EPA-R3-CBP-23-18 Modeling Data Analysis FINAL.pdf

OVERVIEW

AGENCY: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

TITLE: Chesapeake Bay Program Office Fiscal Year 2023 Request for Applications for:

Modeling, Monitoring, and Data Analysis Support for the Chesapeake Bay Program Partnership

ACTION: Request for Applications (RFA)

RFA #: EPA-R3-CBP-23-18

ASSISTANCE LISTING #: 66.466

IMPORTANT DATES

September 15, 2023 Issuance of Request for Applications (RFA) October 30, 2023 Application submission deadline (see Section IV for more information) December 1, 2023 Approximate date for EPA to notify applicants of results December 15, 2023 Approximate date for selected applicant to submit workplan and revised federal cooperative agreement application January 15, 2024 Approximate date of award/Project start date

TABLE OF CONTENTS

I. FUNDING OPPORTUNITY DESCRIPTION

II. AWARD INFORMATION

III. ELIGIBILITY INFORMATION

IV. APPLICATION AND SUBMISSION INFORMATION

V. APPLICATION REVIEW INFORMATION

VI. AWARD ADMINISTRATION INFORMATION

VII. AGENCY CONTACTS

VIII. OTHER INFORMATION

APPENDIX A. APPLICATION FORMAT

APPENDIX B. BUDGET GUIDANCE

FULL TEXT OF ANNOUNCEMENT

I. FUNDING OPPORTUNITY DESCRIPTION

A. Background

1. About the Chesapeake Bay Program The Chesapeake Bay is North America's largest and most biologically diverse estuary. A resource of extraordinary productivity, it is worthy of the highest levels of protection and restoration. Authorized by Clean Water Act (CWA) Section 117, 33 USC Section 1267, the Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) is responsible for supporting the Chesapeake Bay Executive Council (Executive Council) through a number of actions, including the coordination of federal, state, and local efforts to restore and protect living resources and water quality of the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed. CWA Section 117 also authorizes EPA to provide grants to support the goals of the program.

The CBP is a unique regional partnership that has led and directed the restoration of the Chesapeake Bay since 1983. Today, the CBP partners include the states of Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia; the District of Columbia; the Chesapeake Bay Commission (a tri-state legislative body); EPA, representing the federal government The partnership’s work is guided by the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement, which establishes the plan for collaboration across the Bay’s political boundaries and establishes goals and outcomes for the restoration of the Bay, its tributaries, and the lands that surround them.

2. About the CBP Partnership The CBP partnership is guided at the direction of the Executive Council, which, through its leadership, establishes the policy direction for the restoration and protection of the Chesapeake Bay and exerts its leadership to rally public support for the Bay effort and approves directives, agreements, and amendments that set goals and guide policy for Chesapeake Bay restoration. The Executive Council is established by CWA Section 117. To ensure implementation of the Executive Council’s Chesapeake Bay Agreements, the CBP partnership has several committees, teams, workgroups comprised of participating partners.

The Principals' Staff Committee (PSC) acts as the senior policy advisors to the Executive Council, accepting items for their consideration and approval and setting agendas for Executive Council meetings. The PSC translates the restoration vision by setting policy and implementing actions on behalf of the Executive Council. The PSC also provides policy and program direction to the Management Board.

The Management Board provides strategic planning, priority setting, and operational guidance through implementation of a comprehensive, coordinated, accountable implementation strategy for the CBP. It directs and coordinates all of the goal teams and workgroups under it.

The Goal Implementation Teams (GITs) include federal and non-federal experts from throughout the watershed. Thus, academic experts, advocacy organizations, and others become active members of the broad restoration partnership.

Pursuant to CWA Section 117(b)(2), 33 USC Section 1267(b)(2), the Chesapeake Bay Program Office (CBPO) is the office within EPA charged with providing support to the Executive Council in the https://www.chesapeakebay.net/what/what-guides-us/watershed-agreement https://www.chesapeakebay.net/who/group/principals-staff-committee https://www.chesapeakebay.net/who/group/management-board https://www.chesapeakebay.net/who/how-we-are-organized restoration and protection of the Chesapeake Bay. The CBPO and the CBP, mentioned above, are two distinct entities.

For additional background information on the CBP structure, achievements, and commitments, see the CBP partnership’s website located at http://www.chesapeakebay.net/.

3. Chesapeake Bay Total Maximum Daily Load and Watershed Implementation Plans EPA has established the Chesapeake Bay Total Maximum Daily Load (Bay TMDL), a historic and comprehensive “pollution diet” to facilitate implementation of actions to restore clean water to the Chesapeake Bay and the watershed’s streams, creeks and rivers.

The Bay TMDL – the largest ever developed by EPA – identifies the levels of nitrogen, phosphorus and sediment across Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia and the District of Columbia that are necessary to meet applicable state water quality standards in the Chesapeake Bay, its tidal tributaries, and embayments. These pollutant limits were further divided by each of the seven Chesapeake Bay watershed jurisdictions and major river basins based on state-of-the-art modeling tools, extensive monitoring data, peer-reviewed science and close interaction with jurisdictional partners.

