NT-20-05Mini-SOW2.doc

Study Title: High Resolution Modeling of the Gulf of Mexico Study Number: NT-20-05 Recipient Agency: Florida State University (FSU) Project Status: New

Project Duration: Three years

Proposed Start Date: 1 September 2020 Project Deliverables: Synthesis report Technical summary

External hard drives containing numerical products

Matching Funds Available: None.

Total Project Cost: $490,000

1. Purpose The Environmental Studies Program (ESP) of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) is offering a cooperative agreement opportunity to conduct research on high resolution modeling of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). The mission of BOEM is to manage the exploration and development of the nation’s offshore resources in a way that appropriately balances economic development, energy independence and environmental protection through oil and gas leases, renewable energy development. The decision-making behind the management of the nation’s offshore resources is supported through environmental reviews and associated studies.

High resolution currents in GOM are needed to conduct oil spill risk analysis (OSRA) (Smith et al., 1982; Ji et al., 2002; Li and Johnson, 2019). The accuracy of the current information, in terms of spatial and time resolution, is critical for the accuracy of the OSRA model results. Understanding the importance of ocean model resolution is also pertinent to analyzing the hydrodynamic and environmental processes in the GOM. The purpose of this Cooperative Agreement is to assist scientists at the Florida State University with the use of pre-existing models to run a multi-year hindcast (re-analysis) of winds and currents in the Gulf of Mexico.

2. BACKGROUND

BOEM needs better and more accurate information on currents and eddy activities in the GOM (BOEM, 2014). This study is on high resolution modeling of the Gulf of Mexico. Results from this study will expand BOEM’s ability to assess oil spill risks in the GOM and improve its ability to estimate oil spill trajectories. The improved currents will enhance the accuracy of OSRA model results and help us understand the impact of spatial resolution on the performance of OSRA model. The output of this study will be directly used in the BOEM OSRA applications.

Circulation in the GOM is dominated by the Loop Current (LC) and by Loop Current eddies (LCEs) that form at irregular multi-month intervals by separation from the LC. Comparatively small cyclonic eddies (CEs) are thought to have a controlling influence on the LCE, including its separation from the LC. Because the CEs are so dynamic and short-lived, lasting only a few weeks, they have proved a challenge to observe and to numerically simulate. The spatial scale of these eddies can be 20 km or less. With such small spatial scale, it is essential to have an ocean model that has sufficient spatial resolution to describe the LC and LCEs with confidence.

Accurate representation of the ocean dynamics in ocean models advecting the oil particles is crucial for simulating of the oil trajectories, since location of mesoscale features largely determines local surface oil transport. This is also important for understanding ecological connectivity, adaptability, and changes of critical deep communities that are commonly found in regions with substantial small-scale topographic variability.

3. OBJECTIVES

The overall objective of this study is to improve our understanding of the multi-scale variations of physical processes (wind, current, and wave) in the Gulf of Mexico: interannual, seasonal and intra-seasonal scales. These ocean simulations shall reproduce, with the highest skill possible, known oceanographic features of the Gulf of Mexico as reported in the literature from observations.

Specific Objectives:

1) Enhance the HYCOM with a high grid resolution of 1/100o. Upgrade numerical models with new algorithms and faster code. The numerical schemes of the model should also be carefully examined to ensure that the high resolution and the schemes are consistent with each other. Statistical tools should be used for model verification and validation, so that the model performance can be quantified.

2) Examine interactions of the vertical circulation with the sub-surface hydrography and horizontal circulation fields. The goal is to provide information on the potential lateral displacement and sub-surface transport of oil released at depth.

3) Perform a 20-year (2000 – 2020) simulation using a 1/100°-resolution HYCOM configuration of the GOM with accurate bathymetry and enhanced vertical resolution compared to the presently available 1/25°-resolution HYCOM hindcast. Detailed analysis will be conducted to understand that any new physics/dynamics could be better resolved with this high resolution.

4) Deliver the 20-year HYCOM model results to BOEM for OSRA applications in the GOM, including A) Hourly surface currents and sub-surface currents. B) Domain estimated to cover GOM and eastward through the Caribbean.

5) Publish the results of the study as a BOEM OCS Study Report and submit research papers for publication in peer-reviewed scientific journals.

