A02.14 SSJ Under SAT - IJC Pike and Muskrat Plan - SAM.gov.docx

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SOLE SOURCE MEMORANDUM FOR ACTIONS UNDER THE SAT

IAW FAR 13.106-1(b)(1)(i)

1. Contracting Activity: The United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), Humphreys Engineer Center Support Activity (HECSA)

2. Description of Action: Approval is requested for a new, firm fixed type purchase order using Civil Funding in the amount of $XXX,XXX.XX with an eighteen-month period of performance.

3. Description of Supplies/Services: The International Joint Commission has ordered an expedited review and evaluation of the Lake Ontario Regulation Plan, Plan 2014. Funding from each of the Canadian and United States Governments has been authorized for work on their respective sides of the international border with the USACE being responsible for executing the United States’ portion of the work. The evaluation of Plan 2014 depends on understanding how well various performance metrics used to select the regulation plan have reflected the impacts of unprecedented high-water levels on Lake Ontario.

Two of the metrics used to evaluate ecosystem response to water levels in the prior study are Muskrat House density in the Upper St. Lawrence River and young of year production for Northern Pike in the Thousand Islands portion of the Upper S. Lawrence River. Updates to the prior metrics need to be performed to validate the prior models and new analysis is required to evaluate the use of abiotic indicators for long term adaptive management of the Lake Ontario and St Lawrence River system. The anticipated cost of the work under this contract is $XXX,XXX.XX, ending December 31, 2024.

4. Authority Cited: 41 U.S.C. 253(C)(1) as implemented in FAR 13.106-1(b)(1)(i)

5. Reason for Authority Cited: Adaptive management is a central tenet to progressive water levels management policy and requires evolving targeted data collection and analysis to develop an understanding of system responses to regulated hydrodynamics for decision making. This project addresses a need to apply long-term and targeted data to update of two previously developed plan performance indicators, 1) Northern Pike (Esox lucius) young-of-year (YOY) productivity and 2) Muskrat (Ondatra zibethicus) house density. Northern pike and muskrat are wetland dependent species and are a focus of long-term monitoring program at SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry and funded by the NYS Department of Environmental Conservation and the US Fish and Wildlife Service. The data will be incorporated into a comprehensive modelling and performance indicator update and validation assessment provided to the GLAM.

The identified contractor is Dr. John Farrell, a research scientist and Professor at the State University of New York, College of Environmental Science and Forestry (SUNY ESF). Much of his research is focused on fish ecology, coastal wetland ecology, and addressing environmental problems facing freshwater ecosystems. Dr. Farrell is uniquely qualified to conduct this work due to his earlier engagement as a member of the Ecosystem Technical Workgroup of the Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River (LOSLR) Study and his earlier contributions toward the development of Plan 2014. Dr. Farrell also has also collected and maintained continuous long-term monitoring datasets (2001 to present) on wetland-dependent northern pike spawning/recruitment, muskrat house density, and changes in wetland vegetation and habitat in both Lake Ontario and the Upper St. Lawrence River. These long-term wetland, northern pike, and muskrat datasets are unique and are not available from any other source or investigator.

Northern Pike YOY Productivity Indicator The proposed work will incorporate long-term nearshore northern pike fish monitoring data to assess the impact Plan deviations during the 2017 and 2019 high-water events on Lake Ontario and the Upper St. Lawrence River. The spawning distribution of northern pike is controlled by habitat presence and access to suitable substrates driven by hydrology and thermal regimes. Recent habitat studies by Dr. Farrell have demonstrated effects of high-water levels, including the 2017 flood, on northern pike productivity in a drowned river mouth wetland in the upper river. During these high-water events, there was a spatial and temporal transition of northern pike spawning from shallow flooded habitats to delayed egg deposition in deeper offshore habitats. Dr. Farrell’s research found that local northern pike year class failures occurred more often when associated with deep-water egg deposition. The proposed work provides an opportunity to use these unique historical datasets to update, simplify, and refine the existing northern pike recruitment models to better understand how water levels and associated changes in wetland habitat/connectivity relate to young-of-the-year (YOY) recruitment of northern pike and other wetland dependent fish species.

As a component of this work, Dr. Farrell’s team will continue to collect field data on the relative abundance of young-of-year northern pike along with other wetland fish species. This data will be incorporated into existing long-term datasets and be used to update the integrated logistic regression and bioenergetic models. Data analytics using SUNY ESF long-term nearshore fish and wetland habitat datasets in addition to the NYSDEC Warmwater Fisheries Assessment database will allow Dr. Farrell’s research team to examine biophysical relationships of northern pike populations to water level variability. The research team will analyze these data to examine their sensitivity to water level variations over time and space and use the data to update the modelling algorithms for use in the ISEE model currently being developed for the Plan 2014 Expedited Review.

Muskrat House Density Indicator Dr. Farrell’s research team developed a model to predict muskrat performance for the Upper St. Lawrence River based on the presence/absence (probability of occupancy) for a wetland coupled with prediction of the annual density of active muskrat houses (number of active houses per hectare). Data collected during past studies demonstrate that water level regulation has had a negative impact on the abundance of muskrat in upper St. Lawrence River coastal wetlands. Dr. Farrell’s research suggests that low fall and winter water levels prevent access to the floodplain for muskrat overwintering. More recent modeling work suggests that muskrat house densities may have been suppressed by water regulation relative to unregulated water-levels.

The proposed work will continue the monitoring of muskrat house density using semi-annual field surveys to update the historic muskrat house density database. Historic survey data are also available for drowned river mouth wetlands and coastal bays on Lake Ontario and the Upper St. Lawrence River. Dr. Farrell’s research team will validate ground counts with the use of satellite imagery and will also use historic satellite imagery to estimate house densities to reconstruct past muskrat populations in coastal wetlands. All identified muskrat houses will have GPS coordinates and using available Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), historic wetland water levels can be inferred and related to muskrat house density overwintering.

Satellite images will be purchased of wetlands where ground field surveys are conducted, and the images will be interpreted for house presence and location and compared to field counts as a validation measure for this technique. Dr. Farrell has also developed a muskrat house abandonment dataset that include structural information on muskrat house characteristics (dimensions, materials, water depth). Using these unique datasets, Dr. Farrell’s research team will develop explanatory statistical models based on muskrat house count/distribution and habitat selection (water depth and vegetation) to update the modelling algorithms for use in the ISEE model currently being developed for the Plan 2014 Expedited Review.

Abiotic Monitoring In addition to the work proposed above, Dr. Farrell has developed a database of existing field data from wetland logger arrays for abiotic variables (e.g., wetland water levels, water temperature, dissolved oxygen) to assist with analyses of water level and climate change impacts on suitability of wetland habitat (northern pike/muskrat house density) and wetland processes. These analyses will consider the potential effects of water levels (and climate change) on the prevalence of wetland hypoxia (Dissolved Oxygen levels below 4 ug/L). This data may be used to develop a new Performance Indicator that describes potential impacts of seasonal oxygen level variability on coastal wetlands and use by wetland-dependent species of interest.

Dr. Farrell is uniquely qualified for this work given his technical expertise and comprehensive knowledge of the IERM algorithms and input requirements for northern pike and muskrat models along with access to field data and historic databases for northern pike and muskrat currently housed at SUNY ESF. As Dr. Farrell is currently employed by SUNY ESF, it is therefore in the best interest of the U.S. Government to issue a contract to the Office of Research, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry to perform this work.

6. Efforts to Obtain Competition: A Notice of Intent to Sole Source this requirement was publicized as required by FAR Subpart 5.2 which includes the Performance Work Statement. Interested parties will be given 15 days to respond to the notice and may provide a capabilities statement or a proposal.

7. Actions to Increase Competition: It is not possible to compete the current acquisition. Should other data models become available in the future or other sources authorized to use the existing data models, competition will be considered.

8. Market Research: Market Research conducted by the Requiring Activity indicates that SUNY ESF is the only source that can provide the required services within the required schedule of performance at a reasonable cost. Award of a new contract to another source would require new sources to develop a new model for the Northern Pike YOY Indicator, a new model for the Muskrat House Density Indicator and a new model for Abiotic Attenuation, all of which would require an unreasonable duration of time to develop and would require peer review thus further delaying implementation of new models. Accordingly, award to any entity other than SUNY ESF is impractical.

9. Interested Sources: To date, no other sources have written to express an interest. Notices required by FAR 5.201 were published. No bids or proposals were received.

10. Other Facts: No procurement history exists for SUNY ESF and the USACE.

11. Fair and Reasonable Cost Determination: I hereby determine that the anticipated price to the Government for this contract action will be fair and reasonable, based on the procedures found at FAR 13.106-3 (a)(2)(ii), comparison of the proposed price with prices found reasonable on previous purchases and FAR 13.106-3 (a)(2)(vi), comparison to an independent Government estimate. The exemption for providing Certified Cost & Price data found at FAR 15.403-1(a) “Certified cost or pricing data shall not be obtained for acquisitions at or below the simplified acquisition threshold” applies to this requirement as the contract action is below the threshold for certified cost & pricing data.

David A. Kaplan Procuring Contracting Officer Phone: 703-428-8487

12. Contracting Officer Certification: I certify that this justification is accurate and complete to the best of my knowledge and belief.

David A. Kaplan Procuring Contracting Officer Phone: 703-428-8487

Approval Based on the foregoing justification, I hereby approve award of a firm fixed price contract in the amount of $247,802 on an other than full and open competition basis pursuant to the authority of FAR 13.106-1(b)(1)(i), subject to availability of funds, and provided that the services and property herein described have otherwise been authorized for acquisition.

David A. Kaplan Procuring Contracting Officer Phone: 703-428-8487

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(Source Selection information - See FAR 2.101 and 3.104-4)