Watershed Implementation Plans (WIPs) are plans for how each of the Bay jurisdictions, in partnership with federal and local governments, will achieve their respective Bay TMDL allocations and planning targets. The Phase I WIPs were developed in 2010 by the jurisdictions to inform the 2010 Bay TMDL wasteload and load allocations. The Phase II WIPs were developed in 2012 by the jurisdictions to meet nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment planning targets based on updated information generated through the Partnership’s Phase 5.3.2 Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model. The goal of the Chesapeake Bay TMDL and supporting jurisdictional WIP process is to implement by 2025 all nutrient and sediment pollutant load reduction practices needed to fully restore water quality in the Chesapeake Bay and its tidal rivers.

Through the Bay TMDL Midpoint Assessment, the CBP partnership updated and reviewed the latest science, data, models, and decision support tools to be used in estimating progress in nutrient and sediment pollutant load reductions. Phase III WIPs were developed by jurisdictions based on the results of the Midpoint Assessment, the Phase III WIP planning targets, and new information provided by the Phase 6 Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model and related updates of the Chesapeake Bay Airshed Models and the Chesapeake Water Quality and Sediment Transport Model. The Phase III WIPs provide information on actions the seven watershed jurisdictions intend to implement between 2019 and 2025 to meet their respective Bay TMDL goals.

4. CBP Environmental Models Models of the Chesapeake Bay’s airshed, watershed, estuary, and living resources have been developed by the partners and linked together over the past 30 years. The CBP partnership’s suite of models assists in understanding the important processes affecting the health of the watershed and the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem. These modeling tools provide the CBP partners with an understanding of the effect of various control strategies on pollutant levels and the level of nutrient and sediment load reductions needed to restore the Chesapeake Bay and achieve the applicable water quality standards for dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll-a, underwater bay grasses and water clarity. By quantifying the management actions necessary to restore Chesapeake Bay habitats and the living resources dependent on those habitats, these integrated CBP partnership models provide guidance to environmental managers and citizens on where the most cost-effective reductions can be made so that controls are equitable and broadly supported.

http://www.chesapeakebay.net/

Through the application of airshed, watershed, estuarine, and living resource modeling activities, the CBP partnership’s state and local jurisdictional partners gain access to information that is used directly in decision-making for Chesapeake Bay environmental restoration efforts. Chesapeake Bay environmental models are developed, calibrated, verified, and applied through an expanding cooperative network of state, federal, regional, and local agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and academic institutional partners. These partnership models help set the pace and direction of Chesapeake Bay restoration by providing information on water quality and biological resource responses to different management actions.

The Modeling Workgroup is charged with the responsibility to provide state-of-the-art decision-support modeling tools to the CBP partnership that are developed and applied through community and participatory principles. Modeling Workgroup members are comprised of scientists, engineers, and technical managers from throughout the Chesapeake Bay Partnership.

The responsible planning and management of resources to provide the best available decision-support modeling tools requires the Modeling Workgroup members and participants to adhere to the core values of:

• Integration - Integration of the most recent science and knowledge in air, watershed, and coastal waters to support ecosystem modeling for restoration decision-making.

• Innovation - Embracing creativity and encouraging improvement in the development and support of transparent and robust modeling tools.

• Independence – Making modeling decisions based on the best available evidence and using the most appropriate methods to produce, run, and interpret models, independent of policy considerations.

• Inclusiveness - Commitment to an open and transparent process and the engagement of relevant partners that results in strengthening the Partnership’s decision-making tools.

One of the key modeling tools in this effort is the Chesapeake Assessment Scenario Tool (CAST), which is a web-based tool that provides estimates of the nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment load reductions achieved by different combinations of BMPs in a particular geographical area. CAST also includes information on the cost of implementing various BMPs so that users can select the most cost-effective practices to reduce pollutant loads.

Climate change was recognized in the historic 2010 TMDL as a challenge to be addressed by the Chesapeake 2017 Midpoint Assessment (2017 MPA). During the 2017 MPA, a comprehensive airshed, watershed and estuarine modeling system was successfully developed and applied to address climate change conditions over the 30 years between the base year (1995) and 2025. Consequently, nutrient and sediment target loads were lowered to offset the nonachievement of the Chesapeake’s living-resource-based water quality standards that resulted from the 30 years of climate change.

The CBP leadership of the PSC and the EC have now directed the CBP Partnership to prepare to address 2035 climate change conditions with a suite of updated airshed, watershed, and estuarine models to be completed and fully operational in December 2025, reviewed by the CBP in 2026, and applied to CBP management issues in 2027.

Disolved oxygen (DO), chlorophyll, submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV), and water clarity are included as TMDL water quality criteria in Delaware’s, the District of Columbia’s, Maryland’s, and Virginia’s water https://www.chesapeakebay.net/who/group/modeling-team https://cast.chesapeakebay.net/About quality standard regulations. Because the four jurisdictions must achieve each of these water quality criteria to delist their Bay tidal waters, currently listed as impaired, the CBP Partnership’s Modeling Workgroup recommended that a state-of-the-science hydrodynamic model, based on an unstructured SCHISM model grid, be coupled to the ICM water quality code. The ICM code has been continually refined and improved by the CBP for three decades and includes key water quality and living resource processes.

