Attachment_1-_SCOTCh_SOO_vw.pdf

STATEMENT OF OBJECTIVES

Spacecraft Object Tracking and Characterization (SCOTCH)

23 January 2018

I. SPACE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS (SSA)

The Spacecraft Object Tracking and Characterization (SCOTCH) program’s focus on fundamental principles and phenomenology for understanding space provide the backbone for new techniques to be implemented in a contested environment. Projects range from basic research for new scientific discovery with applications beyond what can be conceived, to algorithmic analysis of space objects brightness curves and orbital characteristics from initial concept through transition into operational centers, filling gaps in our Space Situational Awareness (SSA) knowledge.

There are several specific development thrusts that need to be addressed in the proposal.

It is expected new developments would build upon existing SSA detection, tracking, identification, and characterization techniques and identify the proposed improvement over existing techniques for novel new ideas. New developments would then be integrated into the larger SSA enterprise. Proposals shall address all areas. Areas to be addressed include:

1. Statistical photometric change detection for geosynchronous (GEO) satellites.

Develop advancements for timely (near real time) change detection and attribute changes to satellite behavior that are extensible to multiple satellites, are of interest.

Current techniques provide timely change detection for satellites with easily established, repeatable baselines. Developments will establish robust baselines for more complex satellite behavior, and detect changes within minutes, assuming the satellite is observable, and deliver prototype software validated against real data.

A calculation of the confidence levels of the estimated parameter and resultant fused information products will be addressed to reduce false alarms and to make sense of diverse information sets. Other areas of interest include concepts using machine learning and/or color information to improve performance.

2. Plume detection. Thruster plumes provide key information about a spacecraft’s maneuver capability. Current technology uses models of thruster plume radiometry, shape and its evolution over time, validated by lab data and on orbit measurement to extract information about the future orbit of the satellite. Software has been developed to extract the plume information from a resolved image of the plume.

The contractor will validate the performance of this software and deliver test results. The contractor will accomplish R&D to determine what other satellite characteristics can be obtained and deliver a technical report. The contractor will develop a sensor payload capable of detecting the plumes for technique validation, and deliver a technical report on capability and design.

3. Techniques for attitude and shape retrieval, periodicity analysis, and initial stability assessments for satellites. Develop automated software for determining the characteristics of satellites and detect changes, and demonstrate using real data.

Previous work has developed automated software to assess the periodicity of satellites initial stability. However, these techniques are fundamentally limited by the data obtained, and don’t always give results that lead to the correct conclusion about the operating mode of the satellite. New techniques for assessing new objects (like uncorrelated tracks) and monitoring for changes in known objects are of interest. Examples include determining 3 axis spin rates and evaluating the effectiveness of new phenomenology (Long-Wave Infrared (LWIR), etc.). A calculation of the confidence levels of the estimated parameter and resultant fused information products will be addressed to reduce false alarms and to make sense of diverse information sets. Proposals shall assess the effectiveness of proposed techniques with different tasking concepts and discuss the challenges for broadly applying the proposed techniques to all objects.

4. Universal database of sensor data for diverse characterization techniques.

Using modern computing/software standards that will allow for integration into AFRL’s Advanced Research, Collaboration, and Application Development Environment (ARCADE), develop a system that will provide updated satellite characteristics for multiple algorithms. SSA data comes from a diverse set of DoD, academic, commercial, civil, and international sources. Sensors have their own features and limitations that are suitable to some analysis techniques, and not others. A universal data dictionary is needed so that data from different sources can be used by multiple analysis methodology. Confidence levels need to be calculated and available for the information within the database. This database of sensor data will allow for collaborative SSA development on real data.

5. Tasking tools for automated sensor scheduling. Develop automated sensor scheduling software. Current techniques evaluate information needs for new object discover, custody, and orbit maintenance, or evaluate sensor visibilities of a specific satellite component based on the selection of the component in the model. New developments need to integrate orbital and characterization techniques, and account for new characterization needs, including both model based techniques, and those that require no a priori information of the satellite.

6. Advanced estimation techniques for orbit determination and characterization techniques. Develop software for advanced estimation techniques for orbit determination and characterization based on specific object information as it is received. For example, probabilistic admissible regions could be developed for orbit determination based on better estimation of error distribution of measurements and their propagation through space. Hierarchical and probabilistic reasoning techniques could be developed to provide indications and warnings.

7. Multi-level-security, integration environment for integration of SSA R&D tools into the SSA architecture. Develop an integrated data environment, workflows, and analysis tools that integrate all source photometric intelligence and provides real time displays to analysts and tactical operators. The environment must be able to integrate current and future techniques for indication and warnings that tie observables to events and scenarios. All information presented to operators must be easy to understand, provide the capability for technical annotations, and the ability to drill down for additional information. Finally, methods for extracting lower classification information are of interest.

I. Space Situational Awareness (SSA)