Attachment J.9 Climate Risk Screening.pdf

Climate Risk Screening Results for USAID Local Impact Governance activity as at February 2020

USAID/Zambia Office of Democracy, Human Rights and Governance

Illustrative interventions

Geographies Climate Risks Impacts Risk Rating Actions for Implementation and How Risks are

Addressed at Activity Level

Provide Technical

Assistance and Direct implementation:

• Citizen and private-sector development inputs and oversight

• Planning and evidence-based decision making of local authorities

• Public access to information and sectoral performance data

• Own-source revenue generation of local authorities

• Citizen-government interaction and responsiveness

• Effective integration of

To be determined during activity inception phase, in consultation with the

Government of

Zambia and other stakeholders.

Initially two provinces, likely to expand to a third during the second half of the program.

Muchinga and

Central Province are illustrative.

Generally, the population will be stressed by drought, floods, related health problems, and possible communal tensions due to competition for water, land or other affected resources, along with strains on government service delivery as a result, because of climate change effects:

• Increased drought and intensity of rainfall events

• Climate change may impact people’s health or mobility to engage with government and other stakeholders via community

• Reduced water quality, exacerbating health and sanitation problems

• Spread of waterborne diseases such as cholera

(urban areas), diarrhea (urban and southern provinces), and dysentery

(southern provinces)

• Changing distribution of vector-borne diseases (e.g.

malaria)

• Decreased crop and livestock productivity, leading to increased malnutrition and undernutrition

• Infrastructure damage (roads, bridges) due to excessive floods

Moderate for all interventions

• Strengthened participatory and problem-solving mechanisms to expand actionable inputs from citizens, the private sector and the government for community resilience

• TA to strengthen the local government system’s innovation and responsiveness will also help to deal with climate change threats

• Learning and adaptive management approach during activity implementation will enable climate-related issues that arise to feed into interventions

• Boosting overall awareness in the community about climate change impacts as information flows more effectively among citizens, Climate Risk Screening Results for USAID Local Impact Governance activity as at February 2020 USAID/Zambia Office of Democracy, Human Rights and Governance community influencers

• More effective coordination across health, education and other sectors

• Joint problem-solving by local authorities and central ministries

• Strengthening long-term support for citizen-responsive local governance by

Zambian institutions meetings or formal development-coordination structures overseen by traditional leaders or government.

• Governance efforts aimed at building participation, inclusion and self-reliance at the local level might be diverted to managing conflicts

• More frequent and acute stress on government resources to manage climate threats

• Reduced potential for local authorities to take on devolved services as way to advance Zambia’s decentralization

• Possible reduced fiscal revenue due to constraints on economic development or production

• On positive side, affected populations might be induced to develop or improve resource-sharing mechanisms and problem-solving engagement with government and the private sector to build community resilience and avoid conflict government and the private sector

• Building incentives for citizen inputs and government response to address natural resource management priorities

(such as deforestation) to bolster resilience.

• Promoting collaborative governance structures that allow for coordinated adaptation

• Building the long-term capacity of Zambian civil society including universities, institutes and civic groups to advocate for, participate in, and monitor adaptation planning and resources

• Develop a system to track/monitor the implementation of the identified actions and include these in work plans, budgets, and MEL plans (an indicator or two can be selected and tracked throughout the

LOP).