5. CBP Monitoring Program The 2014 Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement required additional monitoring, modeling, and analysis to help decision-makers effectively achieve goals and associated outcomes. CBP science activities are coordinated through the Scientific, Technical Assessment, and Reporting (STAR) Team. To address the needs of the Watershed Agreement, STAR is evolving to have more of an ecosystem-based science mission. In addition to modeling, the STAR Team serves the CBP as a science collaboration effort to include water quality monitoring functions.

STAR manages CBP-funded monitoring networks and coordinates with additional science providers to utilize networks to address the 2014 Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement. It ensures information quality, management, and access. The STAR Team updates and delivers the status and trends (indicators) of ecosystem conditions and explains ecosystem conditions and changes. Results of its work are synthesized and communicated to support the CBP decision framework being used by the goal teams to develop and implement management strategies for future watershed agreements.

The CBP monitoring programs include the nontidal nutrient and sediment network, tidal water-quality monitoring network, submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) network, tidal benthic monitoring network, and Citizen Science monitoring network. The Bay Program recognizes that monitoring is foundational to the CBP’s ability to assess progress toward its goals and outcomes and to utilize adaptive-management principles.

B. Scope of Work

This RFA is seeking insightful, expert, and cost-effective applications from eligible applicants to provide the Chesapeake Bay Program’s non-federal partners with technical analysis and programmatic evaluation support related to water quality modeling and monitoring and spatial systems to manage, analyze, and map environmental data. The project assists the partners in meeting their restoration and protection goals and in increasing the transfer of scientific understanding to the CBP modeling, monitoring, and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) activities.

Project funding will support scientific staff members who will apply various modeling, data analyses, and GIS activities to develop and communicate information used in decision making. The project includes six activities for the Chesapeake Bay Program: 1) Nonpoint Source Data Analysis, 2) Watershed Modeling, 3) Tidal Monitoring Data Analysis, 4) Nontidal Monitoring Data Analysis, 5) Geographic Information Systems Analysis, and 6) Model Operations Support.

The work will primarily support the CBP partnership’s STAR Team, the Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) and their workgroups made up of state, regional, local, and non-public stakeholders, building the institutional and programmatic capacity for accelerated implementation of the most cost-effective targeted BMPs and other nutrient and sediment reduction actions for the protection and restoration of the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed.

https://www.chesapeakebay.net/who/group/scientific-and-technical-analysis-and-reporting

The recipient will support modeling, monitoring, and GIS programs needed to explain and communicate the health of and changes in the Chesapeake Bay ecosystem. Through STAR and the WQGIT, the successful applicant will support the Chesapeake Bay Program Goal Teams and helps decision-makers effectively achieve goals and associated outcomes related to water quality, the Chesapeake Bay TMDL, and WIPs as well as other ecosystem-based science missions associated with the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement.

While the CBP partnership is comprised of federal and non-federal organizations, any activities funded under this RFA will not directly benefit the federal partners. The recipient of the cooperative agreement awarded under this RFA may work directly with federal agencies, but the nature of that work will result only in direct, significant benefits to the non-federal agencies, partners, and the general public. Any indirect and incidental benefits to EPA are not the purpose of the RFA. The non-federal partners of the CBP will provide programmatic direction to the successful applicant through the WQGIT, STAR, and other GITs.

EPA plans to award one six-year cooperative agreement under this RFA. The total estimated funding under this solicitation is approximately $5,280,000 overall, with an estimated $880,000 available for the first year and each year thereafter. However, there is no guarantee of funding throughout this period or beyond. The table below summarizes the estimated funding available for each activity throughout the expected six-year project period.1

Activity Estimated

Funding Per Year Total Estimated

Funding for Six Years Activity 1: CBP Agricultural Watershed Fertilizer Manure Data Scientist

$150,000 $900,000

Activity 2: CBP Watershed Modeler $145,000 $870,000 Activity 3: CBP Tidal Monitoring Data Analyst $110,000 $660,000 Activity 4: CBP Nontidal Monitoring Data Analyst $145,000 $870,000 Activity 5: CBP Geographic Information Systems Analyst $158,000 $948,000 Activity 6: CBP Model Operations Scientist $172,000 $1,032,000

TOTAL $880,000 $5,280,000

To support these activities, the selected organization may request that staff, for matters of efficiency, be located at the U.S. EPA CBPO located in Annapolis, Maryland. Office space, valued at $9,400 per person per year, may be provided by EPA as in-kind assistance under the cooperative agreement, if requested, and is considered matchable funding. The EPA in-kind funding would be in addition to the $5,280,000 referenced above.

