NCNS1000-15-01532_West_Coast_MBON_SOW_SS_DP_v2_BK_2_(2).docx

STATEMENT OF WORK

DETECTING AND FORECASTING CLIMATE EFFECTS ON SPATIAL PATTERNS OF BIODIVERSITY AND PRODUCTIVITY IN WEST COAST SANCTUARIES: A COLLABORATION WITH THE MARINE BIODIVERSITY OBSERVATIONAL NETWORK (MBON).

I. Introduction/Background

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) recently announced a major effort to establish three Marine Biodiversity Observation Networks (MBON). To support the demonstration and use of MBON sites and to address multiple end-user needs regarding climate-smart initiatives, a 2-year study has been awarded through the National Center of Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) to provide National Marine Sanctuary (NMS) managers with tools to address the ever-increasing threats from climate variability and change. NCCOS scientists and external partners will conduct research and modeling around two National Marine Sanctuaries (NMS) on the US west coast: the Channel Islands NMS (CINMS) in the Santa Barbara Channel (SBC) region and the Monterey Bay NMS (MBNMS) in the Monterey Bay region.

Marine ecosystems of the west coast are facing multiple climate-related threats: large-scale upwelling changes, nutrient enrichment alterations, biodiversity and habitat losses, and increased biological heat/cold stress events. Understanding long-term regional climate patterns and factors contributing to these threats is vital for maintaining healthy, resilient and diverse ocean ecosystems. One key means of analyzing and identifying these threats is small-scale to regional-scale atmospheric circulation. Mid-latitude cyclones, as well as smaller-scale pressure fields affect tidal variability, upwelling, and swell as short-term fluctuations in sea level. Synoptic climatological analysis, which involves the identification of modes of atmospheric circulation or holistic weather conditions, has been used extensively to identify a number of environmental response variables, including hydrologic and marine responses such as chlorophyll levels, water clarity, discharge, short-term sea-level fluctuations, and marine ecosystem thresholds (e.g. cold- snap related animal mortality).

For this study, we require contractual labor to generate synoptic climatological analysis (the identification of modes of atmospheric circulation or holistic weather conditions) to assess the role of several physical atmospheric drivers that influence ocean processes related to upwelling, nutrient availability, light, and ocean temperature. These will then be linked to productivity and biodiversity of coastal kelp forest ecosystems, dominated by the habitat-forming giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera. The results of this research will assist in the development of early detection and warning capability in sentinel site areas and Sanctuaries.

II. Scope of Work

Specific objectives:

1. Phase 1a (September 1, 2015 ̶ August 30, 2016). Create several different atmospheric circulation pattern “calendars” through Self-Organizing Maps (SOMs), one of the most advanced synoptic climatological methods. The several different calendars will each be based on the clustering of a particular variable, including: raw sea-level pressure, spatial anomaly of sea-level pressure, raw 700-mb geopotential height, and seasonal anomaly of 700-mb height. Each of these calendars will be calculated from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset for 1979-2015. Calendars will also be created separately for regional-scale circulation pattern identification as well as local-scale coastal circulation. The contractor will be required to produce these calendars for each day of the calendar year spanning 25 years of North American Regional Reanalysis data, which includes over 9,125 individual calendars for each variable classified. The contractor will be required to develop these calendars at the regional West Coast-wide scale (>500km), and at the sanctuary site- scale (>25km). The information that must be provided in the calendars include: daily pattern anomaly maps at the level of interest (e.g. surface, 700mb) for each calendar day; a pattern designation (classification) for each calendar day and pattern map coordinates.

2. Phase 1b (September 1, 2015 ̶ August 30, 2016). Develop a synoptic climatological assessment of short-term changes in upwelling, nutrient availability, temperature, and productivity for the California Current System (CCS). Each of the calendars developed in Objective 1 will be individually assessed for their utility in understanding short-term changes in CCS parameters. The contractor, under NOAA advisement, will be required to produce specific correlates (pattern associations) with satellite image data of upwelling response. The contractor will be required to develop the assessment, associated correlates, and supporting diagnostics, at the regional West Coast-wide scale (>1,500km), and at the sanctuary site- scale (>100-150km).

3. Phase 2a (September 1, 2016 ̶ August 30, 2017). Synthesize the results in Objective 2 to link large synoptic-scale flow patterns to upwelling indicators derived from reconstructed satellite data sets including SST, chlorophyll, sea surface roughness, and winds. Specifically, empirically link regional/local upwelling conditions and other wind-induced transport mechanisms to circulation-pattern frequency and persistence, allowing us to scale from large-scale ocean and atmospheric climate changes to more localized changes in nutrients, light and temperature, considered important to higher trophic species, including the giant kelp. Relationships will be assessed via autoregressive time-series models that can account for all of the atmospheric calendars developed in Phase 1, along with temporal autocorrelation.

4. Phase 2b (September 1, 2016 ̶ August 30, 2017). . Summarize results of modeling of the relationship between atmospheric patterns and upwelling response in a summary report, and make available the following weather tools (circulation pattern calendars and their diagnostics) for delivery to NOAA/NOS.

III. Technical Requirements:

The contractors will provide technical support via the creation of the synoptic climatological assessments (Objective 1) and with the analysis, interpretation, and write-up (Objectives 2, 3, and 4).

Timeline:

In all timelines referenced in this proposal, project initiation will begin September 1, 2015 and project will conclude August 30, 2017. Thus the project timeline spans 2 years (24 months).

IV. Contractor Requirements Criteria

· Knowledge and experience in synoptic-scale climatological analysis, modeling, identification of extreme climate patterns and threshold events.

· Skilled in statistical analysis of atmospheric characteristics, trends, time series, and preparing data tables for delivery to NOAA.

· Skilled in relating climate extremes, threshold events to ecosystem health issues and coastal resource management.

· Perform Quality Assurance and Quality Control (QA/QC) of all data delivered to NOAA with full documentation of data sources and methods provided in summary report.

VI. Period of Performance

The period of performance begins September 1, 2015 and concludes August 30, 2017.

Phase 1: September 1, 2015 – August 30, 2016 Phase 2: September 1, 2016 – August 30, 2017

VII. Travel

Travel costs for two (2) contractors to attend a group meeting in Santa Barbara, California in September of 2015.

VIII. Deliverable Schedule