A2_23_PWS_Climate_Change_6-23-2022_(v2)_1.pdf

PDF 146 KB Posted Jun 23, 2022

Attached to: CalSim Climate Change Input Modernization
Solicitation number: 140R2022Q0102
Issued by: Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation

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PERFORMANCE WORK STATEMENT (PWS)

CalSim Climate Change Input Modernization

June 23, 2022

1.0 SCOPE

The objective of this contract is to acquire contractor services to improve climate change modeling within CalSim, focusing on salinity estimation methods and conversion of climate model output to CalSim model input.

2.0 BACKGROUND

The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) and the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) have collaboratively developed version of the California Simulation (CalSim) model of the Central Valley Project (CVP) and the State Water Project (SWP) operations, known as CalSim II/3. The model simulates monthly water operations for CVP, SWP, and local agencies within the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys using an artificial neural network (ANN) to represent Delta salinity conditions at a fixed sea level. Additionally, when considering climate change within the model, the current workflow requires large investment of time to convert output from climate General Circulation Models (GCMs) to CalSim inputs.

3.0 TYPE OF CONTRACT

This contract shall be a firm fixed price type of contract.

4.0 PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE

The period of performance shall be 16 months from the date of the execution of the award.

5.0 PLACE OF PERFORMANCE

The work to be performed under this contract will be performed at the Contractors facility

6.0 TASK DESCRIPTIONS

The contractor shall perform the following tasks:

1) Project Management, Meetings, and Coordination

2) Salinity Estimation in CalSim II

3) Salinity Estimation in CalSim 3

4) Conversion of General Circulation Models (GCM) output to CalSim II/3 Inputs

6.1 Project Management, Meetings, and Coordination

The Contractor shall liaise with Reclamation technical staff on a weekly basis during the course of the task order to coordinate tasks, resources and activities, and review progress and schedule. Additional communications shall be required to exchange information for billing and invoicing as needed.

6.1.1 Deliverables and Due Dates

• Deliverables: Summaries of weekly progress meetings. Monthly invoices and progress reports.

• Due Date: Performance period of the task order.

6.2 Salinity Estimation in CalSim II

CalSim II currently utilizes an ANN to represent salinity as a function of Delta flows and a fixed sea level condition. Under this task, the Contractor shall assist Reclamation technical staff in creating a first-order regression model as an alternative to the ANN that can represent Delta salinity across sea level conditions at salinity compliance locations. The work will comprise the following steps:

• Collect available observed Delta salinity measurements

• Collect available DSM2/SCHISM model output from CA DWR and Reclamation

• Perform quality control on observed and modeled input

• Develop a regression-based approach for the Delta salinity compliance locations within CalSim II

• Characterize the accuracy of the regression across salinity and sea level conditions

• Modify CalSim II to include the regression as an option in addition to the ANN

6.2.1 Deliverables and Due Dates

• Deliverables: Python 3 based workflow to convert data inputs into the salinity regression;

Modified CalSim II input code to incorporate the regression; collected input data; documentation showing regression accuracy; Conda environment file to document code dependencies

• Due Date: 270 days from the date of award

6.3 Salinity Estimation in CalSim 3

CalSim 3 currently utilizes an ANN to represent salinity as a function of Delta flows and a fixed sea level condition. Under this task, the Contractor shall assist Reclamation technical staff in creating a first-order regression model as an alternative to the ANN that can represent Delta salinity across sea level conditions at salinity compliance locations. The work will comprise the following steps:

• Collect available observed Delta salinity measurements

• Collect available DSM2/SCHISM model output from CA DWR and Reclamation

• Perform quality control on observed and modeled input

• Develop a regression-based approach for the Delta salinity compliance locations within CalSim 3

• Characterize the accuracy of the regression across salinity and sea level conditions

• Modify CalSim 3 to include the regression as an option in addition to the ANN

6.3.1 Deliverables and Due Dates

• Dates Deliverables: Python 3 based workflow to convert data inputs into the salinity regression;

Modified CalSim 3 input code to incorporate the regression; collected input data; documentation showing regression accuracy; Conda environment file to document code dependencies

• Due Date: 270 days from the date of award

6.4 Conversion of GCM output to CalSim II/3 Inputs

Consideration of climate change within CalSim necessitates converting the output of the GCMs used to estimate future climate to CalSim inputs. Under this task, the Contractor shall assist Reclamation technical staff in creating an automated workflow to convert the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) Localized Analog (LOCA) downscaled GCMs to CalSim inputs. This will work will comprise the following steps:

• Download the downscaled CMIP5 ensemble members

• Clip the national GCM files to the CalSim input domains

• Calculate temperature deviation between the historical CalSim period and predicted future conditions

• Calculate precipitation deviation between the historical CalSim period and predicted future conditions

• Collect Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) models for each CalSim watershed basin

• Validate VIC model parametrizations for each CalSim watershed basin

• Apply the predicted temperature/precipitation deviations as to the input VIC grids

• Solve the VIC models

• Reformat the VIC streamflow predictions and meteorology as inputs into CalSim II/3

• Solve CalSim II/3 with the revised inputs

• Apply second order corrections to the CalSim inputs to remove residual biases to the VIC output

• Validation of workflow against previous climate change input development

6.4.1 Deliverables and Due Dates

• Deliverables: Python 3 based script for each task step; Conda environment file to document code dependencies; documentation showing workflow validation

• Due Date: 365 days from the date of award

7.0 PERFORMANCE REQUIREMENTS SUMMARY AND QUALITY ASSURANCE

SURVIELLANCE PLAN (QASP)

Performance Requirement Summary (PRS)

Acceptable Quality

Method of Surveillance

Deduction

Tasks 1, 2, 3, 4

Timeliness:

Recommendations are provided in a timely manner and are submitted by the date. Dates will be set within 30 days of award.

Meet 98% timeliness threshold in “Performance Indicator”

Contractor does not meet 98% Timeliness threshold in “Performance Indicator”. 2% deduction to the months invoice.

Tasks 2, 3, 4 Percentage of comments to code lines

Provide 20% comments in the workflow scripts

Contractor does not meet 15% comment threshold in final product. Contractor shall either revise or accept 2% deduction to total compensation.

Tasks 2, 3, 4 Function calls external to Python libraries

Less than 5% calls to non-Python code, excluding model evaluation calls

Contractor does not meet 4% call threshold in final product.

Contractor shall either revise or accept 2% deduction to total compensation.

8.0 DATA AND REPORTS

The contractor shall provide the following data and reports as follows:

Item No.

Description

Content

Format

Medium

Delivery

1 Quarterly status reports

Budget and schedule status

Email to the

COR

Email to the

COR