Draft_Performance_Work_Statement_1.pdf

Performance Work Statement CalSim3 WY21 Simulation Data Extension and Update

March 29, 2022

1.0 Background

The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) and the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) have collaboratively developed a new version of the California Simulation (CalSim) model of the Central Valley Project (CVP) and the State Water Project (SWP) operations, known as CalSim 3. The model simulates monthly water operations for CVP, SWP, and local agencies within the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys for water years 1922-2015.

2.0 Scope

The contractor shall extend the CalSim 3 period of simulation through water year 2021; and update input parameters to better represent existing conditions. Contractor is responsible for all tasks in accordance with this Performance Work Statement (PWS).

3.0 Type of Contract

The Government intends to award a firm fixed price type of contract.

4.0 Period of Performance

The period of performance shall be two years from the date of the execution of the award.

5.0 Place of Performance

The work to be performed under this contract will be performed at the Contractors facility.

6.0 Objectives

The objective of the tasks is to implement important updates to CalSim 3 and get results from study runs which are necessary to conduct planning analyses essential to Reclamation’s mission.

7.0 Task Descriptions

The Scope of Work is divided into 10 sections as follows:

1. Project Management, Meetings, and Coordination

2. Update/Extend Rim Inflows

3. Update/Extend Reservoir Evaporation Rates

4. Update/Extend Closure Terms

5. Update/Extend Miscellaneous Timeseries Input Data

6. Update Land Use

7. Update/Extend and Revise Crop Evapotranspiration Rates

8. Update/Extend CalSimHydro

9. Model Validation

10. Documentation

7.1 - Task 1: Project Management, Meetings, and Coordination The Contractor shall liaise with Reclamation technical staff on a weekly basis during the course of the task order to coordinate tasks, resources and activities, and review progress and schedule. Additional communications shall be required to exchange information for billing and invoicing as needed.

7.1.1 Deliverables and Due Dates:

Deliverables: Summaries of weekly progress meetings. Monthly invoices and progress reports.

Due Date: Performance period of the task order.

7.2 - Task 2: Update/Extend Rim Inflows CalSim 3 represents the hydrology of the foothill and mountainous “rim” watersheds that surround the Central Valley as preprocessed timeseries of boundary inflows derived from observed streamflow records. Data has been developed in a set of Excel workbooks, one for each inflow. There are 122 workbooks for the Sacramento Valley and 95 workbooks for the San Joaquin Valley, each contain monthly unimpaired inflows from October 1921 – September 2015.

Under Task 2, the Contractor shall assist Reclamation technical staff to extend the CalSim 3 input data of unimpaired inflows (acre-feet/month) to include October 2015 – September 2021. The work will comprise of the following steps:

• Revise Excel workbook template to account for the extended data period, including revisions to linear regression macros

• Compile list of available historical gauge data October 2015 – September 2021

• Use automated procedures to download available observed flow and storage data from USGS, DWR, USACE, and Reclamation.

• Update Excel workbooks to include observed data through September 2021, as applicable

• Update reservoir evaporation rates, as applicable (see Task 3)

• Update linear regression relationships and rerun macros, as applicable

Operational data from DWR, USACE, and Reclamation are updated regularly. However, availability of USGS data may lag. Therefore, development of a complete dataset for 2021 may be provisional or based on statistically-based estimates.

The final division of work under Task 2 between Reclamation technical staff and the Contractor is to be determined. For the purposes of this Scope of Work and associated budget, it is assumed that the Contractor shall be responsible for updating 50% of the workbooks and will review and check all workbooks.

The Contractor shall support Reclamation staff and their consultants to detrend the historical unimpaired inflows for the effects of climate change and subsequently impose the effects of current climate change on the detrended historical flows. Support shall be limited to provision of watershed shape files and pour points and other data already developed for CalSim 3.

7.2.1 Deliverables and Due Dates:

• Deliverables: Updated Excel workbooks. HEC-DSS file of historical unimpaired inflow data.

• Due Date: 90 days from the date of award.

7.3 - Task 3: Update/Extend Reservoir Evaporation Rates At model runtime, CalSim 3 dynamically calculates reservoir evaporation based on reservoir elevation-area-capacity tables and input data of monthly reservoir evaporation rates. These evaporation rates have been determined using an empirical temperature-based equation calibrated to pan evaporation data or reservoir evaporation rates published by the agencies who own and operate the reservoirs. Data has been developed in a set of Excel workbooks, one for each reservoir. There are 52 workbooks for the

Sacramento Valley and 36 workbooks for the San Joaquin Valley, each contain monthly evaporation rates from October 1921 – September 2015.