The following variables will be output:

Table 1: List of Model Output Variables

Vertical

Velocity

Vertical Viscosity

Surface

Note: the vertical layers should be 32 or more.

4. TASKS/METHODS/ANALYSES

Tasks:

Collect observational data, develop new model configuration, test the model performance, in Year 1

a) Collect public-accessible observational data in the model domain (e.g., Price et al., 2006);

b) Develop extended model configuration from existing model domain;

c) Test and calibrate the wind, ocean, and wave model performance by comparison with observational data.

d) Reproduce the primary feature of the circulation and eddy patterns in GOM.

After the model performance is satisfied, the 20-year simulation and analysis will be conducted in Year 2.

Once the model simulation is finished, in Year 3

a) Conduct extensive validation of the product;

b) Analyze the product to provide multiple-scale analysis of the sea surface wind, oceanic currents, and waves; calculate the eddy statistics of the GOM.

c) Deliver the product to agencies;

d) Disseminate results in peer-reviewed scientific journals and scientific meetings and conferences.

Methods

HYCOM (Chassignet et al., 2007; Chassignet and Srinivasan, 2015) was developed to improve the vertical coordinate scheme of earlier models. HYCOM is a primitive equation, general circulation model with vertical coordinates that remain isopycnic in the open, stratified ocean. This study will address the need for a new data assimilative ocean model that simulates characteristics of the deep Gulf consistent with new understanding gained from recent observational studies. The model would also provide a predictive tool to assess transport and impacts of oil spills throughout the Gulf from the surface to the seafloor.

REFERENCES

BOEM 2014: Intra-Americas Sea Nowcast/Forecast System Ocean Reanalysis to Support Improvement of Oil-Spill Risk Analysis in the Gulf of Mexico by Multi-Model Approach. https://www.boem.gov/ESPIS/5/5447.pdf Chassignet, E. P., H. E. Hurlburt, O. M. Smedstad, G. R. Halliwell, P. J. Hogan, A. J. Wallcraft, R. Baraille, and R. Bleck, 2007: The HYCOM (Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model) data assimilative system. J. Mar. Syst., 65, 60–83.

Chassignet, E. P., and A. Srinivasan, 2015: Data Assimilative Hindcast for the Gulf of Mexico. BOEM 2015-035:https://www.boem.gov/ESPIS/5/5479.pdf Ji, Z.-G., Johnson, W.R., Marshall, C.F., Rainey, G.B. & Lear, E.M., 2002: Oil-Spill Risk Analysis: Gulf of Mexico Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) Lease Sales, Central Planning Area and Western Planning Area, 2003-2007, and Gulfwide OCS Program, 2003-2042, OCS Report 2002-032, U.S. Department of the Interior, Minerals Management Service: Herndon, VA.

Li, Z.; Johnson, W. An Improved Method to Estimate the Probability of Oil Spill Contact to Environmental Resources in the Gulf of Mexico. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2019, 7, 41. https://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/7/2/41.

Price, J.M., Reed, M., Howard, M.K., Johnson, W.R., Ji, Z.-G., Marshall, C.F., Guinasso, N.L. and Rainey, G.B. 2006. Preliminary assessment of an oil-spill trajectory model using satellite-tracked, oil-spill-simulating drifters. Environmental Modelling & Software, 21(2):258-270.

Smith, R.A., Slack, J.R., Wyant, T. & Lanfear, K J., The Oil Spill Risk Analysis Model of the U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1227. U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey: Reston, VA, 1982.

5. DATA MANAGEMENT

Data management involves two types of data:

1) Observational data

The project will collect all the observational data in the model domain area. Examples include: wind data at weather stations near the coast, data from National Buoy Data Center (temperature, salinity, current, waves), historical MMS/BOEM data, tidal gauge data, satellite remote sensing data (SST, SSHA, wind), among others.

2) Numerical Output

The numerical output from numerical models will be saved as a standard NetCDF format and as a text format that will be determined between the principal investigators (PIs) and the BOEM project officer (PO). Numerical output will be copied to individual disks and delivered to agencies.

No sensitive or personal information will be kept in the project data files. The computers used will be protected by at least one firewall and at least one anti-virus program, both of which are kept current with new software updates and patches. The primary computers are backed up daily on a spare hard drive.

