Attachment J11 - SURGE Evaluation.pdf

DISCLAIMER: The author’s views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.

STRENGTHENING URBAN RESILIENCE

FOR GROWTH WITH EQUITY (SURGE)

END-OF-PROJECT PERFORMANCE

EVALUATION

FINAL REPORT

USAID/Philippines Collaborating, Learning and Adapting for Improved Development

SOURCE: CDO_PPAPMOCDO

Contract Number: 72049220D00004

Submitted: March 15, 2022

Contractor: Panagora Group

COR: Albert Aquino

Authors: Nicasio Agustin (Team Leader), Rudini Baoy, Rupert Deluna, Senen Dizon, and Ginny Santiago

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ABSTRACT

This evaluation of the Strengthening Urban Resilience for Growth with Equity (SURGE) project assessed its implementation progress and achievements. Evaluation questions focused on the relevance, effectiveness, and sustainability of SURGE’s accomplishments and incorporated learning questions from SURGE’s activity monitoring and evaluation plan (AMELP).

The evaluation examined SURGE activities in the eight Cities Development Initiative (CDI) cities using a mixed methods approach. It encompassed an overall assessment of SURGE interventions across all the eight CDI cities, a deeper analysis of four CDI cities, and a focused analysis of water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) interventions in Marawi City

The evaluation found that SURGE has significantly contributed to improved local capacity for inclusive and resilient urban development; improved the enabling environment for local economic development; improved connectivity and access between urban and rural areas; and provided capacity support for entrepreneurship among women in the eight CDI cities.

Given its accomplishments, it can be concluded that SURGE was highly relevant to the needs of Philippine CDI cities. The project achieved considerable success in its primary areas of assistance, and it is likely that many of SURGE’s initiatives can be sustained beyond the life of the project

The factors that will contribute to the sustainability of SURGE activities include: 1) the government initiating national laws mandating that Local Government Units (LGUs) mainstream the interventions; 2) LGUs adopting policies and plans in areas with SURGE support; 3) key city stakeholders acquiring the technical expertise needed to perform mandated functions as a result of the project’s capacity building activities; and 4) LGUs having adequate budgets to implement immediate follow-through activities. Changes in political leadership arising from the local elections in 2022 could hinder sustainability.

The following recommendations are put forward for USAID’s consideration: 1) support the implementation of plans formulated under SURGE; 2) institutionalize initiatives introduced by SURGE; 3) support information and communications technology (ICT) applications to improve urban governance and management; and 4) facilitate the development of LGU capacity development road maps.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................... I

ACRONYMS ........................................................................................................................... III

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY........................................................................................................ V

EVALUATION PURPOSE AND EVALUATION QUESTIONS

FINDINGS

CONCLUSIONS

RECOMMENDATIONS

WASH ASSISTANCE IN MARAWI: AN ENTRY POINT TO RESPONSIVE LOCAL

GOVERNANCE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

SURGE ASSISTANCE IN COVID-19 RESPONSE: A LESSON OF RELEVANCE

DURING THE PANDEMIC

ANNEXES

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ACRONYMS

AMELP Activity Monitoring and Evaluation Plan BFAR Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources BFP Bureau of Fire Protection BoSNet Bohol Seaweed Network BPLD Business Permitting Licensing Division BPLO Business Permitting Licensing Office BPLS Business Permitting Licensing System BPO Business Process Outsourcing CAAP Civil Aviation Authority of the Philippines CCA Climate Change Adaptation CCC Climate Change Commission CDCS Country Development Cooperation Strategy CDI Cities Development Initiative CDO Cagayan de Oro CDRA Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment CHM Compiled Hypertext Markup CLUP Comprehensive Land Use Plan CMCI City and Municipality Competitiveness Index CPC City Program Coordinator CPDO City Planning Development Office DBM Department of Budget and Management DENR Department of Environment and Natural Resources DICT Department of Information and Communications Technology DILG Department of the Interior and Local Government DO Development Objective DOST Department of Science and Technology DPWH Department of Public Works and Highways DRR Disaster Risk Reduction DRRM Disaster Risk Reduction Management DRRMP Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Plan DTI Department of Trade and Industry EO Executive Order EODB Ease of Doing Business FGD Focus Group Discussion GHG Greenhouse Gas GIS Geographic Information System ICMA International City/County Management Association ICT Information and Communications Technology IDP Internally Displaced People INVEST Investment Enabling Environment IR Intermediate Result IRA Internal Revenue Allotment IT Information Technology JIT Joint Inspection Team JMC Joint Memorandum Circular JMC 2018 DILG-DPWH-DICT-DTI Joint Memorandum Circular 1, series of 2018 iv | SURGE END-OF-PROJECT PERFORMANCE EVALUATION

KII Key Informant Interview LCCAP Local Climate Change Adaptation Planning LED Low-emission Economic Development LEIPO Local Economic and Investment Promotion Office LGU Local Government Unit LIS Land Information System LOP Life of Project LPTRP Local Public Transportation Route Plan M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MCWD Marawi City Water District MOA Memorandum of Agreement MSME Micro, Small, and Medium-Sized Enterprises NEDA National Economic and Development Authority NSS National Spatial Strategy PADTEC Panglao-Dauis-Tagbilaran Executive Council PDP Philippine Development Plan PFG Partnership for Growth PFM Public Financial Management PHIVOLCS Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology PPA Programs, Projects, and Activities PPP Public-Private Partnership RA Republic Act SAMP Strategic Asset Management Plan SFMP Strategic Financial Management Plan SURGE Strengthening Urban Resilience for Growth with Equity TFBM Task Force Bangon Marawi TWG Technical Working Group UDLP Urban Development Learning Program ULIS Unified Land Information System USG United States Government W-GDP Women’s Global Development and Prosperity WASH Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene WSP Water Safety Plan

