72038819RFI00001_Attachment_2.pdf

DISCLAIMER: THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THIS PUBLICATION DO NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT THE VIEWS OF THE UNITED STATES

AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT OR THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT.

RAPID EDUCATION & RISK ANALYSIS

COX’S BAZAR

October 2018

CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 5

INTRODUCTION 6

RERA METHODOLOGY 7

CONTEXT: NATIONAL LEVEL 14

CONTEXT: COX’S BAZAR DISTRICT 19

CONTEXT: THE EDUCATION SECTOR 28

RERA FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS 35

CONCLUSIONS 58

RECOMMENDATIONS 62

ANNEX 64

ENDNOTES 66

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

PURPOSE

USAID/Bangladesh commissioned a Rapid Education and Risk Analysis (RERA) to understand the impact of the Rohingya influx on pre-primary through secondary education in Bangladeshi schools in Cox’s Bazar. The specific objectives of the RERA were to (i) gain a broader understanding of the risks, needs, assets, and capacities of the education sector in Cox’s Bazar, and (ii) inform education programming to support Bangladeshis in Cox’s Bazar, particularly host and impacted communities.

METHODOLOGY

A RERA is a “good enough” qualitative situation analysis that examines the education sector, the learners, and the community as a dynamic system of multiple contextual risks and assets. The RERA in Cox’s Bazar was conducted in October 2018 and focused on the situation of Bangladeshis in a limited, purposive primary data sample of schools in 32 communities in 6 upazilas (sub-districts) across Cox’s Bazar: Ukhiya, Teknaf, Ramu, Cox’s Bazar Sadar, Maheshkhali, and Pekua. The RERA reached 900 respondents through 141 focus group discussions and 33 key informant interviews.

CONTEXT

The rapid influx of more than 727,0001 Rohingya people from Myanmar since August 2017 presented a shock to the communities in Cox’s Bazar, a diverse district already under significant stress. Cox’s Bazar is one of Bangladesh’s poorest and least disaster-resilient districts. Prior to the Rohingya influx, education outcomes in Cox’s Bazar were already among the lowest in the country. Schools across the district had a history of under-enrollment and poor retention, and the majority of heads of household had not received any education. Throughout Cox’s Bazar, these schools are feeling the impacts of the Rohingya influx.

KEY CONCLUSIONS

Overall conclusion: The latest Rohingya influx has deepened the plight of already struggling school communities throughout Cox’s Bazar district.

EDUCATION

School communities have demonstrated abundant humanitarian goodwill toward the arriving Rohingya refugees.

• Communities still express empathy for and solidarity with the Rohingya people, drawing on their shared religious and cultural foundations.

• In the aftermath of the influx, schools provided substantial space and land as temporary shelters for the Rohingya people.

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The quality of education in Cox’s Bazar is declining.

• Education quality was weak before and has been further weakened by increased student-teacher ratios and reduced teaching time.

• Schools are losing teachers to new employment opportunities with the humanitarian organizations assisting with the Rohingya influx, and as a result there is a teacher shortage.

The influx has impacted access to education, especially for female students.

• Increased traffic, travel time, and the cost of travel negatively impact access to school.

• Increased road traffic is especially intimidating to girls who face harassment and intimidation.

• Early marriage may be increasing as parents are less able to send their daughters to secondary school due to increases in poverty.

• An increased police presence can compromise females’ sense of safety in impacted schools.

Recent gains in school retention are now being reversed.

• Primary and secondary school enrollment rates are slipping.

• Dropout rates are increasing due to logistical challenges, financial barriers, opportunities for employment with humanitarian organizations, and general insecurity.

The influx disproportionately impacted the poor and the most marginalized.

• Rising costs of commodities and transportation impacted the affordability and opportunity cost of education.

• More students are coming to school hungry as families are cutting back on food budgets and reducing their overall caloric intake.

• Students with disabilities may have reduced teacher attention.

CONTEXTUAL RISKS

The influx is exacerbating the district’s pre-existing contextual risks.

• Respondents perceive rising crime and drug trafficking.

• The influx has accelerated environmental degradation, such as through deforestation, and increased exposure to mudslides and erosion.

• If there were a disaster, communities appear under-prepared to meet both their own needs and the needs of the Rohingya community in school shelters.

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School communities express growing frustration over the impact of the Rohingya influx.

• Communities express enormous humanitarian goodwill and empathy for the plight of the Rohingya people, but their generosity is repeatedly tested as they see their communities experience ongoing degradation to their quality of life.

• Communities perceive the humanitarian focus on the Rohingya as unfairly overlooking them and the costs of the influx they must bear.

SCHOOL COMMUNITY RESILIENCE

School communities are insufficiently resilient to the range of increasing risks.

