Core Model Evaluation RFI.pdf

Request for Information (RFI) Core Model Evaluation for Physical Oceanography Applications

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Ocean Service (NOS)

July 2026

Summary On behalf of the Department of Commerce’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Ocean Service (NOS) is conducting market research to understand capabilities related to open-source, community-supported oceanographic models and their current and planned future capabilities. This information may be used to support a formal evaluation to determine an optimal set of physical core model codes and approaches that can meet the NOAA mission; this will help position NOS to incorporate advances in computing infrastructure, data integration, and non-physics-based prediction methodologies over the coming decade.

Disclaimer and Important Notes This RFI is issued solely for information and planning purposes and does not constitute a Solicitation nor a Request for Proposal (RFP) or a commitment for an RFP in the future, and it is not considered to be a commitment by the Government to award a contract.

NOAA is not seeking proposals and will not accept unsolicited proposals. The Government will not pay for any information or administrative cost incurred in response to this announcement. No basis for claim against the Government shall arise as a result from a response to this RFI or Government use of any information provided. Responses to the notice will not be returned.

Only material suitable for internal government distribution shall be submitted. Any proprietary information should be marked accordingly. The Government will not be liable for or suffer consequential damages for improperly identified proprietary information. The U.S. Government will protect all proprietary information received from respondents in accordance with Government regulations, and distribution of any material will be based on a strict need-to-know basis. No classified, confidential, or sensitive information should be included in your response to this RFI. The Government reserves the right to use any information provided by respondents for any purpose deemed necessary and legally appropriate. However, note that the submissions may be subject to review by experts outside of the civil service such as NOAA contractors, each of whom would sign non-disclosure agreements as required.

Background The National Ocean Service (NOS) modeling supports U.S. maritime commerce and coastal communities, which house 42% of the population and generate 48% of the nation's Gross Domestic Product. As coastal conditions continuously change, there is a critical need for accessible, reliable, and accurate predictions of environmental parameters, such as water levels, currents, temperature, and salinity. The NOS Modeling Vision is to deliver a comprehensive suite of nowcasts, forecasts, reanalysis, and decadal/climate-scale projections that empower individuals and communities to make https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/tools/coastal-predictions/ https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/tools/coastal-predictions/ informed decisions across mission areas including safe marine navigation, human health protection, and coastal resilience.

The NOS Modeling Strategy provides a strategic approach to improving the simulation and prediction of coastal and ocean phenomena and for working with community partners across NOAA, the federal government, academia, and the private sector to build and advance models to issue reliable ocean predictions and address the needs of the public.

The three primary focus areas as laid out in the NOS Modeling Strategy are: addressing user needs through sustained engagement, developing and sustaining models via a collaborative community approach, and issuing reliable forecasts through a unified national framework. By fostering a robust Community of Practice and ensuring open access to model code and data, NOS seeks to reduce the time required to develop and deploy innovative operational products while adhering to modern software management principles (NAO 211-118).

The NOS Modeling Implementation Plan (MIP) serves as the roadmap for achieving these strategic goals. The MIP execution is guided by NOAA’s Service Delivery Framework (SDF), which ensures that products are "useful, usable, and used" through a repeatable process of gathering stakeholder feedback and integrating it into the development cycle. Through this unified approach, NOS is working towards consolidation of its existing operational modeling systems to optimize personnel, funding, and HPC resources, and align with the Unified Forecast System (UFS) and other national and international standards. Additionally, NOS is exploring how Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) approaches can complement, enhance, or replace physics-based models, particularly for applications requiring architectures to resolve meter-scale coastal features that are critical for navigation and resilience applications.