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The U.S. Agency for International Development/Philippines (USAID/PH) commissioned the Collaborating, Learning, and Adapting for Improved Health (CLAimHealth) activity, implemented by Panagora Group, to conduct a third-party performance evaluation of the Strengthening Urban Resilience for Growth with Equity (SURGE) project. The evaluation assessed SURGE’s implementation progress and achievement of its project objectives, which revolve around improving government operations in selected second-tier cities that are deemed important drivers of inclusive economic growth. Results of the evaluation will inform the co-creation of next-generation activities under the USAID policy on urban resiliency, particularly in improving the delivery of essential services in urban areas and strengthening interconnections between urban and rural areas, as well as USAID’s strategy on water and development. Aside from accountability and learning, the evaluation will also inform USAID-wide policy on local capacity development.

SURGE’s primary goal was to provide innovative, creative, and cost-effective solutions that promote broad-based, inclusive, and resilient economic growth, which in turn foster increased investment, economic opportunities, and productive employment for a critical mass of cities beyond the high-growth areas of Manila, Davao, and Cebu1. The International City/County Management Association (ICMA) implemented the $47.8 million SURGE activity from July 2015 to December 2021. SURGE was the flagship project of USAID’s Cities Development Initiative (CDI), a crucial component of the broader Partnership for Growth (PFG).

SURGE assisted cities and adjacent areas in: 1) strengthening local capacity for inclusive and resilient urban development, including the promotion of disaster risk reduction (DRR), climate change adaptation (CCA), and ensuring access to sustainable water supply and sanitation services; 2) promoting low-emission local economic development strategies together with streamlined administrative and regulatory procedures, and improved infrastructure and transport systems; and 3) expanding economic connectivity and access between urban and rural areas.

EVALUATION QUESTIONS

The evaluation focused on SURGE’s performance toward achieving its stated objectives and outputs.

Evaluation questions focused on the relevance, effectiveness, and sustainability of SURGE’s accomplishments, and incorporated learning questions from SURGE’s activity monitoring and evaluation plan (AMELP).

The main evaluation questions are:

• Relevance (alignment to policy and strategy): To what extent has SURGE contributed to addressing the development challenges that motivated the Partnership for Growth-Cities Development Initiative, the thrusts of the Philippine Development Plan (PDP, 2017-2022), the current and former USAID/Philippines Country Development Cooperation Strategy (CDCS), and USAID’s policies on urban resiliency and water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH)?

1 SURGE focus cities were Batangas, Iloilo, Cagayan de Oro, Puerto Princesa, Tagbilaran, Zamboanga, Legazpi, and General Santos.

https://www.usaid.gov/philippines/partnership-growth-pfg/cdi https://www.usaid.gov/philippines/partnership-growth-pfg vi | SURGE END-OF-PROJECT PERFORMANCE EVALUATION

• Effectiveness (original context of CDI-SURGE): To what extent did SURGE achieve the three objectives of improving local urban development processes, promoting local economic development, and expanding connectivity and access between urban and rural areas?

• Sustainability: What is the likelihood that initiatives and gains will continue after the completion of the project?

The evaluation examined SURGE activities in eight CDI cities using a mixed methods approach. It encompassed an overall assessment of SURGE interventions across all eight CDI cities, a deeper analysis of four CDI cities, and a focused analysis of WASH interventions in Marawi City, the last of which being undertaken as an extension of Cagayan de Oro City activities and in response to the destruction resulting from a 2017 siege by a group affiliated with the Islamic State (ISIS).

The main accomplishments of SURGE are as follows:

• The project was highly relevant to the needs of Philippine CDI cities.

USAID/Philippines designed SURGE to align with the Government of the Philippines’ policy priorities and program needs. SURGE achieved this, operating as a demand-driven project by identifying individual activities through close consultation with municipal governments.

• SURGE achieved considerable success in its primary areas of assistance. This included helping target cities to integrate DRR and CCA into local planning, improving economic enabling environments through simplifying the business registration process, implementing land registry systems, and increasing local revenue generation. It also helped target cities increase urban-rural economic linkages by expanding transport networks and enabling better production and marketing of select regional products, specifically seaweed and cassava. SURGE also supported select cities to improve water quality services, including rehabilitating water systems in Marawi following the highly destructive 2017 siege.

• By design, and through good management, it is likely that many of SURGE’s initiatives can be sustained beyond the life of the project. The main reasons for this include a careful alignment between project activities and local policies; the demand-driven nature of the project; and the specific attention given to building the skills and systems required to improve CDI management (e.g., by providing extensive skills training and helping establish university programs to ensure future expertise and skills in areas of project focus, including DRR and CCA).