• School infrastructure that was already inadequate and has been further strained by the influx and is in need of repairs. Schools double as cyclone shelters, which can result in schooling being interrupted during disasters.

• School preparedness and disaster risk-reduction efforts are insufficient and were developed for the pre-influx reality.

• Respondents shared that there is uneven collaboration between the schools, parents, School Management Committees, and Disaster Management Committees.

• Intra- and inter-community cohesion and goodwill are assets to build on, but insights from the sample show that they are at risk of breaking down if not deliberately bolstered.

RECOMMENDATIONS

STUDENT ACCESS AND LEARNING

• Ensure that the Fourth Primary Education Development Program (PEDP4) is fully implemented in Cox’s Bazar district, particularly as it relates to school quality and education during emergencies.

• Target programming to improve access to and quality of education, especially for girls, the poor, children with disabilities, and other marginalized groups.

• Support school feeding programs to counteract the increased food insecurity in the district.

• Expand cash stipend programs for economically vulnerable primary and secondary students and students with disabilities, to offset the economic incentives to drop out of school to help their families financially.

• Improve schools’ infrastructure, including washroom facilities and classrooms.

• Work with out-of-school and at-risk populations to prevent dropout and provide alternate pathways to certified learning.

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• Partner with local organizations and schools to develop public awareness campaigns to reduce harassment and intimidation of girls and to establish safe routes to and from school.

• Support governmental partners in enhancing local police officers’ use of community-based approaches, to improve confidence and trust between police and school communities.

TEACHERS

• Advocate for teacher placements in government schools, and consider measures to create incentives for teachers to live and work in remote or more challenging schools.

• Provide cash assistance and food bonuses for economically vulnerable para-teachers, and supplement assistance programs for government teachers, as necessary.

• Supplement teacher recruitment in primary and secondary schools, particularly for early-grade para-teachers who speak Chittagonian.

• Provide teacher training on the delivery of basic skills instruction, social-emotional learning, social cohesion, and student-led disaster-risk reduction.

SCHOOL COMMUNITY RESILIENCE

• Create resilience profiles of school communities across the district.

• Conduct assessments with school communities to identify back-up learning environments and shelters in the case of a natural disaster.

• Support the rehabilitation and/or construction of schools serving as shelters in the highest-risk communities, including measures to ensure that facilities are available and accessible for persons with disabilities, girls, and women.

• Carry out a review of school-based participatory disaster risk-reduction guidance and methodologies.

• Provide small grants for community-based and local organizations to enhance bottom-up school community collaboration and planning within an overall framework of school community resilience, including ways to improve the functioning of School Management Committees.

CONFLICT SENSITIVITY

• To minimize the risk of exacerbating tension and grievances in Cox’s Bazar district, development and humanitarian partners should carry out conflict sensitivity self-assessments and impact assessments to gauge the extent to which staff understand conflict sensitivity, the conflict sensitivity of their interventions, and to identify options for corrective action.

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The Rapid Education and Risk Analysis: Cox’s Bazar report represents a broad and intensive collaboration between USAID/Bangladesh, USAID/Washington, the Ministry of Primary and Mass Education, and selected school communities in Cox’s Bazar district.

Several people played key roles in the RERA exercise and made important contributions to this report.

USAID/Bangladesh Mission Director Derrick Brown and Deputy Mission Director Zeinah Salahi offered Mission-wide leadership to the exercise. Kate Maloney, Tarek Ahmed, and Muhammad Moinuddin at USAID/Bangladesh provided strategic direction and guidance to all phases of the RERA, from conceptualization and design to facilitating outreach to partners, participating in fieldwork, and contributing substantive comments to the final report. Ashley Henderson and Rebecca Rhodes at USAID/Washington joined the RERA in the field and offered substantive guidance and input to the entire exercise. Alauddin Bhuiyan at the Ministry of Primary and Mass Education served as a crucial liaison at the ministry, offering guidance and joining data collection in the field. Planning, recruitment, and budgetary guidance and support were carried out by Corrie Sutherland at Dexis Consulting Group.

Finally, the process benefited from the contributions of a group of advisors—James Jennings, Colette Chabbott, and Gwendolyn Heaner—who provided ongoing support on data collection and analysis and offered substantive input to the RERA methodology, planning, and final report.

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INTRODUCTION

The rapid influx of more than 727,000 Rohingya people from Myanmar since August 2017 has dramatically impacted the surrounding communities in Cox’s Bazar, including in the delivery of and access to education. Prior to the influx, primary education outcomes in Cox’s Bazar were among the lowest nationwide. There are indications that the Rohingya influx has brought additional stress to the Bangladeshi school communities in Cox’s Bazar.