If your organization has an interest and the experience to accomplish the activities described below and is eligible to receive a federal assistance agreement as described in Section III of this announcement, we encourage you to apply. Each eligible application will be evaluated using the criteria described in Section V. The activities are multi-year projects (up to six years), and the application should have a work plan and budget for the first year and a projected work plan and estimated budget detail for Years 2-6.

1 The funding levels detailed in the chart are intended as estimates only based on the scope of work for each activity. Recipients may propose different funding levels for each activity so long as the application addresses each activity, and the overall funding request does not exceed the maximum limit of $5,280,000 (excluding EPA in-kind).

Applicants must address each Activity below in their application to be considered eligible.

Activity 1: CBP Agricultural Watershed Fertilizer Manure Data Scientist Estimated Available Funding: $900,000 ($150,000 per year for six years)

The recipient will work closely with the CBP agricultural team to analyze data related to fertilizer and manure management practices in agricultural watersheds. The data scientist will use analytical skills and knowledge of statistical modeling to identify trends and make recommendations to improve fertilizer and manure management practices. The ideal candidate has a strong background in agricultural science, statistical analysis, and data visualization.

The work involves the use of several types of databases, programming languages, analysis software, and data management tools. Assurances of the quality of the data and its management are embedded in the activity’s tasks with clear documentation of management processes, QA/QC procedures, and findings from data analyses. In addition, there are expectations that stakeholders have full and open access to the information for their use.

Work performed under this activity will contribute to enhanced multi-partner, consensus-based environmental decision-making in the watershed through the integrated analysis of nonpoint source data used for planning more cost-effective restoration strategies as well as measuring progress toward achieving Chesapeake Bay Program goals.

The following are tasks expected to be included in the workplan. Applicants should address how they will conduct these tasks or describe in detail alternative approaches to providing the requested support.

• Develop and maintain databases related to fertilizer and manure management practices in agricultural watersheds.

• Analyze data using statistical modeling and machine-learning techniques to identify trends and patterns in fertilizer and manure management practices.

• Work with the agricultural team to make recommendations to improve fertilizer and manure management practices based on data analysis.

• Communicate findings to stakeholders, including farmers, policymakers, and the public, through reports, presentations, and other channels.

• Collaborate with other data scientists, engineers, and researchers to develop and implement data-driven solutions to improve agricultural practices.

Activity 2: CBP Watershed Modeler Estimated Available Funding: $870,000 ($145,000 per year for six years)

The recipient will oversee the development of next-generation watershed models including their calibration, validation, and management application. In addition to modeling, the activity involves 1) the development of quantitative analysis frameworks to help understand the impacts of changing watershed conditions on water quality as estimated by both models and the CBP nontidal monitoring network, and 2) the understanding and improvement of assessments of water quality criteria in Chesapeake Bay tidal waters, which is the endpoint measure of the effect of restoration activities.

Information from the model predictions and monitoring must be interpreted and used to clearly communicate environmental management implications to policymaker and stakeholder audiences through a variety of media and mechanisms.

The work involves the use of several types of databases, programming languages, and analysis software. Assurances of the quality of the data and its management are embedded in the activity’s tasks with clear documentation of methods, QA/QC procedures, and findings from model scenarios and data analysis. In addition, there are expectations that stakeholders have full and open access to the information for their use.

Work performed under this activity will contribute to enhanced multi-partner, consensus-based environmental decision-making in the watershed through understanding trends in water quality in the nontidal regions of the watershed as well linked-model applications. Both are used, in part, for planning more cost-effective restoration strategies as well as measuring progress toward achieving Chesapeake Bay Program goals.

will conduct these tasks or describe in detail alternative approaches to providing the requested support.

• Develop next-generation watershed models to improve Bay Program estimates of the influence of watershed conditions and BMPs on nutrient and sediment load changes.

o The work specifically includes the continued development of a parsimonious Bayesian model of the Chesapeake Bay watershed used to explore drivers of spatial variability in nutrient loads and as a statistical spatial calibration tool to inform the Phase 7 version of the CBP Watershed Model.

o Develop a quantitative analysis framework to explore, understand, and ultimately communicate to managers and CBP stakeholders the differences in long- and short-term trends in constituent loads between CAST predictions and WRTDS estimates. The ultimate goal of this analysis is to inform and guide watershed model improvements.

• Analyze nutrient and sediment load trends using data from the nontidal monitoring network to inform calibration of a Bayesian watershed model.

• Advance the development of tools to improve assessments of water quality criteria in Chesapeake Bay tidal waters.

o Collaborate with CBP stakeholders and CBP office staff to develop a leading-edge 4-D interpolation tool to estimate dissolved oxygen in the Bay and improve criteria assessment.

• Contribute to the advancement of models used to forecast seasonal hypoxia in the Chesapeake Bay each year.

• Operate models and databases using several operating systems, program languages, analysis software, and standard visualization packages.

o Conduct and document data analyses and visualization using R, Stan, and ArcGIS.

o Contribute to the transition of CBP Bayesian watershed model code to operation on the

Amazon Web Services cloud.

• Assist states, the District of Columbia, and other stakeholder groups with the development of improved numeric measures of progress toward meeting TMDL goals using data from the nontidal monitored network and models.