The evaluation’s main findings, conclusions, and recommendations are as follows:

FINDINGS

Improved Local Capacity for Inclusive and Resilient Urban Development. SURGE support enhanced the skills of local planners in mainstreaming climate resilience and disaster risk reduction in all eight target cities, with key successes including: 1) the development and adoption of risk-sensitive, socially inclusive and gender-responsive local development plans in compliance with national laws; 2) integration of CCA and DRR into WASH infrastructure planning and implementation; and 3) promotion of low emission development strategies in local development planning and investment programming. CDI cities are now able to mainstream CCA and DRR into their updated Comprehensive Land Use Plans (CLUPs), prepare and adopt Greenhouse Gas (GHG) management plans, and increase the resilience of urban water and sanitation services.

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Improved Enabling Environment for Local Economic Development. Through SURGE assistance, CDI cities were able to 1) develop improved and updated strategic asset management plans (SAMPs) and strategic financial management plans (SFMPs); 2) streamline and automate local business registration and permitting processes; and 3) improve local land tenure security and land information management through the development of a unified land information system. Utilization of the SURGE-supported business and land registration systems helped all CDI cities increase local revenue collection. SURGE also helped strengthen select Local Economic Investment Promotion Offices (LEIPOs).

Improved Connectivity and Access Between Urban and Rural Areas. Key project activities that contributed to improving connectivity and access between urban and rural areas included: 1) introduction of all-cargo air services and new flight services to General Santos City; 2) assistance in preparing tourism development plans for three CDI cities; and 3) establishing improved market linkages between local producers and major markets for the seaweed farmers in Puerto Princesa and cassava growers in Zamboanga. This also led to increased investment in commodity production in the seaweed and cassava sectors.

Capacity Support for Entrepreneurship Among Women in Target Areas. In response to the hardships caused by COVID-19, SURGE helped establish local business service centers for women entrepreneurs. Around 750 businesses and online (selling) platforms benefited from SURGE training on digital marketing. Moreover, about 5,000 women participated in at least one of the 182 activities organized or co-hosted by the project, including training and mentoring. The project also assisted CDI cities to draft, propose, and adopt laws, policies, and procedures that promote gender equality.

Sustainability: As mentioned under key project accomplishments, most SURGE activities will likely continue beyond the life of the project. Contributing factors include an emphasis on operating under existing policies; helping organizations acquire the skills required to run new programs, and in several cases creating partnerships with existing agencies to provide continuity for capacity and training services supported by the project; and instituting a variety of administrative tools and improvements to increase local resource mobilization.

Sustainability challenges include: 1) re-assignment of SURGE-trained personnel to other departments; 2) in some cases, a lack of follow-up capacity building activities; and 3) changes in political leadership in 2022, which may result in a shift of LGU priorities and derail the implementation of some clean energy programs, projects, and activities (PPA) identified in local plans.

CONCLUSIONS

Relevance: SURGE interventions to improve the institutional capacity of CDI cities in inclusive and resilient urban development contributed to USAID’s development priorities under the Cities Development Initiative-Partnership for Growth; CDCS (previous and current) and USAID’s policies on urban resilience and WASH; the Philippine Development Plan 2017-2022; USAID’s direction to improve the competitiveness of second-tier cities; and the National Spatial Strategy (NSS) of the Government of the Philippines. The SURGE project was demand-driven and highly aligned with the needs of the CDI cities.

Effectiveness: The SURGE project helped strengthen capacity in inclusive and resilient urban development and improved the enabling environment for local economic development for the target viii | SURGE END-OF-PROJECT PERFORMANCE EVALUATION

CDI cities. SURGE also improved connectivity and access between urban and rural areas by addressing local regulatory constraints that limit the mobilization of investment capital and increase the costs of doing business in the target CDI cities.

Sustainability: Factors that will contribute to the sustainability of SURGE activities include: 1) the government initiating national laws mandating that Local Government Units (LGUs) mainstream the interventions initiated; 2) LGUs adopting policies and plans in areas supported by SURGE; 3) key city stakeholders acquiring the technical expertise needed to perform mandated functions as a result of the project’s capacity building activities; and 4) LGUs having adequate budgets to implement immediate follow-through activities. Changes in political leadership arising from the local elections in 2022 could be a hindering factor to sustainability.

RECOMMENDATIONS

The following recommendations are put forward for USAID’s consideration.

Support The Implementation of Plans Formulated Under SURGE. Subsequent programs or interventions should focus on strengthening the capacities of partner LGUs by implementing plans that SURGE has developed and conducting follow-through activities. Such activities could include a continued focus on administrative system streamlining and efficiency to support local revenue generation, implementation of DRR and CAA plan priorities, and helping to implement projects to mitigate GHGs.

Institutionalization of Initiatives Introduced by SURGE. Methods and tools to institutionalize SURGE’s initiatives could include continued policy support, strengthening or establishing appropriate structures, publication of manuals of processes and systems created under the SURGE project and introduced or supported with local governments, and documentation of effective training modules to support replication of successful programs to additional cities.

Application of ICT in Urban Governance and Management. Future interventions should focus on capacity development (institutions and people) for integrated information technology (IT) systems for local and urban governance and management. This can help to further advance some of the efficiency gains supported by SURGE.

Develop Post-Project LGU Capacity Development Road Maps to address future training needs of LGU stakeholders such as second-line managers and technical staff, as well as new recruits, to ensure gains are maintained and adequate skills remain available.