6. LOGISTICS PLAN

Numerical simulation, data analysis and synthesis will be conducted at Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies at the Florida State University, Florida. There will be substantial government involvement as program coordination and supervision, which will be performed by the PO, Dr. Jeff Ji, who is based in Sterling, VA, at the Headquarters of BOEM.

7. SAFETY MANAGEMENT

The tasks of the project are to be conducted at the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, FSU. The FSU campus safety regulations are guides for the office activities.

8. PERMITS/INTERAGENCY COORDINATION

In the event that the project will involve multiple agencies, the PO, Dr. Jeff Ji, will act as an interagency coordinator.

9. LOCAL INVOLVEMENT/TRADITIONAL KNOWLEDGE

Not applicable.

10. PROJECT MANAGEMENT

This project is being proposed as a Cooperative Agreement between the Florida State University and BOEM.

Scientific integrity is vital to Department of the Interior (DOI) activities under which scientific research, data, summaries, syntheses, interpretations, presentations, and/or publications are developed and used. Failure to uphold the highest degree of scientific integrity will result not only in potentially flawed scientific results, interpretations, and applications but will damage DOI’s reputation and ability to uphold the public’s trust. All work performed must comply with the DOI Scientific Integrity Policy posted to http://www.doi.gov, or its equivalent as provided by their organization or State law.

Performance Plan

The Recipient (FSU) will perform the following:

1. Collect all public-accessible observational data in the model domain.

2. Set up the model configuration, test the model performance, and conduct model simulation for 20 years (2000-2020).

3. Validate the model performance against observational data and against published findings from the peer-reviewed literature.

4. Deliver 1/100o resolution atmospheric and ocean model solutions that are to be used to drive BOEM’s OSRA model.

5. Provide visual outputs of oceanographic conditions in the study area (including animations).

6. Submit research papers for publication in peer-reviewed journals and scientific meetings.

7. Acknowledge Federal sponsorship in the draft and final reports by placing the following statement on the title page of both reports:

“Study collaboration and funding were provided by the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Environmental Studies Program, Washington, DC under Cooperative Agreement Number XXXXX.”

The agreement number will be determined and designated at time of award.

BOEM will perform the following:

1. Work closely with FSU to provide general oversight of the project.

2. Participate in testing the initial output of the product in oil spill models to ensure compatibility.

3. Work with FSU PIs on designing potential numerical tests and validation simulations.

4. Perform some synthesis and writing for journal publication(s) of study results.

5. Provide oversight and funding.

Performance Measures

At the end of the study, the PO will assess performance of the program by answering the following questions:

a) Did the study address the question as cited in the cooperative agreement?

b) Were the results obtained from the study useful to BOEM information needs?

c) Were the study results useful to National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) analyses?

d) Did the study results identify new resources or issues relevant to BOEM mission?

e) Were study results obtained within the time frame for intended use?

f) Did study produce peer-reviewed products or use a scientific review board to validate study conclusions?

g) Were the main features of the GOM current systems reproduced as well as their spatial and temporal variability?

Dr. Jeff Ji (PO), a Physical Oceanographer at the Headquarters of BOEM, will participate directly in testing of data used in oil spill models and in quality assurance.

11. PLANNED PRODUCT

The Recipient is responsible for editing and proofreading all material in order to prepare error-free products prior to delivering them to BOEM.

All data files generated by this Cooperative Agreement shall be prepared in digital copies. Text files shall be submitted in a format compatible with MS Word (version used must be approved by PO; numerical output shall be submitted in netcdf format and a text format on a USB external hard drive(s) prior to completion).

Post Award Meeting and Summary A Post Award Meeting will be held via teleconference with BOEM staff and all PIs, not later than one (1) months after award at a time that is mutually agreeable to BOEM and the Recipient. A draft action plan and meeting agenda will be provided one week prior to the meeting to allow for review by all involved. The Recipient will prepare and distribute the meeting minutes and a summary including action items such as suggested changes, modifications, and other items of discussions along with suggested actions or remedies one (1) week after adjourning the meeting. Any agreed upon changes that might affect the agreement are subject to approval in writing by the Contracting Officer (CO).