Cox’s Bazar comprises eight upazilas (sub-districts), but to date donor support to Bangladeshis in response to the Rohingya crisis has focused solely on the two upazilas closest to the camps, Teknaf and Ukhiya, which have most immediately experienced the influx. USAID/Bangladesh, the Ministry of Primary and Mass Education, and international partners have highlighted the urgent need for more information on the situation of schools in the communities hosting Rohingya refugees (“host communities”) in Teknaf and Ukhiya, as well as the other upazilas (“impacted communities”) in Cox’s Bazar.

USAID/Bangladesh commissioned a Rapid Education and Risk Analysis (RERA)2 to provide an understanding of the impact of the Rohingya influx on pre-primary through secondary education in Bangladeshi schools in Cox’s Bazar. The RERA focused exclusively on the education of Bangladeshis in a sample of upazilas across Cox’s Bazar. The RERA had two specific objectives:

1. Gain a broader understanding of the risks, needs, assets, and capacities of the education sector in Cox’s Bazar; and

2. Inform education programming to support Bangladeshis in Cox’s Bazar.

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RAPID EDUCATION AND RISK ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

RESEARCH QUESTIONS

Six main research questions guided the RERA:

• What is the impact of the Rohingya influx on government and non-government schooling for Bangladeshi students in Cox’s Bazar at the pre-primary, primary, secondary, and technical-vocational levels?

• What is the status of education access, the learning environment, teaching and learning, teachers and other education personnel, education policy, and sector coordination in Cox’s Bazar?

• What is the context for key cross-cutting issues, including gender, inclusive education for children with disabilities, and student well-being (including social-emotional learning)?

• What are the main contextual risks in Cox’s Bazar?

• What is the interaction between the contextual risks and the education sector?

• What resilience factors are in place that influence access to and the safety of quality education? How can these factors be strengthened?

These research questions provided a framework within which more specific questions were designed for use in focus group discussions and key informant interviews. The RERA Team prioritized and adapted questions from the RERA Toolkit, based on the desk review’s determination of the main contextual risks in Cox’s Bazar. The questions were then refined in consultation with USAID, translated to Bangla and Chittagonian, tested with data collectors and translators, back-translated, and piloted in focus group discussions in Cox’s Bazar.

TIMEFRAME

Planning for the RERA ran from September 13 to October 8, 2018. Primary data collection fieldwork was conducted on October 10–16, with follow-up key informant interviews and focus group discussions held through October 31. Inception briefings were held with the USAID Mission, the Ministry of Primary and Mass Education, development partners, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and civil society representatives on October 7 and 8, and end-of-fieldwork validation consultations on preliminary results were conducted with the same stakeholders on October 17 and 18. Data analysis, data synthesis, and final report writing were carried out from October 17 to December 31.

RERA TEAM

The RERA Team represented a unique collaboration between USAID/Bangladesh, USAID/Washington, the Ministry of Primary and Mass Education, and international and local partners. The core members of the RERA Team included James Rogan (Team Leader), Ahsan Habib (Senior Education Specialist), Shahriar Shafiq (Education Specialist), Nurul Bagmer (Consultant), and Marie Pace (Conflict Specialist).

Additional RERA Team participants were Kate Maloney (Education Team Leader, USAID/Bangladesh), 8 | RAPID EDUCATION AND RISK ANALYSIS: COX’S BAZAR USAID.GOV

Tarek Ahmed (Education Team, USAID/Bangladesh), Alauddin Bhuiyan (Ministry of Primary and Mass Education), Ashley Henderson (Education Specialist, USAID/Washington), and Rebecca Rhodes (Team Lead, Reading and Literacy Team, USAID/Washington).

Corrie Sutherland, Senior Project Associate at Dexis Consulting Group, provided procurement, recruitment, contracting, and financial services for the RERA through Dexis’s Education Support Initiative. Exterion LLC was contracted to provide team leadership for the RERA.

A group of advisors provided strategic and expert review and input into the RERA methodology and final report: James Jennings, Colette Chabbott, and Gwendolyn Heaner. Two advisors worked remotely;

one was based in Bangladesh.

The Institute of Social Business provided the following data collection and translation specialists:

Abdullah al Mansur, Achia Islam Shaba, Amena Momtahena, Samia Nasir, Md. Anamul Hoque, AKM Mahfooz ul Huq, Shafiullah Kawsar, Ridwan Ripon, Md. Elahi Rawshan, Amit Hasan, M.A. Hannan, Trisha Chakma, Sajeda Yasmin, Salahuddin Pappu, Tribeni Chakma, Fatema Khanon Baby, Hosainur Mamun, Shahadat Kabir, Md. Akbar Ali, Nurul Alam, Sabuj Hosen, Jannatul Ferdous, Didar Hossain, and Nasrin Jahan Mukta.