Define Appropriate Indicators for Better Measurement of Results of Sub-Component Activities. Contributions of specific sub-component activities to cross-cutting indicators should be captured. For some objectives, it was difficult to assess the effectiveness of SURGE sub-components due to a lack of appropriate indicators, or due to the overlap between components.

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EVALUATION PURPOSE AND EVALUATION QUESTIONS

The U.S. Agency for International Development/Philippines (USAID/PH) commissioned the Collaborating, Learning, and Adapting for Improved Health (CLAimHealth) activity, implemented by Panagora Group, to conduct a third-party performance evaluation of the Strengthening Urban Resilience for Growth with Equity (SURGE) project. The International City/County Management Association (ICMA) implemented the $47.8 million SURGE project from July 2015 to December 2021. SURGE was the flagship project of USAID’s Cities Development Initiative (CDI), a crucial component of the broader Partnership for Growth (PFG).

Through this evaluation, USAID/PH aims to assess SURGE’s implementation progress and achievement of its project objective to improve government operations in selected second-tier cities deemed important drivers of inclusive economic growth. Results of the evaluation will inform the co-creation of next-generation activities under the USAID policy on urban resiliency, particularly on improving the delivery of essential services in urban areas and strengthening connections between urban and rural areas, as well as USAID’s strategy on water and development. Aside from accountability and learning, the evaluation will also inform USAID policy on local capacity development.

The evaluation focuses on SURGE’s performance toward achieving its stated objectives and outputs. The evaluation questions focus on the relevance, effectiveness, and sustainability of SURGE’s accomplishments, and incorporate learning questions from SURGE’s activity monitoring and evaluation plan (AMELP). The main evaluation questions are:

• Relevance (alignment to policy and strategy): To what extent has SURGE contributed to addressing the development challenges that motivated the Partnership for Growth-Cities Development Initiative, the thrusts of the National Spatial Strategy (NSS)/Philippine Development Plan (PDP, 2017- 2022), the USAID/Philippines Country Development Cooperation Strategy (CDCS) (previous and current), and USAID’s policies on urban resiliency and water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH)?

• Effectiveness (original context of CDI-SURGE): To what extent did SURGE achieve its objectives on improving local urban development processes, promoting local economic development, and expanding connectivity and access between urban and rural areas?

• Sustainability: What is the likelihood that initiatives and gains will continue after the completion of the project?

These three major evaluation questions are further broken down into main questions, sub-questions, and component-specific probing questions, as presented in Appendix A – Inception Report.

The intended audiences of this evaluation are USAID/PH technical and program office staff, other USAID staff worldwide who are interested in local governance, and those responsible for and interested in urban resiliency, WASH, and local capacity development programs and activities. Philippine stakeholders, including those in the Government of the Philippines, second-tier cities, and other researchers are also a primary audience for this evaluation.

https://www.usaid.gov/philippines/partnership-growth-pfg/cdi https://www.usaid.gov/philippines/partnership-growth-pfg

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After the last part of the evaluation (Conclusions and Recommendations), two case studies are presented: 1) WASH Assistance in Marawi: An Entry Point to Responsive Local Governance and Economic Development; and 2) SURGE Assistance in COVID-19 Response: A Lesson of Relevance Even in Times of Pandemic. These provide insights on how SURGE was able to flexibly contribute to pressing concerns beyond its original scope and still deliver its intended outputs as per the original project design.

SURGE BACKGROUND

Over the past decade, the Philippines’ economic growth has been highly concentrated in three metropolitan areas—Metro-Manila, Cebu, and Davao—leading to high population growth and congestion there. This concentration has also caused inequities and inequitable access to economic opportunities between urban and rural areas. To address this concern, USAID developed the Cities Development Initiative (CDI) to promote economic growth in other well-governed, highly urbanized and secondary cities. The increased economic growth in these other cities would help equalize income distribution across the Philippines.

SURGE’s development hypothesis is that second-tier cities can be developed as engines of growth. The primary goal of SURGE is to provide highly innovative, creative, and cost-effective solutions that set conditions for broad-based, inclusive, and resilient economic growth, which in turn will foster increased investment, economic opportunities, and productive employment for a critical mass of cities and surrounding areas outside Metro Manila.

SURGE assists cities and adjacent areas to plan effectively, provide basic public services, reduce business transaction costs, promote competitiveness, support sustainable development, and reduce disaster risks while ensuring inclusive and sustainable growth. SURGE promotes efforts to: 1) improve local capacity in urban development; 2) increase local economic development by fostering business enabling measures;

and 3) expand economic connectivity and access between urban and peripheral areas.

Tasks under SURGE focus on three key areas:

1. Strengthening local capacity in inclusive and resilient urban development, including the promotion of disaster risk reduction (DRR), climate change adaptation (CCA), and ensuring access to sustainable water supply and sanitation services.

2. Promoting low-emission local economic development strategies together with streamlined administrative and regulatory procedures, and improved infrastructure and transport systems; and

3. Expanding economic connectivity and access between urban and rural areas.

A results framework of the SURGE is presented in Figure 1.

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Figure 1. SURGE Results Framework

USAID designed SURGE such that at its end, CDI cities and local governments would have improved enabling environments for investment and private enterprise activity; the CDI regions would benefit from more rational land-use regulation and planning, better positioning them to take advantage of emerging economic opportunities and leverage local competitive advantages; and there would be stronger institutionalized foundations and technical expertise on local economic development and related urban issues.

