A04-Econ_Model_SOWdraft_1.pdf

July 2025 Statement of Work 1

Computable General Equilibrium Modeling to Support the Development of an Economic Impact Forecasting Tool

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 Agency mission

The mission of the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI), Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is to sustain the health, diversity, and productivity of public lands for the use and enjoyment of present and future generations (https://www.blm.gov/).

1.2 Background

The Federal Land Policy and Management Act (FLPMA) requires that “in the development and revision of land use plans, the Secretary shall use a systematic interdisciplinary approach to achieve integrated consideration of physical, biological, economic, and other sciences” (43 USC 1712(c)(2);

https://uscode.house.gov/browse/prelim@title43/chapter35/subchapter2&edition=prelim). Moreover, the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) directs all agencies of the Federal Government to “utilize a systematic, interdisciplinary approach which will ensure the integrated use of the natural and social sciences and the environmental design arts in planning and in decision making which may have an impact on man’s environment” (42 USC 4332(2)(A);

https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?path=/prelim@title42/chapter55&edition=prelim).

BLM is developing an Economic Impact Forecasting Tool to comprehensively and consistently estimate the economic impacts for various types of land use plans and NEPA projects including Resource Management Plans (RMPs) to support decision-making which in turn contributes to the well-being and benefits of present and future generations. The Economic Impact Forecasting Tool will provide results and explanations showing how management activities by different economic sectors will affect current local, regional, and national economies and future options, based on the interdependence of economic sectors and consumption and investment behaviors. An example of a result is increasing A% oil and gas development in county X causes the increase of B% employment in the transportation sector in county X and the increase of C% of revenue in recreation activities in the neighboring county B. The expected results and explanations require an adaptive Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with county-level data and modeling results as inputs. The CGE model developed by the Center for Global Trade Analysis at Purdue University (hereafter Purdue University), that is, the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, is the most widely used CGE model, allows users to explain the interdependence of economic sectors, and contains the most complete global database at national level. Purdue University continues to update its database. The GTAP CGE model is formulated and solved using the General Equilibrium Modeling Package (GEMPACK) suite of software. RunGTAP is a visual interface to various GEMPACK programs, which allows users to run and analyze simulations interactively in a Windows environment. The GTAP CGE model can be readily extended to fulfill BLM’s requirement.

Draf t https://www.blm.gov/ https://uscode.house.gov/browse/prelim@title43/chapter35/subchapter2&edition=prelim https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?path=/prelim@title42/chapter55&edition=prelim

July 2025 Statement of Work 2

1.3 Objectives

To support the development of BLM’s Economic Impact Forecasting Tool (EIFT), Purdue University will provide a working and documented version of a static GTAP-EIFT model of the United States economy with two extensions; namely, (1) state-level and county-level database, and (2) specific economic sectors which are most relevant to BLM’s work. The static GTAP-EIFT will be utilized to generate simulations as inputs to BLM’s Economic Impact Forecasting Tool which in turn will have a broad range of applications in BLM’s work.

2. TASKS

To meet the above objectives, Purdue University shall perform the following tasks in order to produce a working and documented version of the extended static GTAP-EIFT model of the United States economy with an extension to state-level and county-level database and with another extension to BLM-specific economic sectors at the full level of disaggregation.

2.1 GEMPACK

Purdue University shall provide the GEMPACK computer model code, dataset, and economic parameters for an extended static GTAP-EIFT model of the United States economy with two extensions at the full level of sectoral disaggregation.

• 65 standard sectors in the GTAP 11c Data Base, with base year 2017, and the extension of five BLM-specific sectors including (a) mineral development (that is, oil, natural gas, coal), (b) renewable energy (that is, solar, wind, and geothermal), (c) outdoor recreation, (d) ruminant/grazing livestock, and (e) forest/timber.

• 160 countries in GTAP 11c Data Base and the extension of 51 states including the District of Columbia, and further disaggregated to 3000 plus counties within the United States based on the lists of GDP by Industry published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gdp-industry).