• Contribute to CBP efforts centered on measuring the effects of climate change on watershed and tidal bay conditions.

• Provide support to the CBP partners through the preparation of reports, program materials, and scenario and model documentation. Disseminate and explain information and study findings through presentations at CBP GIT and workgroup meetings, technical/scientific conferences, and other appropriate venues.

• Contribute to the full documentation of the Phase 7 version of the CBP Watershed Model.

Activity 3: CBP Tidal Monitoring Data Analyst Estimated Available Funding: $660,000 ($110,000 per year for six years)

This activity involves the development of quantitative analysis frameworks to enhance criteria assessment capabilities in Chesapeake Bay tidal waters and the response of tidal water quality to changes in the watershed, including restoration activities. Information about the status and trends in monitored tidal water quality must be interpreted and used to clearly communicate environmental management implications to policymaker and stakeholder audiences through a variety of media and mechanisms.

The work involves the use of several types of databases, programming languages, and analysis software for testing the predictive abilities of different approaches. Assurances of the quality of the data and its management are embedded in the activity’s tasks with clear documentation of methods, QA/QC procedures, and findings from data analyses. In addition, there are expectations that stakeholders have full and open access to the information for their use.

Work performed under this activity will contribute to enhanced multi-partner, consensus-based environmental decision-making in the watershed through the integrated analysis of tidal water quality data. The information is used, in part, for planning more cost-effective restoration strategies as well as measuring progress toward achieving Chesapeake Bay Program goals.

will conduct these tasks or describe in detail alternative approaches to providing the requested support.

• Oversee the development of new spatial analytical techniques for water quality data analysis.

o Serve as the technical lead on prototype applications of a space-time dissolved oxygen interpolator tool (i.e., 4D interpolator) to ultimately enhance criteria assessment capabilities in the tidal waters.

• Establish and lead monthly meetings of a 4D interpolator work group to move development forward.

• Develop and modify computer code written in Fortran and SAS programming languages for automating and documenting regular analytical procedures.

o Develop code for a prototype 4D interpolator, testing model options, variables additions, and predictive abilities of the approach.

• Work with members of STAR, the Tidal Monitoring and Assessment Workgroup (TMAW), and the Nontidal Network Workgroup (NTNWG) to better understand water quality patterns and trends in the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed.

o Identify integrated analytical efforts to evaluate past and present estuarine water quality and lower trophic level responses to changes in flow, pollutant inputs, population, land uses and other natural anthropogenic factors.

o Coordinate efforts to simulate future responses within the estuarine ecosystem based on past and planned implementation actions. Possible tasks include:

Examinations of nutrient limitation changes in Chesapeake Bay tributaries.

Documenting the benefits of synthesis efforts focused on SAV response to management actions.

Modeling climate impacts on SAV.

• Provide scientific synthesis support for CBP management issues including:

o Updates to STAR Logic and Action Plan and Science Needs lists.

o Lead sessions of the Chesapeake Community Research Symposiums, which bring together tidal and nontidal researchers to share ideas and move scientistic synthesis forward.

• In collaboration with members of the TMAW, investigate procedures for quantifying and communicating status and trends in water quality in the Bay and tidal tributaries and develop plans for updating these deliverables and enhancing their utility with respect to assessing and communicating the effectiveness of management actions.

o Compile and assure the quality of deliverables from CBP partners to generate bay-wide tidal water quality trend results for annual analyses.

o Report tidal trend results each year to STAR and the Integrated Trends Analysis Team

(ITAT).

o Incorporate tidal water quality trend results for specific tidal stations into annual trend products.

• Provide technical support to STAR and TMAW including scheduling meetings and work sessions, setting agendas, developing annual work plans, summarizing and tracking follow-up responses to workgroup actions and decisions, and identifying key issues for resolution by the workgroups.

• Provide technical assistance to CBP GITs by identifying and developing analytical syntheses that effectively communicate the status and trends of environmental conditions in the Bay and tidal tributaries.

o Work includes the development of and updates to CBP Tributary Summaries.

o Provide detailed tributary trend information to CBP stakeholders when needed.

Activity 4: CBP Nontidal Monitoring Data Analyst Estimated Available Funding: $870,000 ($145,000 per year for six years)

This activity involves the development of quantitative analysis frameworks to better understand riverine water quality trends and patterns of tidal water quality standards attainment. This includes assessments of the effects of nutrient limitation in the Chesapeake Bay tributaries. All tasks under the activity improve the understanding of factors affecting changes in tidal and nontidal water quality, including changes in watershed conditions and restoration efforts. Information about the status and trends in water quality must be interpreted and used to clearly communicate environmental management implications to policy and stakeholder audiences through a variety of media and mechanisms.

https://cast.chesapeakebay.net/Home/TMDLTracking#tributaryRptsSection

The work involves the use of several types of databases, programming languages, and analysis software for testing the predictive abilities of different approaches. Assurances of the quality of the data and its management are embedded in the activity’s tasks with clear documentation of methods, QA/QC procedures, and findings from data analyses. In addition, there are expectations that stakeholders have full and open access to the information for their use.