Under Task 3, the Contractor shall extend the CalSim 3 input data for reservoir evaporation rate (inches/month) to include October 2015 – September 2021. The work will comprise of the following steps:

• Obtain Excel workbooks of reservoir evaporation data

• Extend monthly temperature (Tmax and Tmin) and precipitation data from Oregon State

University PRISM website.

• Extend reservoir and/or pan evaporation data from DWR’s CDEC website, Reclamation’s CVO website, US Army Corps of Engineers’ website, or other sources, as available

• Update calibration factors, as appropriate

• Store extended data from updated Excel workbooks in HEC-DSS data file for use with CalSim 3.

7.3.1 Deliverables and Due Dates:

• Deliverables: Updated Excel workbooks. HEC-DSS file of reservoir evaporation rate.

• Due Date: 30 days from the date of award.

7.4 - Task 4: Update/Extend Closure Terms CalSim 3 uses ‘closure terms’ to adjust surface water supplies using historical streamflow data as a reference or control. These terms can be regarded as a bias correction of rim inflows and/or rainfall runoff so that simulated and recent observed streamflow data are more consistent. Data has been developed in a set of Excel workbooks, one for each closure term.

Under Task 4, the Contractor shall extend the CalSim 3 input data of closure terms (thousand ace-feet/month) to include October 2015 – September 2021. The work will comprise of the following steps:

• Extending observed data for streamflows, diversions, reservoir storage regulation, and reservoir evaporation

• Extending simulated data for rainfall runoff based on CalSimHydro output

• Extending simulated data for stream-groundwater interaction based on a regression analysis of simulated data from C2VSim, streamflows, and precipitation

7.4.1 Deliverables and Due Dates:

• Deliverables: Updated Excel workbooks. HEC-DSS file of closure terms.

• Due Date: 90 days from the date of award.

7.5 - Task 5: Update/Extend Miscellaneous Timeseries Input Data The majority of CalSim 3 timeseries input data consist of rim inflows, reservoir evaporation, closure terms, and CalSimHydro output. Other inputs include (approximate number given in parenthesis):

• Inputs based on C2VSim groundwater modeling (329)

• Delta Channel Depletion (27)

• Precipitation (26)

• CDEC unimpaired flows (10)

• Applied water (11)

• Uncategorized (62)

Under Task 5, the Contractor shall work cooperatively with DWR technical staff to update data based on C2VSim modeling and the Delta Channel Depletion model. The Contractor shall be responsible for extending all other timeseries inputs.

7.5.1 Deliverables and Due Dates:

• Deliverables: HEC-DSS file of miscellaneous timeseries data.

• Due Date: 120 days from the date of award.

7.6 - Task 6: Update Land Use Since 1950, DWR has conducted county state-wide land-use surveys to identify irrigated crop acreage.

Urban areas and areas of native vegetation or undeveloped lands are mapped, but not in the same detail as agricultural lands. Each county’s land-use survey was updated approximately every 7 years. In addition, DWR assembles tables of irrigated crop land by Detailed Analysis Unit (DAU) for the entire State. The most recent county land use surveys for the Central Valley date from the 2000s. DAU land use data are available for water years 1998 – 2015. As of 2016, DWR started producing satellite-based land use maps for the entire State. This mapping is required under the 2014 Sustainable Groundwater Management Act.

Satellite-based GIS land use data are available for 2014, 2016, and 2018.

Land use data for CalSim 3 is based on a mix of county land use surveys from the 1990s and 2000s and tabular land use data for years 2004-2013. The GIS-based county land use data are used to spatially distribute the more recent DAU data. The current approach for CalSim 3 may result in significant errors at the local scale of irrigation districts and relies on DAU data that has no spatial component.

Under Task 6, the Contractor shall develop land use data for CalSim 3 based on the most recent available satellite data (2018 or newer). GIS-based tasks will include the following steps:

• Obtain GIS-based satellite land use data (layer 1)

• Obtain GIS-based mosaic of county land use data (layer 2)

• Obtain GIS-based boundaries of CalSim 3 demand units (layer 3)

• Obtain GIS-based boundaries of DWR DAUs (layer 4)

• Undertake a union of above GIS data to infill missing data in layer 1 with data from layer 2 (layer

5)

• Intersect layer 5 with layer 3 to develop land use by demand unit (layer 6)

• Intersect layer 5 with layer 4 to develop land use by DAU (layer 7)

The Contractor shall compare the resulting land use by DAU (layer 7) with DWR’s tabular data as a quantitative check on data consistency.

The Contractor shall use the attribute table from layer 6 to develop land use by CalSim 3 crop and land use category. The Contractor shall develop land use data for two new crop types ‘young orchards’ and ‘double cropping’. Land use data for each demand unit shall be assembled in a format compatible with CalSimHydro.