2.2 RunGTAP

Purdue University shall provide a RunGTAP version folder and any other necessary interface for this extended static GTAP-EIFT model. The RunGTAP version folder will operate on the GEMPACK software.

2.3 Database and model documentation

Purdue University shall provide database and model documentation for this extended static GTAP-EIFT model, with particular attention to new data and model modifications that are required, including any new assumptions.

2.4 User manual

Purdue University shall provide a step-by-step User Manual illustrating how to use RunGTAP’s GTAP- EIFT version folder to conduct simulations for each of the five BLM specific economic sectors. The simulations will be determined in consultation with the COR.

Draf t https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gdp-industry

July 2025 Statement of Work 3

3. DELIVERABLES

In fulfillment of this effort, Purdue University shall be required to provide deliverables. All deliverables shall be submitted to the Contract Officer Representative (COR), unless otherwise agreed upon. Unless otherwise specified, the Government will have a maximum of ten (10) working days from the day the draft deliverable is received to review the document, provide comments back to Purdue University, approve or disapprove the deliverable(s). Purdue University will also have a maximum of ten (10) working days from the day comments are received to provide a response on how Purdue University intends to address comments (may be delivered via email or separate Microsoft Word document). The Government and Purdue University shall agree on the proposed plan to address comments from the Government within ten (10) days of Purdue University providing the proposed plan to the Government.

Purdue University shall deliver the products in a timely manner and in accordance with the following schedule.

The deliverables include:

# Deliverable Delivery to: Due Date 1 Research plan and outline, including model changes and data additions and assumptions

COR

(by email)

Within one (1) month of the date of award

2 Progress report #1 including description of database construction activities

COR

(by email)

Within four (4) months of the date of award

3 Progress report #2 including preliminary model codes and preliminary datasets

COR

(by email)

Within six (6) months of the date of award

4 Progress report #3 including examples of simulations and a draft user manual

COR

(by email)

Within ten (10) months of the date of award

5 Final report, including all documentation COR (by email)

Within twelve (12) months of the date of award

All material associated with the model, including progress reports, technical reports, final report, and model (including all associated program files) will be a non-exclusive property of BLM. BLM may use and adapt the model files however it sees fit.

Purdue University is prohibited from releasing to any source, other than BLM, any interim, draft and final reports or information pertaining to services performed under the awarded contract until approval or official review has been obtained. Furthermore, Purdue University shall ensure that the cover of all progress and final reports contain the following statement:

“The view, opinions, and/or findings contained in this report are those of the author(s) and should not be construed as an official Government position, policy or decision, unless so designated by other documentation.”

4. INSPECTION AND ACCEPTANCE

Final inspection and acceptance of work performed, reports, and other deliverables will be performed by the COR. General quality measures, as set forth below, will be applied to each work product received from Purdue University under this Statement of Work.

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July 2025 Statement of Work 4

(1) Accuracy: work products shall be accurate in presentation, technical content, and adherence to accepted elements of style.

(2) Clarity: work products shall be clear and concise. Any and all diagrams shall be easy to understand and be relevant to the supporting narrative.

(3) Consistency to requirements: all work products must satisfy the requirements of this statement of work.

(4) File editing: all text and diagrammatic files shall be editable by the Government.

(5) Format: unless otherwise stated, all deliverables are due electronically. Electronic files should be submitted in a format that will enable the recipient to read using Microsoft’s Windows operating system, Microsoft Office products, and Adobe Acrobat-PDF.

(6) Timeliness: work products shall be submitted on or before the due date specified in this statement of work or submitted in accordance with a later scheduled date determined by the Government.

5. CONTRACT ADMINISTRATION DATA

5.1 Period of performance

The total period of performance is anticipated to be twelve (12) months from the date of award.

5.2 Place of performance

All work shall be performed at Purdue University.

5.3 Type of contract

BLM anticipates awarding a Firm Fixed Priced Purchase Order.

5.4 Points of contact

The following individuals will serve as the BLM’s points of contact during the performance of this Purchase Order.

Technical Represenative:

Hebin Lin, New Mexico State Office, (505) 954-2116, hlin@blm.gov

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