Work performed under this activity will contribute to enhanced multi-partner, consensus-based environmental decision-making in the watershed through the integrated analysis of water quality data from linked-model applications. The information is used, in part, for planning more cost-effective restoration strategies as well as measuring progress toward achieving Chesapeake Bay Program goals.

will conduct these tasks or describe in detail alternative approaches to providing the requested support.

• Coordinate and develop new analytical and visualization techniques to interpret data generated through basin-wide monitoring programs and compare the results to measures of restoration.

o Explore water quality standards attainment patterns of tidal segments using new metrics such as attainment buffer and attainment deficit – visualizing and communicating attainment results using R Shiny APPs.

o Lead efforts to develop a nontidal TMDL indicator using monitoring and modeling information to inform the progress of reduction of nitrogen and phosphorus from the Bay watershed.

• Collaborate with partners to obtain information on factors affecting changes in water resources’ health; evaluate past and present watershed water quality and biological resource responses to changes in flow, pollutant inputs, population, land uses and other natural or anthropogenic factors.

o Collaborate with scientists at USGS to develop an approach for quantifying riverine water quality trends under different flow conditions.

o Work toward a better understanding of nutrient limitation in the Bay’s major tributaries using the latest monitoring data and statistical tools.

o Use statistical approaches (i.e., clustering & classification) to understand regional patterns and drivers of total phosphorus variability in the Chesapeake nontidal watershed.

• Assess the effectiveness of management actions and changes in watershed conditions on long-and short-term observed responses within the Chesapeake Bay watershed ecosystem.

o Update basin summary reports for 12 Chesapeake Bay tidal tributaries using newly available data sets.

o Integrate data from CBP partners to update water quality indicators for Chesapeake

Bay restoration for 1) nitrogen, phosphorus, and suspended solids loads to the Bay and

2) water quality standards criteria attainment. Communicate and publish findings through the Chesapeake Progress website.

• Work with partners to maintain the continuity and stewardship of the current CBP nontidal water quality monitoring networks. Assist with efforts to continue enhancements to the network through the coordination of existing monitoring, prioritizing locations for new stations, and engaging non-traditional monitoring groups’ participation in the network, including local water quality monitoring projects.

https://cast.chesapeakebay.net/Home/TMDLTracking#tributaryRptsSection https://www.chesapeakeprogress.com/

• Prioritize the management issues for scientific synthesis and lead efforts to engage more academics and other partners to participate in better understanding trends in water quality and what affects those trends. Prepare reports, program materials, and documentation for environmental indicators.

• Educate stakeholders and other interested parties about the status and trends in water qualtiy through publications and clear public presentations. Disseminate and explain information and study findings through presentations at CBP GIT and workgroup meetings, technical/scientific conferences, and other appropriate venues.

• Provide technical support to STAR and its workgroups, including educating members on partner’’ subjects of interest, summarizing and tracking follow-up responses to GIT and workgroup actions and decisions, developing annual work plans, and identifying key issues for resolution by the groups. Relevant workgroups and teams include the following:

o Climate Resiliency Workgroup o Criteria Assessment Protocol Workgroup o Integrated Monitoring Networks Workgroup o Nontidal Network Workgroup o Integrated Trends Analysis Team o Modeling Workgroup o Status and Trends Workgroup o Tidal Trends Analysis Team

Activity 5: CBP Geographic Information Systems Analyst Estimated Available Funding: $948,000 ($158,000 per year for six years)

Chesapeake Bay Program restoration goals and measures of success require sound data analysis and management including quality geo-spatial mapping and its interpretation. Desktop and web-based systems that integrate geographical data for watershed and estuarine ecosystems with other environmental information help to clearly communicate environmental management implications to policy and stakeholder audiences. This activity ensures partners have direct access to the geographic data and information needed to support restoration and protection actions.

The work involves the use of Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI)-based GIS software to assess changes in pollutant loads to the Chesapeake Bay, the degree of attainment of water quality criteria in tidal waters as well as a host of other measures related to watershed conditions and targeting restoration activities. Easy access to geographic mapping helps partners visualize areas of concern and success.

Assurances of the quality of the data and its management are embedded in the activity’s tasks with clear documentation of methods, QA/QC procedures, and findings from data analyses. In addition, there are expectations that stakeholders have full and open access to the information for their use.

Work performed under this activity will contribute to enhanced multi-partner, consensus-based environmental decision-making in the watershed through the integrated analysis of geographic data.

The information is used, in part, for planning more cost-effective restoration strategies as well as measuring progress toward achieving Chesapeake Bay Program goals.

will conduct these tasks or describe in detail alternative approaches to providing the requested support.