Scope NOS currently maintains several physical oceanography applications based on a variety of community-supported core models developed and supported by the external modeling community. As examples, the Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System (CBOFS) was built using the core model called the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), the Salish Sea and Columbia River Operational Forecast System (SSCOFS) uses the core model called the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM), and the Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (STOFS-2D-Global and STOFS-3D-Atlantic) application runs on the Advanced Circulation Model (ADCIRC) and Semi-implicit Cross-scale Hydroscience Integrated System Model (SCHISM) core models. While this diversity allows for supporting the entire NOS mission, it also dilutes resources as multiple software packages need to be supported. This resource dilution impacts human https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/tools/coastal-predictions/NOS-Modeling-Strategy-2023.pdf https://www.noaa.gov/administration/nao-201-118-software-governance-and-public-release-policy https://cdn.oceanservice.noaa.gov/oceanserviceprod/tools/coastal-predictions/NOS-Modeling-Implementation-2024.pdf https://www.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/2022-02/A-Model-of-Service-Delivery-for-the-NOAA-Water-Initiative_FINAL.pdf https://www.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/2022-02/A-Model-of-Service-Delivery-for-the-NOAA-Water-Initiative_FINAL.pdf https://ufs.epic.noaa.gov/ https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/cbofs/cbofs.html https://github.com/myroms/roms https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/sscofs/sscofs.html https://github.com/FVCOM-GitHub/FVCOM https://registry.opendata.aws/noaa-gestofs/ https://registry.opendata.aws/noaa-nos-stofs3d/ https://github.com/adcirc/adcirc https://ccrm.vims.edu/schismweb/ capital, appropriation of funds, High-Performance Computing (HPC) allocations, and software maintenance efficiencies.

The scope of this effort centers on a formal evaluation of physical oceanography models.

There is a critical need for NOS to evaluate and select an optimal set of core community model codes that can:

● Holistically meet NOS mission and/or modeling requirements (e.g., safe navigation, coastal resilience, etc.),

● Position NOS to better incorporate advances in computing infrastructure (e.g., HPC, cloud, graphics processing unit (GPU) architecture, etc.),

● Leverage non-physics-based prediction methodologies like AI/ML, and

● Integrate seamlessly with NOAA’s UFS.

This evaluation will be based on both quantitative and qualitative criteria and will, at a minimum, target the underlying core codes currently used across NOS (i.e., ADCIRC, SCHISM, FVCOM, ROMS), as well as novel AI/ML architectures, hybrid physics-AI systems and other approaches or emerging models supported by academia and private industry that have the potential to meet NOS modeling requirements (see Attachment A).

Expectations

Present Features Currently, NOS models provide critical support for the ocean enterprise, safe and efficient marine navigation, maritime pilots, coastal management and planning, flooding and inundation forecasts, and emergency response. These model systems generate nowcasts (i.e., current or immediate future state) and forecasts for water levels, currents, salinity, and temperature. The existing suite relies heavily on established core models that are developed and maintained by external modeling communities.

New and Emerging Features NOS is looking toward a 5 to 10-year horizon where the following innovations will transform operational capabilities:

● Cloud-native workflows for more flexible resource scaling.

● GPU and other advanced processing architectures to improve computational throughput.

● AI/ML inserts to enhance or replace components of traditional physics-based models.

● Automated data assimilation and ensemble prediction approaches for improved accuracy and uncertainty quantification.

● Integration with the Earth Modeling System to couple ocean models with land and atmosphere components.

RFI Submission Instructions Interested parties should provide sufficient detailed responses to the technical questions to demonstrate their community model’s present sustained capabilities and future planned features. Responses must be submitted via this Google Form by Friday, August 14, 2026 at 5:00pm Eastern Time.

All questions about the RFI shall be directed by email to Heather Coleman at Heather.L.Coleman@noaa.gov and Stacy Dohse at Stacy.Dohse@noaa.gov. Please also include your firm’s name, Commercial and Government Entity (CAGE) code, Unique Entity Identifier (UEI) number, and primary point of contact information in your response as required by the Google Form.

mailto:Heather.L.Coleman@noaa.gov mailto:Stacy.Dohse@noaa.gov

Only material suitable for internal government distribution shall be submitted. Any proprietary information should be marked accordingly. The Government will not be liable for or suffer consequential damages for improperly identified proprietary information. The U.S. Government will protect all proprietary information received from respondents in accordance with Government regulations, and distribution of any material will be based on a strict need-to-know basis. No classified, confidential, or sensitive information should be included in your response to this RFI. The Government reserves the right to use any information provided by respondents for any purpose deemed necessary and legally appropriate. However, note that the submissions may be subject to review by experts outside of the civil service such as NOAA contractors, each of whom would sign non-disclosure agreements as required.

RFI Submission Instructions