As a flagship project under the CDI, SURGE’s logical framework links directly to the previous CDCS (2013–2019). This CDCS had three development objectives, and SURGE contributed to development objectives (DO) 1 and DO 3. Under DO 1, it contributed to two intermediate results: improved policy and regulatory environment (Sub-IR 1.1.1) and increased fiscal performance and transparency (Sub-IR 1.1.4). For DO 3, SURGE directly contributed to five intermediate results: increased disaster preparedness (Sub-IR 3.1.1), enhanced disaster prevention (Sub-IR 3.1.2), disaster mitigation measures implemented (Sub-IR 3.1.3), improved water supply and security (Sub-IR 3.2.1), and increased climate change resilience and mitigation (Sub-IR 3.2.2).

In the current CDCS, SURGE continues to contribute to the same outcomes with the former DO 1 re-grouped into DO 2, specifically: 1) IR 2.1 Regulatory Quality Improved, and IR 2.2 Government Capacity to Finance Self-Reliance Increased; and 2) those under DO 3 becoming IR 3.2 Sustainable Use of Natural Resources Strengthened, and IR 3.4 Capacity to Mitigate Risks of and Respond to Disaster Strengthened.

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Figure 2. SURGE Theory of Change and CDCS Alignment

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METHODOLOGY AND LIMITATIONS

The evaluation team examined SURGE activity in eight CDI cities using a mixed-methods approach. It encompassed an overall assessment of SURGE interventions across all the eight CDI cities2, a deeper analysis of four CDI cities3, and a focused analysis of WASH interventions that SURGE undertook in an extension area4 of a given CDI city.

The evaluation team used quantitative and qualitative tools for data collection and analysis, including a simple survey to gather feedback from a broader base of stakeholders. The analysis is descriptive, primarily presented in crosstabs and listings. The qualitative tools include document reviews, key informant interviews (KIIs), focus group discussions (FGDs), and case studies. The evaluation team interpreted qualitative data through content and thematic analysis and quantitative information through trend analysis. Finally, they used baseline data and final outputs and outcomes for comparative analysis.

STUDY POPULATION AND SAMPLING FRAME

The sampling frame for the survey in the eight CDI cities was as follows: 1) the population for the survey is Local Government Unit (LGU) personnel and officials who participated in training programs, workshops, mentoring sessions, and other interventions that SURGE introduced in each city; and 2) the sampling unit is the individual, not the office or agency that the government employees/officials represent.

As per ICMA records, 4,105 individuals from among those who received training under the SURGE activity (Components 1 and 2, and cross-cutting interventions) have email addresses and could be considered potential respondents to a survey. The evaluation team selected all individuals with an email address for the survey, with a targeted response of at least 352 individuals or 8.6 percent of the derived sample5.

DATA COLLECTION

The evaluation team used mixed methods to triangulate and analyze data from multiple sources and to ensure consistency. Given the constraints brought about by the pandemic, the field monitoring and evaluation (M&E) assistants gathered data remotely using video conferencing via Google Meet. For the eight-city survey, the evaluation team used Survey Monkey software.

The evaluation team’s technical specialists facilitated the online FGDs and KIIs with support from the field M&E assistants to ensure proper documentation. To ensure that transcriptions and codes reflected the actual answers of the FGD participants and key informants, the team conducted quality checking of audio recordings and the transcription of the recordings and checked the translation of local dialects to English.

2 Cities of Batangas, Iloilo, Cagayan de Oro, Puerto Princesa, Tagbilaran, Zamboanga, Legazpi, and General Santos.

3 Cities of Iloilo, Cagayan de Oro, Puerto Princesa, and Tagbilaran.

4 City of Marawi as an extension of Cagayan de Oro (specifically in the context of establishing city linkages).

5 This is equivalent to the derived sample of the total population computed at 95 percent confidence level and a five percent margin of error.

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Appendix B presents the data gathering instruments used for various groups and specific data gathering methods, as well as a copy of the KII and FGD consent form.

The team was able to conduct face-to-face data gathering activities in Marawi City for the case study on WASH. Appendix B also includes the data capture form for WASH.

The evaluation collected data in October and November 2021. Annex 1 presents the schedule of data gathering activities conducted.

Actual primary data gathering activities involved 490 respondents and participants coming from various groups, as indicated in Annex 1. The total number of actual respondents represents 95 percent of those intended (or targeted), as presented in Annex 2.

DATA ANALYSIS

The evaluation used the content comparison technique in qualitative data analysis whereby analysts coded transcriptions or textual data from the FGDs and KIIs line by line to generate themes around perceptions of the relevance, effectiveness, and sustainability of the SURGE interventions. The evaluation team used the NVivo software to code and categorize concepts to form themes and sub-themes.

The team analyzed the quantitative data collected from the SURGE stakeholders survey using descriptive statistics and other relevant quantitative tools.

LIMITATIONS

Lower Than Expected Participation In FGD Sessions: The number of participants in the FGDs was significantly reduced from target to actual (see Annex 1) because of the following: 1) some targeted respondents declined to participate; 2) some failed to participate because they contracted COVID-19; 3) some were not available on a set schedule or for rescheduling; 4) some decided to participate but changed their minds; and 5) some agreed to participate but then did not show up.

