A16_-_JOFOC_Under_SAT_v3_signed_-_redacted_1.pdf

United States Department of the Interior

NATIONAL PARK SERVICE

Contracting Operations – Strategic

Business Services Contracting Division 1849 C Street MS2719

Washington, DC 20240

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JUSTIFICATION & APPROVAL FOR OTHER THAN FULL AND OPEN COMPETITION (JFOC)

for SIMPLIFIED ACQUISITIONS OVER $10,000

($2,000/$2500 for Construction/Services) AND UP TO $250.000 (See FAR 13.106-1)

PR Number: 0040672222

1. Nature and/or description of the item/service being procured and its intended use (include the anticipated cost):

DOI-NPS – Contracting Operations – Strategic Branch – NPS – NIFC – Ecology Program has a requirement for a single contractor to provide statistical analysis and consulting for the highly specific fire monitoring data that are collected. The work consists of compiling frequently asked questions (FAQs) from NPS personnel and update responses in an easily accessible guide to assist in analyzing complex fire effects monitoring data for evaluating fire management programs. The work also consists of the development and/or modification statistical tools (e.g., spreadsheets, statistical applications, etc.) for use by NPS personnel to address challenges specific to long-term fire effects monitoring data and programs, including assessing relative change, assessing confidence in meeting objectives unique to NPS fire plans, small sample sizes, calibration, and validation of fire severity imagery, and/or unbalanced sample designs.

The contractor must have in depth knowledge and applied experience to develop tools suited to the unique and varied conditions of this monitoring design/data (e.g., multiple ecosystems, variables, and treatments, repeated measures, etc.). The work shall include the continued development and modification of existing statistical methods for existing software applications used by the NIFC – Ecology Program.

The work will also include two (2) Optional Items that are subject to the availability of funds and includes the development of training materials and onsite and/or virtual training. It also includes the development of a guidance document that can be used as an addendum of the NPS Fire Monitoring Handbook that was last published in 2003.

Total estimated cost is:

2. Sole Source Justification rationale (Check one and explain below):

Only one Responsible Source

Urgent and Complling Circumstances Exist

Other

Explain: Only one Responsible Source:

The NPS fire ecology staff has very specific data that has been collected over the years in regards to fire ecology, and only Dr. Ken Gerow of Stats Alive, LLC has been identified as capable of providing the specific statistical analysis and consulting services regarding this fire ecology data. Stats Alive, LLC with Dr. Ken Gerow has the required in depth knowledge and expertise in fire ecology statistical analysis and has developed the tools currently being used by the NPS that are suited to the unique and varied conditions of this monitoring design/data (e.g., multiple ecosystems, variables, and treatments, repeated measures, etc.). Dr. Ken Gerow is a former professor

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Preserving unimpaired the natural and cultural resources and values of the national park system for the enjoyment, education, and inspiration of this and future generations.

from the University of Wyoming and is considered the leading expert in statistical analysis for ecology. In the past he worked through the University of Wyoming and the NPS Fire Ecology Program under grants to develop the specialized tools and statistical techniques being used by the NPS – Fire Ecology Program for their data analysis. While the tools and techniques are not proprietary, the data that is being analyzed and applied is very specific to fire – ecology, and no other contractor has been identified that specializes in fire ecology statistical data analysis.

Additionally, Dr. Ken Gerow has published specific statistical methods to address NPS fire effects monitoring statistical needs (see Gerow, K., Stewart, D.R., & Farris, C. 2022. Relative Inference for Paired Data: More than

Meets the Eye. Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America, 103(2), https://doi.org/10.1002/bes2.1960) and has additional work in draft for publication. The methods described in these peer-reviewed publications will be directly applied to the tools developed for NPS personnel. Dr. Ken Gerow has also provided statistical training in appropriate application of methods to NPS personnel on the tools and techniques developed with the NPS for Fire

Ecology Analysis.

Dr. Ken Gerow’s unique knowledge of the NPS’s specific database schema is critical to ensure that the existing statistical tools are developed/modified to easily accept the NPS specific data and address the complex nature of the guidance and analytical needs unique to the NPS fire management program. Dr. Ken Gerow has worked closely with the NPS fire effects monitoring data and fully understands the particular complexities of the NPS monitoring system design, database schema, and analyses needed to assess achievement of the specific objectives of the NPS fire program.

As a result of the information above, Dr. Ken Gerow of Stats Alive, LLC has been determined to be the only contractor that can provide these statistical analysis, consulting and training services for the NPS fire ecology staff and a sole source to Stats Alive, LLC is considered to be in the best interest of the Government.

3. Market Research.

The Contracting Officer (CO) conducted additional Market Research upon initial contact about this project. There are multiple contractors available under GSA Schedules under Multi Award Schedules (MAS) under consulting and 541620 – Environmental Consulting Services. The GSA Human Capital and Training Solutions 8A (HCATS

8a) was also reviewed, but the applicable NAICS code for this requirement was not found under either Pool1 or

Pool2, and therefore not considered any further.

The CO also conducted additional Market Research on the open market using the SBA Dynamic Search, and again multiple contractors were found under NAICS code 541620 – Environmental Consulting Services. While there are multiple vendors available, including J Foster & Associates (which currently has an ID/IQ with NIFC) and Environmental Management Services Inc that the CO is also familiar with. While these contractors do provide consulting services and environmental related services, neither contractor has been found to provide the specialized experience that Dr. Ken Gerow and Stats Alive, LLC provides.

4. If this is a determination for sole source, the contracting officer certifies:

Other reasons exist for soliciting from a single source as stated above.

The anticipated price was determined fair and reasonable using the price analysis techniques described in FAR

Part 13.106-3(a).

Project Officer Date:

Contract Specialist Date:

Contracting Officer Date:

https://doi.org/10.1002/bes2.1960

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Preserving unimpaired the natural and cultural resources and values of the national park system for the enjoyment, education, and inspiration of this and future generations.

Warranted Individual, 1 Level Above Contracting Officer (Over $50,000, if applicable)

One (1) Level Above Contracting Officer Date: