A02.14 SSJ Under the SAT Bayesian Flood Damage Analysis - SAM.docx

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SOLE SOURCE MEMORANDUM FOR ACTIONS UNDER THE SAT

IAW FAR 13.106-1(b)(1)(i)

1. Contracting Activity: The United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), Humphreys Engineer Center Support Activity (HECSA)

2. Description of Action: Approval is requested for a new, firm fixed price type of contract using Civil Works Funding in the amount of $xxx,xxx.xx

3. Description of Services: The subject requirement is for professional services entitled “Bayesian Enhancement of Flood Risk Management Depth-Damage Modeling”

4. Authority Cited: 10 U.S.C. 2304(C)(1) or 41 U.S.C. 253(C)(1) as implemented in FAR 13.106-1(b)(1)(i)

5. Reason for Authority Cited: The identified contractor is Duke University. Principal Investigator Dr. Mark Borsuk PhD, Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, whose team possesses over 50 years of combined experience with working with USACE and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) datasets and has contributed greatly to Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning, specifically when applied towards Flood Damage Analyses. Dr. Borsuk’s team brings together a uniquely qualified group of researchers, practitioners, and advisors with complementary expertise spanning engineering modeling, urban flood risk, adaptation planning, policy analysis, and decision science. Led by senior investigators with internationally recognized strengths in Bayesian inference, environmental risk analysis, and flood resilience planning, the team combines deep technical capabilities in hydrologic and hydraulic simulation, statistical flood modeling, and spatial economic analysis. Supporting staff and students contribute specialized skills in geospatial data processing, cost-benefit evaluation, and infrastructure risk modeling, including experience developing 2D HEC-RAS models and automated floodplain simulation pipelines. Strategic advisors include former U.S. Army Corps of Engineers leadership and experienced federal policy advisors with extensive involvement in flood risk reduction, natural infrastructure, and Corps decision processes. Together, this interdisciplinary team offers the leadership, experience, and applied skillset needed to develop transferable flood damage modeling frameworks that are technically robust, operationally relevant, and compatible with USACE workflows. Dr. Borsuk also has a long and positive research work history with Federal agencies, having been funded by NSF, EPA, NIH, NIEHS and USFS, among others. His team includes former USACE staff such as Todd Bridges, PhD from ERDC who a Subject Matter Expert on flood recovery and nature-based solutions.

Acquiring Dr. Borsuk’s professional services for this work would be exceptionally cost- and time-efficient, and optimal for the government. While there are other academics who have applied AI and Machine Learning to guide government decision making, to date, there are few who can match the skill and knowledge of Dr. Borsuk’s team. At the same time, many contractors have extensive experience working with the USACE FRM program; however, they do not possess the specialized experience of applying AI and machine learning specifically to flood datasets from a wide variety of agencies and organizations. An alternative vendor unfamiliar with the USACE flood program or without access to the large datasets would likely require a steep learning curve thereby necessitating additional time for contract period of performance and would increase costs to the Government. They would also likely need more time to forge relationships with FEMA and other organizations in obtaining such datasets, with no guarantee they will be provided in time or to the quality the proposal requires. The estimated impact in time, at minimum, is an increase of approximately 33% in labor hours and subsequent costs for each of the nine (9) tasks listed in the scope of work, easily increasing the cost of the overall contract by $xx,xxx.xx. Moreover, there is a significant risk of creating inconsistencies in the data and errors in the critical processes, which could impact the computation of depth-damage curves in the field.

6. Efforts to Obtain Competition: Market research has shown that it is not practical to compete this requirement. Given Dr. Borsuk’s exceptional qualifications and extensive understanding of the USACE and FEMA data attempting this action without them would be highly inefficient and costly. This requirement will be synopsized on the Contract Opportunities section of the SAM.gov website for 15 days. Interested vendors will be given the chance to respond to the Notice of Intent to Sole Source and will be required to provide a capability statement if they believe they can meet the requirements in the Performance Work Statement.

7. Actions to Increase Competition: As a means of increasing competition, IWR performed market research by considering academia as well as various USACE contract vehicles, including the Blanket Purchase Agreements for Independent External Peer Review of Water Resources Projects, and other organizations We also reached out to the Corps’ PCX and Economics Community of Practice as we toyed with the possibility of performing the work using data analysts in house as well as FEMA.

8. Market Research: Market research has not identified a comparable entity with a sufficient understanding of the uniqueness and intricacy of the work, which require (1) longstanding development of Bayesian models; (2) significant knowledge of the USACE Flood Risk Management mission, and most importantly, (3) access to multiple open source and proprietary flood datasets. While there are firms that possess one or two of the factors cited above, based on our research, no firms possess all three and to the level needed for this procurement.

9. Interested Sources: To date, no other sources have written to express an interest. The notices required by FAR 5.201 will be published, and any response received will be considered.

10. Other Facts: None.

11. Fair and Reasonable Cost Determination: I hereby determine that the anticipated price to the Government for this contract action will be fair and reasonable, based on FAR 13.106-3(a)(2)(vi) “Comparison to an independent Government estimate.” Per FAR 15.403-1(b)(3), certified cost and pricing data is not required.

David A. Kaplan Procuring Contracting Officer Email: David.A.Kaplan@usace.army.mil

12. Contracting Officer Certification: I certify that this justification is accurate and complete to the best of my knowledge and belief.

Approval Based on the foregoing justification, I hereby approve award of a firm fixed price contract in the amount of $xxx,xxx.xx on a sole source contract that is alternate to a full and open competition basis pursuant to the authority of FAR 13.106-1(b)(1)(i), subject to availability of funds, and provided that the services and property herein described have otherwise been authorized for acquisition.

Prepared by:

Helen (Kieran) Jacobson Contract Specialist Email: Helen.Jacobson@usace.army.mil

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(Source Selection information - See FAR 2.101 and 3.104-4)