Mobility Restrictions: Given the government’s health protocols around COVID-19, the team members were not able to freely move around to gather information, talk to people, and observe processes and stakeholders. In particular, travel restrictions limited the ability of the evaluation team to conduct follow-up sessions or meetings.

Shortcomings of Online/Virtual Sessions (FGDs and KIIS): While online discussion sessions are an efficient method for conducting interviews, they also tend to become overly formal and reduce extemporaneous interaction. While the team was able to use structured data-gathering instruments to optimize stakeholder discussions, this limited their ability for observation and personal interaction. Also, the need to formally schedule follow-up discussions to gather more information, when necessary, posed some difficulties, which may have resulted in some incomplete information.

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FINDINGS

Evaluation findings are presented according to the three evaluation criteria of relevance, effectiveness, and sustainability. Under each evaluation criteria, this report presents specific findings for each SURGE component and sub-component.

RELEVANCE

To what extent has SURGE contributed to addressing the development challenges that motivated the PFG-CDI, the NSS/Philippine Development Plan (PDP, 2017-2022), CDCS (previous and current), and USAID's policies on urban resiliency and WASH?

COMPONENT 1: IMPROVING LOCAL CAPACITY FOR INCLUSIVE AND RESILIENT URBAN DEVELOPMENT

SURGE’s interventions to improve the institutional capacity of CDI cities for inclusive and resilient urban development contributed to USAID’s development priorities under the Cities Development Initiative- Partnership for Growth, CDCS (previous and current), and USAID’s policies on urban resilience and

WASH.

Key SURGE activities under this component that directly contributed to increasing the capacity of CDI cities for inclusive and resilient economic growth include: 1) technical assistance in mainstreaming DRR and CCA in development planning; 2) building institutional capacity in climate-resilient infrastructure planning and implementation; and 3i) increasing local capacity for delivering sustainable water supply and sanitation services.

Moreover, SURGE activities designed to enhance the urban resilience of target cities by enhancing the capacity of LGU personnel in mainstreaming CCA and DRR principles in local plans were consistent with USAID’s policy on urban resilience. SURGE’s WASH-related activities have contributed to key outcomes of the USAID water strategy, such as increasing access to sustainable water supply and improving access to sustainable sanitation.

Likewise, SURGE activities under Component 1 contributed to one of the key outcomes of the Philippine Development Plan, 2017-2022 (“individuals and communities are more resilient”). Considering that all the target CDI cities are vulnerable to natural disasters, stakeholders viewed SURGE’s initiatives to build the capacity of cities to prepare climate-resilient and risk-sensitive local plans as highly relevant to increasing the resilience of residents, especially in disaster-prone communities:

“At the start of the project, we identified and prioritized the needs and gaps of the LGU with the help of the SURGE experts. Prioritized needs were systematically addressed through the various project activities such as vulnerability assessments, updating of DRRM plans, mainstreaming of CDRA findings into the CLUP, etc.”

– CPDO Puerto Princesa City

Finally, LGU stakeholders deemed Component 1 capacity development activities as being very relevant based on the results of the Stakeholder Survey (see Table 1). Key LGU informants also viewed SURGE initiatives to be consistent with the city development priorities and responsive to the needs of the city stakeholders and residents.

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Note: 5- Extremely relevant, 4- Very relevant, 3- Somewhat relevant, 2- Not so relevant, 1- Not at all relevant

COMPONENT 2: IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT FOR LOCAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

The evaluation revealed that SURGE’s assistance was consistent with the PDP 2017-2022 as well as USAID’s directive to improve the competitiveness of second-tier cities. It directly contributed to the Mission’s DO1, Broad-Based and Inclusive Growth Accelerated and Sustained, as well as Intermediate Result (IR) 1.1, Economic Competitiveness Enhanced. The project was able to make headway on Sub IR

1.1.1 policy and regulatory framework improved and 1.1.4 fiscal performance and transparency increased, which contributed to the cities’ improved City and Municipal Competitiveness Index (CMCI) ranking.

To achieve Sub-IR 1.1.1, the SURGE activity assisted the eight CDI cities in crafting, reviewing, finalizing, and advocating for laws, policies, and procedures that support good governance as well as promoting gender and social inclusion. The legislation and its implementing rules and regulations institutionalize changes geared toward helping the CDI cities become competitive. The activity strengthened the capacities of three original cities (Batangas, Cagayan de Oro, and Iloilo) and guided the efforts of five extension cities (General Santos, Legazpi, Puerto Princesa, Tagbilaran, and Zamboanga) to comply with the mandates of the Anti-Red Tape Act 2007 as well as the Ease of Doing Business (EODB) Act 2018.

By the end of the activity, all eight CDI cities had complied with the Department of the Interior and Local Government (DILG)-Department of Trade and Industry (DTI)-Department of Information and Communications Technology (DICT) Joint Memorandum Circular (JMC) 1, s. 2016 and DILG- Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH)-DICT-DTI JMC 1, s. 2018. Compliance with business permitting and licensing system standards and national directives are two indicators of the government efficiency pillar of the CMCI.