7.6.1 Deliverables and Due Dates:

• Deliverables: Revised CalSim 3 land use data

• Due Date: 30 days from the date of award.

7.7 - Task 7: Update/Extend and Revise Crop Evapotranspiration (ET) Rates Under this Task, the Contractor shall support Reclamation revise estimates of crop ET for use in CalSimHydro (described below). The revised crop ET estimates will be developed using the ‘ET

Demands’ model which was developed collaboratively by Reclamation, Desert Research Institute (DRI), and the University of Idaho. Output from the ET Demands Model includes daily ET (inches/day) for up to 55 selected crop types developed using the dual crop coefficient method described in FAO-56. Basal crop coefficients are calculated as a function of cumulative growing degree days.

The Contractor shall support Reclamation modify the ET Demands Model to calculate crop ET for each of CalSim 42 Water Budget Areas. The Contractor shall also support Reclamation calibrate crop coefficients to satellite-based measured data obtained from USGS as part of the Open ET Project.

7.7.1 Deliverables and Due Dates:

• Deliverables: Limited to Reclamation Support

• Due Date: 120 days from the date of award.

7.8 - Task 8: Update/Extend CalSimHydro CalSimHydro is a stand-alone preprocessor to CalSim 3 that is used to develop water demand data that are part of the CalSim 3 input data set. CalSimHydro includes a daily rainfall-runoff model and three separate monthly accounting models that simulate water use for non-ponded agricultural crops, rice, and managed wetlands. Key inputs to CalSimHydro include land use, climate data (precipitation), reference crop ET, and potential crop ET.

Under Task 8, the Contractor shall extend all CalSimHydro timeseries data and extend the period of simulation through September 2021.

Daily and monthly precipitation gridded data sets shall be obtained from the PRISM Group at Oregon State University. Daily precipitation data shall be scaled so that it is consistent with the monthly data.

The Contractor shall investigate the feasibility of adding additional crop categories to CalSimHydro.

In a first step, the Contractor shall initially extend the ET data using PRISM monthly temperature (Tmax and Tmin) for the centroid of each of CalSim 3 Water Budget Areas and the Samani empirical ET equation.

In a second step, the Contractor shall revise ET inputs to CalSimHydro using the products of Task 7.

7.8.1 Deliverables and Due Dates:

• Deliverables: Revised CalSimHydro input and output files

• Due Date: 120 days from the date of award.

7.9 - Task 9: Model Validation Under Task 9 the Contractor shall undertake a simulation of CalSim 3 for water years 1922-2021 using the updated input data developed under Tasks 1 through 8. Reclamation shall be responsible for identifying the version of CalSim 3 to be used for this task. The Contractor shall revise code, as necessary, to obtain a ‘clean’ run with no infeasibilities. The Contractor shall review model results for the extended period, water years 2016-2021, by comparing simulated results to observed data and identify areas where model improvements may be necessary. The focus of this review will be the accretions between the foothill reservoirs and the Delta boundary. The Contractor shall update the eight existing Excel validation workbooks to allow quick comparison of simulated and observed monthly data through 2021.

Any model revisions stemming from this review shall be limited to revisions to timeseries input data.

7.9.1 Deliverables and Due Dates:

• Deliverables: CalSim 3 simulation of existing conditions. Updated validation workbooks.

• Due Date: 150 days of date of award.

7.10 - Task 10: Documentation Under this Task the Contractor shall develop a Technical Memorandum in the form of an appendix to the DWR CalSim 3 Hydrology Report describing (a) the extension of time series data through September 2021; (b) update of the land use data; and (c) refinement and extension of crop ET.

7.10.1 Deliverables and Due Dates:

• Deliverables: Technical Memorandum in draft and final versions

• Due Date: Draft document within 150 days from the date of award. Final document within 180 days from date of award.

PERFORMANCE REQUIREMENTS SUMMARY AND QUALITY ASSURANCE

SURVIELLANCE PLAN (QASP)

Performance Requirement Summary (PRS)

Acceptable Quality Level Method of Surveillance

Deduction

Tasks 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 Review Monitoring Plans and Assessment Strategies.

(a) Timeliness:

Recommendations are provided in a timely manner and are submitted by the date required 98% of the time.

Dates will be set within 30 days of award.

(b) Quality:

Collaboration during SAB meetings results in Transfer of information on model improvement.

meaningful

Comparison of the submittal date to the TRRP need date.

100% or periodic COR surveillance.

Contractor does not meet 98% timeliness threshold in “Acceptable Quality Level”

2% deduction to the months invoice.

If it can be remedied state here also.