Quarterly Progress Reports

The Recipient will submit brief quarterly progress reports to the Project Officer (PO), Contracting Officer (CO) and Division of Environmental Sciences Contact (DES) as email or email attachment. The progress reports will include a summary of all work performed during the preceding quarter, including a list of all significant meetings held and overall progress made against the schedule.

Visual Work Documentation:

Visual outputs of oceanographic conditions in the GOM will be provided. The quality of the images shall be at least 300 dpi and shall be suitable for use in printed material and PowerPoint presentations or for duplication. The visual outputs will include animations of oceanographic conditions in the study area. The images and animations shall be delivered to BOEM on CD and/or DVD format, shall be considered part of the final report, and shall be submitted to BOEM per the deliverable schedule for the final report.

Model data

All model output data will be provided to BOEM in netcdf format and a text format on a USB external hard drive(s).

Data Synthesis and report/publication:

1.

Using the acquired data, analytical results, and conclusions from the study, the Recipient shall evaluate the acquired information, interpret the results, and generate tables, and graphics as needed to fulfill the objectives.

2. The Recipient will synthesize the evaluated information into a report concerning the oceanographic conditions in the study area. This report will be submitted to BOEM and contain a unique BOEM numbered identifier.

Journal Publication and/or Oral Presentations

The Recipient shall require of all investigators that all manuscripts intended to be published in journals and all abstracts or summaries prepared for oral and/or poster presentations, based on this study be submitted to BOEM for review and comment prior to submittal to the journal or conference authority. All such publications and oral (and/or poster) presentations shall contain an acknowledgement of support from BOEM under this Cooperative Agreement that reads, “Study collaboration and funding were provided by the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Environmental Studies Program, Washington, DC under Agreement Number XXXXX.”

The agreement number will be determined and designated at time of award.

An acknowledgement page with the above statement shall be incorporated into the PowerPoint slides for oral presentations. Publication of scientific results in peer-reviewed journals is strongly encouraged. PowerPoint and poster presentations shall include BOEM’s logo that the Project Officer will provide upon request by the Recipient.

DELIVERABLES, DISTRIBUTION, AND DUE DATES

The Recipient will deliver the 20-year HYCOM model results to BOEM for OSRA applications in the GOM, including A) Hourly surface currents and sub-surface currents. B) Domain estimated to cover GOM and eastward through the Caribbean. The Recipient will also publish the results of the study as a BOEM OCS Study Report and submit research papers for publication in peer-reviewed scientific journals.

More details of the deliverables are summarized in the following table:

and Division of Environmental Sciences Contact (DES) Within Two (2) months post start of Cooperative Agreement.

10 electronic copies and 5 hardcopies of Final Synthesis Report and 5 hardcopies to PO Within thirty (30) days of receipt of PO review comments on the Draft Final Synthesis Report and PO comments on Submitted Journal Publications

Include within 10 electronic copies and 5 hardcopies of Final Synthesis Report and 5 hardcopies to PO Within thirty (30) days of receipt of PO review comments on the Draft Technical Summary or Abstract(s)

Addresses for Deliverables

Project Officer (PO), BOEM

Dr. Jeff Ji

Physical Oceanographer Branch of Physical and Chemical Sciences

Division of Environmental Sciences

BOEM

45600 Woodland Avenue

Sterling, VA 20166

Tel: (703) 787-1145

Fax: (703) 787-1066 jeff.ji@boem.gov DES Contact, BOEM

Dr. Zhen Li Physical Oceanographer

Branch of Physical and Chemical Sciences

Division of Environmental Sciences

BOEM

45600 Woodland Avenue

Sterling, VA 20166

Tel: (703) 787-1721

Fax: (703) 787-1066 zhen.li@boem.gov Chief, DES, BOEM

Chief, Division of Environmental Sciences

U.S. Department of the Interior

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM)

45600 Woodland Road, MS VAM-OEP

Sterling, Virginia 20166

Environmentalstudiesprogram2@boem.gov Contracting Officer (CO) for BOEM

Ms. Joanne Murphy Acquisition Management Division

Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement

45600 Woodland Avenue, VAE-AMD

Sterling, VA 20166

Tel: (703) 787-1024 joanne.murphy@bsee.gov