TABLE 1. SUMMARY OF STAKEHOLDER SURVEY RATINGS ON RELEVANCE OF SURGE

COMPONENT 1 CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT INTERVENTIONS

CITY URBAN

PLANNING GHG PLANNING WASH MEAN

RATING/CITY

Batangas 4.3 4.4 4.8 4.2

Cagayan de Oro 4.0 3.7 4.0 4.0

General Santos 3.8 3.2 4.0 3.8

Iloilo 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.2

Legazpi 3.6 4.1 4.3 3.3

Puerto Princesa 3.7 5.0 4.2 4.0

Tagbilaran 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.3

Zamboanga 4.6 4.7 4.4 4.7

Overall Mean 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.3

9 | SURGE END-OF-PROJECT PERFORMANCE EVALUATION USAID.GOV

To achieve Sub IR 1.1.4, SURGE introduced capacity-building activities that helped the CDI cities to develop their Strategic Asset Management Plan (SAMP) and Strategic Financial Management Plan (SFMP).

As a pre-requisite to developing these plans, cities had to institute their Unified Land Information System (ULIS) and strengthen their Local Economic Investments Promotion Office (LEIPO).

Stakeholders who participated in SURGE’s various activities confirmed that they were very relevant to their jobs and enabled them to accomplish assigned activities that led to their city achieving an improved CMCI rank. The responses are captured in Table 2.

Note: 5- Extremely relevant, 4- Very relevant, 3- Somewhat relevant, 2- Not so relevant, 1- Not at all relevant

COMPONENT 3: IMPROVING CONNECTIVITY AND ACCESS BETWEEN URBAN AND URBAN AREAS

Regarding the relevance of activities under Component 3, SURGE activities that sought to expand economic connectivity and access between urban and rural areas were expected to contribute to: 1) CDCS development objectives (DOs), namely: broad-based and inclusive growth accelerated and sustained (DO1 - CDCS 2013-2018) and more responsive local governance (DO1 – CDCS 2019-2024);

and 2) the PDP 2017-2022 goal of more inclusive growth.

Specific activities that SURGE and its LGU stakeholders view as contributing to balanced, inclusive, and mutually supportive urban-rural development include: 1) reviewing and simplifying city regulations to reduce barriers to productive urban-rural linkages; 2) facilitating the introduction of all-cargo air services and new flight services to General Santos; 3) assisting in the preparation of tourism development plans for three CDI cities; and 4) establishing market linkages between local producers and major markets for seaweed farmers in Puerto Princesa and cassava growers in Zamboanga.

TABLE 2. RELEVANCE OF SURGE ACTIVITIES TO LGU PERSONNEL

RELEVANCE

SUB-

COMPONENT

2.1

SUB-

COMPONENT

2.2

SUB-

COMPONENT

2.3

SUB-

COMPONENT

2.4

MEAN RATING

PER CITY

Batangas 4.3 4.4 4.8 4.2 4.4

Cagayan de Oro 4.0 3.7 4.0 4.0 3.9

General Santos 3.8 3.2 4.0 3.8 3.7

Iloilo 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.1

Legazpi 3.6 4.1 4.3 3.3 3.8

Puerto Princesa 3.7 5.0 4.2 4.0 4.2

Tagbilaran 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.3 4.4

Zamboanga 4.6 4.7 4.4 4.7 4.6

Overall Mean 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.1

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Findings from the Stakeholder Survey (Table 3) reveal that SURGE activities were responsive to the stakeholders’ need for capacity strengthening in the delivery of their mandated services such as agri-fishery value chain development and tourism promotion, among others.

Note: 5- Extremely relevant, 4- Very relevant, 3- Somewhat relevant, 2- Not so relevant, 1- Not at all relevant

SURGE’s initiative to develop inter-LGU cooperation to improve coordination and exchanges between Tagbilaran City and its two neighboring municipalities by establishing the Panglao-Dauis-Tagbilaran Executive Council (PADTEC) was expected to contribute to the objectives of promoting regional agglomeration and strengthening urban-rural linkages under the NSS of the Government of the Philippines. However, the SURGE contribution to NSS objectives remains to be seen, as the concerned parties have not yet implemented with their full support some key measures to ensure the long-term sustainability of PADTEC, such as the designation of PADTEC staff, capacity building for the PADTEC secretariat and technical working committees, and the formulation of implementing rules and regulations through an ordinance, among others.

W-GDP: IMPROVING CAPACITY FOR ENTREPRENEURSHIP AMONG WOMEN IN TARGET AREAS

The U.S. Government (USG) launched the Women’s Global Development and Prosperity (W-GDP) Initiative in February 2019 to economically empower women by focusing on three pillars: women prospering in the workforce, women succeeding as entrepreneurs, and women enabled in the economy.

The W-GDP Initiative coincided with efforts of the Philippine government to empower more women. In 1989, the Philippines released Executive Order (EO) 348, approving the adoption of the “Philippine Development Plan for Women for 1989-1992.” In 2009, the Magna Carta of Women was approved, followed by PCW-DILG-DBM-NEDA JMC, as amended in 2016, to localize the implementation of the act. The Philippine Women’s Commission created the Magna Carta to ensure that women are empowered and are treated equally.

