:

a) training in ecological, cultural, social, economic and nutritional importance of forests;

b) training in sustainable harvesting;

c) training in hygiene, processing, record keeping and storage;

d) nutrition training: understanding that there’s more than monetary value to trees and local wild crops;

e) training in domestication/ cultivation of NTFP species to bring them closer to farmers’ homesteads

f) training in organic certification for the European (EU) and American (NOP) standard

NTFP collectors are continuously supported to ensure reliable yields and consistent and quality supply, and adherence to organic product certification requirements and guidelines. The project engages local leadership and government stakeholders (Rural District Councils (RDC), and Agriculture Extension (Agritex)).

2.2.1 Theory of Change

The project’s theory of change is premised on the following problems:

a) poor management of forest resources is leading to rapid deforestation;

b) high dependence on on-farm enterprises by poor households limits their livelihood diversity and in turn adaptive capacity of these households in the event of weather based shocks;

c) low incomes and poor dietary diversity leading to poor nutrition outcomes for poorer households; and

d) communities lack knowledge and markets for commercialising various NTFPs leading to limited exploitation of NTFPs.

To address these main problems the project hypothesises that if:

9 Resurrection bush is not yet commercialized in Mudzi and remains only in Mutoko. The main reason is that market demand is very small, so there is no need to train many farmers who may never sell.

“1) communities are trained and supported to sustainably commercialise NTFPs, and 2) are linked to and supported to maintain viable markets THEN there will be 1) increased consumption of NTFPs; 2) increased contribution of NTFPs to household incomes; 3) improved food security and dietary diversity for NTFP collectors; and 4) improved forest conservation outcomes.

2.3 Objectives of the Study

Given the parameters set out by the TOR for a study of the impact of NTFP activities under ZRBF/BRACT among target households in Mudzi and Mutoko Districts, the study had a dual focus (Evaluative and Research) as follows:

i. Evaluative – To assess the success of the BIZ project and identify positive and negative impacts on household incomes, resilience strategies and natural resource conservation.

This explored the success of the intervention logic for BIZ – how change is happening and which interventions are having the greatest effect on the hypothesized logic.

ii. Research – To collect information to answer research questions on the use of NTFP as a sustainable approach to rural development which can improve consumption, income and conservation outcomes through collection and sale.

The purpose of the assignment was to carry out a study of the impact of NTFP interventions under the BRACT program with the aim of identifying both positive and negative impacts on household incomes, resilience strategies and natural resource conservation. Table 1 consolidates the issues explored by the study by the hypotheses presented above of: 1) improved consumption, ii) improved income and iii) improved conservation outcomes through the collection and sale of NTFPs:

Table 1: Specific objectives of the evaluation

Hypothesis Specific issues from TOR improved consumption ● Time and opportunity costs of NTFP harvesting for households;

● Who collects NTFPs (men, women, girls, boys, youth, adults), whether some groups are opting out and why;

● Local consumption of NTFPs (before and after commercialization efforts began)

● Frequency of consumption of traditional foods in general

Improved income ● Collectors’ access to new and existing markets for NTFPs;

● Impact on NTFP buyers’ supply chain (quality, reliability, onward sales);

● Return on investment for NTFP harvesting, sales

● Household income flows over the calendar year, broken down by both farm and off-farm income (NTFP and other off-farm)

● Household decision making around household asset control and use (income from sales, what is collected, when it is sold), household income flows, priorities for household income (food, school fees, medical, farm)

Improved conservation outcomes through the collection and sale of NTFPs

● Perception of natural resources, conservation behaviors, community or district policies

● Biodiversity of trees, forest, source areas

2.4 Evaluability Assessment

To ascertain the level of and proffer recommendations for improving the evaluability of the project, we conducted a rapid evaluability assessment of the project. The rapid evaluability assessment focused on two of the components of an evaluability assessment : evaluability in practice which10 assesses availability of relevant information for the evaluation and data capacity management systems and evaluability in principle. The evaluability in principle was enhanced by retrospectively developing the TOC and accompanying assumptions. The focus of the evaluability assessment was on the evaluability in practice.

The first consideration for evaluability in practice was the evaluation period for impact. The project has been operational in the two districts since October 2017, thus has been operational for 34 months up to June 2020. However, according to BIZ , at least 18 months is required for training to11 ensure beneficiaries are able to produce consistent volumes and product quality before full engagement with the market. Discussions with BIZ also revealed that the project faced a slow start with challenges of a local partner until end of 2018. Given this scenario, an effective assessment of impact of increased income can only be done from the time that beneficiaries began to interact with the market and the project was fully operational. Thus, a cut off of April 2019 to March 2020 sales will be used in the assessment of impact of sales on household income and consumption.