• Analyze, manage, and map geo-spatial data using ESRI-based GIS software, particularly

ArcGIS, so that complex environmental and ecosystem process data can be understood – and provide GIS expertise to CBP partners. Projects may include the following:

o Assessment of water quality criteria in the tidal Chesapeake Bay.

o Measurements of nutrient and sediment load changes.

o Targeting of habitat restoration for species of concern.

o Compilations of seamless watershed-wide derived soils data.

o The development of a leading-edge 4-D interpolation tool to estimate dissolved oxygen in the Bay and improve criteria assessment.

o The addition of USGS Science Base data to the CBP Open Data Portal, a collaboration with the USGS.

o Computations to highlight the hardening status of shorelines of the Chesapeake Bay shoreline in support of the CBP’s Fish Habitat Action Team and Forage Action Team.

o Collaborations with the modeling team including the development of 3-D visualizations of the estuary.

o Updating legislative district maps based on new redistricting.

• Aid in the development of Bay Program environmental indicators related to the geographic presentation of the information in the Chesapeake Progress website.

o Update SAV Indicator, Oyster Indicator, and Public Access Indicator map services.

• Integrate geographic data and maps more fully into CBP web sites to provide more of a geographic context. This includes the functionality links on embedded maps.

• Publish maps and data more effectively on CBP web sites for viewing and downloading using CBP map publishing tools. Data layers could include the following:

o Most Effective Basin layers to the Open Data Portal.

o Disadvantaged Communities within the Most Effective Basin layers to the Open Data

Portal.

o Maintaining the Open Data Portal Catalog for inventory.

o Collaborating with Blue Raster on building an ArcGIS Hub Site for accessing data, tools, and documents.

• Help train non-Federal Bay Program staff and partners in ArcGIS software use.

• Represent the Bay Program at both internal and external meetings. Disseminate and explain information through presentations at CBP GIT and workgroup meetings, technical/scientific conferences, and other appropriate venues.

• Coordinate and produce technical documentation, reports, data dictionaries, and metadata, explaining analysis methods used to develop data and conduct geospatial analyses.

• Coordinate with EPA to make CBP geospatial metadata accessible through the EPA Geodata Gateway.

Activity 6: CBP Model Operations Scientist Estimated Available Funding: $1,032,000 ($172,000 per year for six years)

This activity entails the development of next-generation models for assessing tidal water quality and sediment transport, including their calibration, validation, and management application. Included among the tasks are assessments of the effects of climate change and the effects on water quality criteria attainment. The CBP Model Operations Scientist supports partner organizations by providing a wealth of information on tidal water parameters with interpretations of cause-and-effect relationships centered on water quality and living resources in the estuary. Information from the model predictions and monitoring must be interpreted and used to clearly communicate environmental management implications to policymaker and stakeholder audiences through a variety of media and mechanisms.

The work involves the use of several types of programming languages, databases, software for analysis and visualization, and supporting estuary models systems on the cloud and super computers.

Assurances of the quality of the data and its management are embedded in the activity’s tasks with clear documentation of methods, QA/QC procedures, and findings from model scenarios and data analysis. In addition, there are expectations that stakeholders have full and open access to the information for their use.

Work performed under this activity will contribute to enhanced multi-partner, consensus-based environmental decision-making through understanding the effects of changing watershed and estuary conditions on tidal water quality and sediment transport. These cause-and-effect relationships are used, in part, for planning more cost-effective restoration strategies as well as measuring progress toward achieving Chesapeake Bay Program goals.

will conduct these tasks or describe in detail alternative approaches to providing the requested support.

• Support the development and operation of CBP Water Quality and Sediment Transport Models (WQSTM) Ch3D-ICM and SCHISM-ICM. Applications of the estuarine model could include the following:

o Assessments of the effects of climate change, including the effects on water quality criteria attainment.

o Refinements to the estuarine model to simulate the effects of losses of tidal wetlands because of climate change conditions.

o Refinements to the model to simulate SAV biogeochemical dynamics and the impact on water quality.

o Coupling between SCHISM and ICM code so that the coupled system can be operated in distributed parallel mode on the EPA cluster computer systems and the Amazon cloud.

• Support partner organizations in their understanding of the effects of changing environmental conditions in the estuary by providing data and explanations from the CBP models. Typical requests for information include model boundary conditions; SAV analyses; CHAMP (Chesapeake Hypoxia Analysis and Modeling Program); water quality parameters like temperature, salinity, DO, and chlorophyll a; tidal impacts of nutrient fluxes from sediment;

habitat volumes; striped bass populations; and fish habitat. Organizations supported include state agencies and academic institutions.

• Support Bay model applications by 1) developing, adapting, and operating software systems to analyze CBP estuarine model output to address questions of water quality and living resource response to estuarine inputs and 2) creating and enhancing linkages between CBP partnership’s models with other models of the Chesapeake Bay and watershed ecosystems, especially those pertinent to living resource models. Tasks could include the following:

o Water quality criteria attainment assessments based on observations for a rolling three-year period.

o Code development for shallow water and chlorophyll a criteria assessments.

o Algorithm and code development for the effect of nutrient limitation in modeled management scenarios; model selection in R, based on hypoxia volume and nutrient limitation; and benthic algae simulations.

o Creation of graphics using gri, R, GIS, gnuplot, and python to analyze water quality simulations with CH3D, CE-QUAL-ICM and SCHISM.

o Implementation of the SCHISM and FVCOM model systems on the Amazon Cloud and the EPA super computer.

o Development of a method for empirical mode decomposition, spectral analysis, CART analysis, GAM, and tidal harmonic analysis in the Corsica River.

o Applying the SCHISM-ICM model systems to the Corsica and Patuxent rivers.

o Grid generation for a Patuxent and Choptank simulation.