TABLE 3. SUMMARY OF STAKEHOLDER SURVEY RATINGS ON RELEVANCE OF SURGE

COMPONENT 3 CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT INTERVENTIONS

CITY VALUE CHAIN

PROMOTION

TOURISM

DEVELOPMENT

MEAN

RATING/CITY

Batangas 4.2 4.0 4.1

Cagayan de Oro 3.5 3.1 3.5

General Santos 3.8 3.3 3.7

Iloilo 3.7 3.8 3.9

Legazpi 3.2 4.8 4.2

Puerto Princesa 4.2 4.2 4.2

Tagbilaran 3.4 4.2 4.0

Zamboanga 3.8 4.1 4.0

Overall rating 3.7 3.6 3.9

11 | SURGE END-OF-PROJECT PERFORMANCE EVALUATION USAID.GOV

The Department of Trade and Industry (DTI), through its Bureau of Small and Medium Enterprise Development (BSMED), is supporting women entrepreneurs who dominate the micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSME) sector. The DTI reported that 64 percent of MSMEs helped through their Negosyo centers are women.

The SURGE program design integrated gender in all activities. In SURGE’s initial work plan, a separate section detailed gender mainstreaming activities. Subsequently, SURGE added a gender-related output indicator to monitor its gender efforts. Output indicator 4.2.1 (later identified as 4.1) focused on the number of laws, policies, or procedures that were drafted, proposed, or adopted to promote gender equality at the regional, national, and local levels.

The W-GDP focus fits well into SURGE’s gender mainstreaming efforts. The Year 5 (October 2019 – September 2020) work plan incorporated both gender activities and output indicators. The first set of gender activities under this work plan was baseline assessments and FGDs in the CDI cities coupled with secondary research on the state of women entrepreneurs in the Philippines.

As evidenced by testimonials of women beneficiaries as well as the results of the evaluation survey, SURGE’s gender-related activities were seen as helpful and timely. The webinars, mentoring, and coaching sessions conducted virtually during the nearly two-year COVID-19-related lockdown and movement restrictions period enlightened women entrepreneurs and encouraged them to innovate within their businesses.

EFFECTIVENESS

To what extent did SURGE achieve the three outcomes of improving local urban development processes, promoting local economic development, and expanding connectivity and access between urban and rural areas?

COMPONENT 1: IMPROVING LOCAL CAPACITY FOR INCLUSIVE AND RESILIENT URBAN DEVELOPMENT

Component 1 seeks to strengthen the capacity of target CDI cities for inclusive and resilient urban development through the implementation of three sub-components: Sub-component 1.1 - Strengthening local capacity in urban development, including the promotion of disaster risk reduction and preparedness and improving climate-resilient land-use planning and development following international best practices; Sub-component 1.2 - Improving local climate resilient infrastructure planning, financing and implementation; and Sub-component 1.3 - Increasing access to sustainable water supply and sanitation services.

For the most part, SURGE surpassed all its life-of-project extension indicator targets identified in SURGE’s AMELP, revised in 2020. SURGE support to enhance the skills of local planners in mainstreaming climate resilience and disaster risk reduction led to the following results for this component: 1) adoption of risk-sensitive, socially inclusive, and gender-responsive local development plans in compliance with national laws; 2) integration of CCA and DRR in WASH infrastructure planning and implementation; and 3) promotion of low emission development strategies in local development planning and investment programming.

SUBCOMPONENT 1.1 - STRENGTHENING LOCAL CAPACITY IN URBAN DEVELOPMENT,

INCLUDING THE PROMOTION OF DISASTER RISK REDUCTION AND PREPAREDNESS AND

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IMPROVING CLIMATE-RESILIENT LAND-USE PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT FOLLOWING

INTERNATIONAL BEST PRACTICES.

This sub-component focused on strengthening the capacity of target CDI cities to identify, assess, plan, and implement activities for low-emission economic growth, and to mainstream climate change adaptation, disaster risk reduction, and low-emission economic development (LED) strategies into all aspects of city governance.

FINDING 1: SURGE assisted seven CDI cities (Batangas, Cagayan de Oro, General Santos, Iloilo, Puerto Princesa, Tagbilaran, and Zamboanga) in updating their Comprehensive Land Use Plans (CLUPs) with an emphasis on mainstreaming climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction (a requirement for approval by the DHSUD of updated CLUPs).

Under Philippine law, LGUs must prepare and update their CLUPs on a 10-year cycle. Upon approval of the DHSUD, City Legislative Councils enact the CLUPs in a Zoning Ordinance, which then serve as the primary basis for regulating the use of land resources within the city jurisdiction. CLUPs also serve as the framework for the different development plans required of LGUs under national laws and policies such as the Comprehensive Development Plan under the Local Government Code of 1992, Local Climate Change Adaptation Plan under the Climate Change Act of 2009, and the Local Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (DRRM) Plan under the DRRM Act of 2010.

Based on the urban development planning capacity assessments in 2016, SURGE provided training and mentoring sessions to enhance the skills of key LGU personnel on Vulnerability Assessment (VA), DRRM Planning, Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment (CDRA), Local Climate Change Adaptation Planning (LCCAP) and to update mandated local development plans. Overall, LGU stakeholders found SURGE interventions to be very effective in enhancing their knowledge and skills (mean rating was 4.2 for planning-related training where 1 is not effective at all and 5 is extremely effective). Interviews with LGU planning personnel confirmed the effectiveness of SURGE interventions in increasing their knowledge and skills, particularly in mainstreaming CCA and DRR in local development plans. SURGE also conducted a Geographic Information System (GIS) capacity needs assessment and an orientation workshop on the use of GIS-generated maps in local development planning. SURGE conducted a pilot of a web-based geo-portal for storing and sharing urban planning and management information in Zamboanga City. Competing LGU priorities hampered replication of this activity in other cities.

With…