The project has no baseline in place and neither a quasi-experimental design (treatment and control assessment) incorporated in the monitoring system. This makes assessment of impact challenging as there is no counterfactual data or data from the baseline. However, review of the beneficiary database showed following:

● participants in the project self-selected that is there were no selection criteria for enrolment but attendance to the training;

● there are community members that attended one training and never returned, or collected NTFPs;

● there are community members that have attended several trainings but are not selling NTFPs;

● there are community members who have not attended training but are collecting and selling NTFPs (“crowding in” participants); and

● beneficiaries that participated in one or more trainings and collecting and selling NTFPs.

A true counterfactual is based on observable (poverty, location, age, gender etc.) and non-observable (motivation, social standing etc.) characteristics that are similar to participants. Based on the analysis of the various groups in the database our true counterfactual (“no project scenario) was drawn from those that participated in one training but did not proceed to collection and selling of NTFPs. This selection assumes that they had the same motivation as beneficiaries to participate in the project.

Further exploration of observable characteristics to match with the treatment were done retrospectively. The numbers of this true counterfactual were inadequate to make conclusive comparative analysis judgements on the project’s influence on beneficiaries or treatment. Given these limitations, a decision was made to control for various dimensions of the project not just the entire project influence as presented in Table 2. Using this approach, we decided on four categories of control. Each category controls for a certain dimension of the project as detailed in Table 2.

11 See PowerPoint presentation ZRBF Learning Event NTFP slides

10 Three dimensions are essential when undertaking an evaluability assessment. The 1- adequacy of the program design, including its clarity, coherence, feasibility and relevance, which is the evaluability in principle.

The 2- availability of information, data capacity management system, which is the evaluability in practice. And the 3- conduciveness of the context for the evaluation, especially stakeholder’s and key users’ views and resources available.

Table 2: Control categories and key questionsa

Control What are we controlling for?

Never trained but selling Influence of training on collection performance?

1. Volumes,

2. Quality

3. Sales

What is the influence of gender, and age?

What is their consumption NTFPs?

Trained once but never sold Why they are not selling?

Why did they stop coming for training?

What could make them sell?

Consumption NTFPs?

Alternative income options?

Trained more than once but not selling

Why they are not selling?

Why do they keep attending training?

What could make them sell?

Consumption NTFPs?

Non participants (no training , no selling)

Alternative income options?

Perceptions of NTFPs?

Forest use?

What could make them participate?

Consumption NTFPs?

athese questions do not substitute but are additional to the questions provided in the TOR.

Given no baseline exists for whichever dimension we control for there were limitations on reaching conclusive attribution judgements. In this regard, the evaluation remained a one shot retrospective quasi-experimental design premised on comparative analysis between control and treatment.

Attempts to recreate a baseline with the ZIMVAC data was challenging due to restrictions imposed on data access by the Zimbabwe Food and Nutrition Council who are custodians of the data. Using baseline data from the ZRBF’s Outcome Monitoring Surveys (OMS) also proved unviable, as there was very limited overlap between respondents of the OMS survey and the impact study. Thus, a baseline could not be reconstructed.

This said, the benefit is that this study will create a baseline and panel for any further downstream impact assessment of the project. For the current assessment, recall was used to reconstruct the baseline but for limited indicators because of the shortcomings of this method.

The period between the start of the project, full commercialisation of NTFPs (which started in 2019) and this impact study does not allow sufficient time to assess nutrition outcomes and conservation outcomes in full, which are central tenets in the theory of change. These outcomes require more time than the 12 months since commercialisation. In this regard, the nutrition outcomes were measured through consumption (food consumption and dietary diversity) as proxy. Conservation outcomes were measured through perceptions of forests (and how these changed when compared to before the project), initiatives being planned or underway to enhance conservation of forest resources.

3 Methodology

3.1 Evaluation Design

Basing on the results of the rapid evaluability assessment, the impact study adopted a theory-based evaluation. In this approach, the impact study tested the efficacy of the envisaged causal pathways of the NTFP project including determining what conditions make the causal linkages successful. These pathways were adopted from the project theory of change discussed in Section 2.2.1, were the following:

Section Causal pathways Impact on Markets

The project seeks to address lack of knowledge on the alternative livelihood opportunities presented by NTFPs by: 1) raising awareness and knowledge of NTFPs, 2) supporting sustainable harvesting of NTFPs, and 3) supporting market linkages with buyers of NTFPs. This was premised on the assumption that “Farmers and producers of marketable non-timber forest products (NTFPs) lack access to information and knowledge, as well as skills and capabilities to access more profitable value chains” (BRACT Project Proposal document).

Impact on livelihoods

1. Causal pathway 1: commercialising NTFPs and guaranteeing availability of viable markets will result in a significant increase in collection and sales of NTFPS which, will in turn increase incomes for poor households of Mudzi and Mutoko, leading to improved well being outcomes.

2. Causal pathway 2: training of farmers in hygiene, organic standards, and proper harvesting will increase volumes and quality of NTFPs collected and sold and subsequently incomes.

3. Causal pathway 3: training of farmers on health/nutrition benefits of NTFPs will lead to increased collection and consumption of NTFPs.

Impact on forest conservation

“IF commercial value of forests increases combined with increased awareness on the importance of forest…