• Provide technical support to CBP partners through the preparation of reports, program materials, scenario and model documentation, and peer-reviewed journal articles. Disseminate and explain information and study findings through presentations at CBP GIT, workgroup, and STAR meetings, technical/scientific conferences, and other appropriate venues including the following:

o Modeling Workgroup o Criteria Assessment Protocol Workgroup o Climate Resiliency Workgroup o Integrated Monitoring Networks Workgroup and the Bay Oxygen Research Group o Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee o Chesapeake Community Modeling Partnership

C. EPA Strategic Plan Linkage & Anticipated Outcomes and Outputs

Pursuant to Section 6a of EPA Order 5700.7A1, “Environmental Results under EPA Assistance Agreements,” EPA must link proposed assistance agreements to the Agency’s Strategic Plan.

1. Linkage to EPA’s Strategic Plan The activities to be funded under this solicitation support the FY 2022-2026 EPA Strategic Plan. Awards made under this solicitation will support Goal 5: Ensure Clean and Safe Water for All Communities, Objective 5.2 Protect and Restore Waterbodies and Watersheds of the Strategic Plan.

EPA Order 5700.7A1 also requires that grant applicants adequately describe environmental outputs and outcomes to be achieved under assistance agreements. Applicants must include specific statements describing the environmental results of the proposed project in terms of well-defined outputs and, to the maximum extent practicable, well-defined outcomes that will demonstrate how the project will contribute to accomplishment of the Activities described above in Section I.B.

2. Outputs The term “output” means an environmental activity, effort, and/or associated work product related to an environmental goal and objective that will be produced or provided over a period of time or by a specified date. Outputs may be quantitative or qualitative but must be measurable during an assistance https://www.epa.gov/grants/epa-order-57007a1-epas-policy-environmental-results-under-epa-assistance-agreements https://www.epa.gov/planandbudget/strategicplan https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2015-03/documents/epa_order_5700_7a1.pdf agreement funding period. Examples of potential outputs under the Scope of Work of this announcement may include but are not limited to the following:

Activity 1 Outputs: CBP Agricultural Watershed Fertilizer Manure Data Scientist

• Develop and maintain databases related to fertilizer and manure management practices for the agricultural sector.

• Analyze data using statistical modeling and machine learning techniques to identify trends and patterns in fertilizer and manure management practices.

• Develop and deliver one or two informational reports and/or presentations to communicate findings to stakeholders.

Activity 2 Outputs: CBP Watershed Modeler

• Develop the next-generation “Phase 7” watershed model to improve Bay Program estimates of the influence of watershed conditions and BMPs on nutrient and sediment load changes.

• Analyze nutrient and sediment load trends using data from the nontidal monitoring network to inform calibration of a Bayesian watershed model.

• Develop and deliver one or two informational presentations at CBP GIT and workgroup meetings and/or technical scientific conferences.

Activity 3 Outputs: CBP Tidal Monitoring Data Analyst

• Oversee the development of new spatial analytical techniques for water quality data analysis.

• Work with members of STAR, the Tidal Monitoring and Assessment Workgroup (TMAW), and the Nontidal Network Workgroup (NTNWG) to better understand water quality patterns and trends in the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed.

• Update yearly deliverables for status and trends in water quality in the Bay and tidal tributaries enhancing their utility with respect to assessing and communicating the effectiveness of management actions.

Activity 4 Outputs: CBP Nontidal Monitoring Data Analyst

• Coordinate and develop new analytical and visualization techniques to interpret data generated through basin-wide monitoring programs and compare the results to measures of restoration.

• Evaluate past and present watershed water quality and biological resource responses to changes in flow, pollutant inputs, population, land uses and other natural or anthropogenic factors.

• Assess the effectiveness of management actions and changes in watershed conditions on long-and short-term observed responses within the Chesapeake Bay watershed ecosystem.

Activity 5 Outputs: CBP Geographic Information Systems Analyst

• Analyze, manage, and map geo-spatial data using ESRI-based GIS software so that complex environmental and ecosystem process data can be understood.

• Aid in the development of Bay Program environmental indicators related to the geographic presentation of the information on Chesapeake Progress.

• Make CBP geospatial metadata accessible through the EPA Geodata Gateway.

Activity 6 Outputs: CBP Model Operations Scientist

• Support the development and operation of CBP Water Quality and Sediment Transport Models (WQSTM) Ch3D-ICM and SCHISM-ICM.

• Support partner organizations with their understanding of the effects of changing environmental conditions in the estuary by providing data and explanations from the CBP models.

3. Outcomes The term “outcome” means the result, effect, or consequence that will occur from carrying out an environmental program or activity that is related to an…