Data entry services were provided by Saleh Ahmed Efad, Tasfia Noor, Kausar Ahmed Opu, Alpona Shirin, Shakhaoat Hossain Sohagh, Salman Siddique, and Jotirmoy Bose Joy, on behalf of Bengal Creative Media, Ltd.

FIELDWORK PLANNING

DATA COLLECTION TOOLS

The RERA followed a qualitative data collection approach, using the methods detailed in Table 1.

TABLE 1: DATA COLLECTION TOOLS

TOOL/

METHOD DESCRIPTION RESPONDENTS/SOURCES

Key Informant Interview

Key informant interviews provide an overview of the situation and in-depth expertise. Purposive sampling was used to reach respondents who hold particular expertise and who could offer divergent and diverse views. Key informant interviews also allowed snowballing to identify additional informants, background documents, and verification of findings from focus group discussions. Open-ended discussion questions were developed for the interviews, but the format also allowed flexibility for in-depth probing.

Head teachers, district education officials, Government of Bangladesh officials, international and local NGOs, international organizations, experts

Focus Group Discussion

Open-ended discussion questions were developed for each respondent type (students, parents and community members, teachers), and some questions were asked of all respondent types. During the focus group discussions, the

Teachers, students, community members, parents, out-of-school youth

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data collection team coded responses mentioned by the group, based on predetermined response types, and took detailed notes (see LIMITATIONS, below).

This coding served two purposes: (1) to encourage the data collection team to probe for different types of responses within a group, and (2) once the data were cleaned, to enable numerical analysis (not to be confused with quantitative analysis, given the method of collection, which was not representative or close-ended) of the data to compare across communities, genders, group types, etc.

Desk Review Desk review refers to the identification and analysis of secondary sources to adapt the RERA design and methodology to the RERA purpose and local context. This includes identifying the primary data collection sites, prioritizing and adjusting the main research questions and specific research questions for focus group discussions and key informant interviews, and drafting key sections of the final report. Desk review also helps identify key informants and triangulates primary data collection responses.

Existing resilience analyses, disaster assessments, situation assessments, conflict analyses, humanitarian needs assessments, response plans, development plans, country analytical reports, government reports and data, disaster data, program and project reports, journal articles

SAMPLE SITE SELECTION

The process of selecting primary data collection sites occurred in three steps. First, the RERA Team secured permission and support from the Ministry of Primary and Mass Education to carry out data collection in schools in Cox’s Bazar. Second, the RERA Team, in consultation with USAID/Bangladesh, determined the upazilas for primary data collection, based on a desk review of contextual risk factors and educational outcomes, with the goal of offering a diverse, district-wide perspective. Third, the RERA Team identified school communities at the union level that would offer broad insights into each upazila and the situation of host and impacted school communities. This step involved advance site visits by members of the RERA Team and collaboration and consultation with national and district education officials. Sites within each union where different school types were located were ultimately chosen.

SITE LOCATIONS AND TYPES

Data collection took place across the Cox’s Bazar district.

Sites were selected in 32 communities in Ukhiya, Teknaf, Ramu, Cox’s Bazar Sadar, Maheshkhali, and Pekua. Sites were located in two unions in Ukhiya, Teknaf, and Cox’s Bazar Sadar, and in one union in Maheshkhali, Pekua, and Ramu (see Figure 1). The types of schools included multiple levels (pre-primary, primary, secondary, and technical-vocational) and different types of

FIGURE 1: RERA SAMPLE SITES

(in green)

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service providers (government, non-government, and madrasah). A table laying out the school community sites, key factors informing their selection, and school types selected for primary data collection fieldwork is included in the Annex.

TABLE 2: KEY INFORMANT INTERVIEWS AND FOCUS GROUP DISCUSSIONS

CONDUCTED, BY TYPE OF LEARNING CENTER AND RESPONDENT

TYPE OF

LEARNING

CENTER

HEAD

TEACHER

(KEY

INFORMANT

INTERVIEWS)

PARENTS AND

COMMUNITY

MEMBERS

(FOCUS

GROUPS)

STUDENTS

(FOCUS

GROUPS)

TEACHERS

(FOCUS

GROUPS)

OTHERS

(E.G., DIRECTORS)

(KEY

INFORMANT

INTERVIEWS)

TOTAL

INTERVIEWS

Pre-primary school 2 2

Non-government primary school

1 1 2 1 5

Government primary school 8 9 19 12 1 49

Secondary school (private)

6 7 16 16 45

Madrasah school (K–12) 7 6 15 15 43

NGO (pre-primary school)

4 4

BRAC

Adolescent Development Centre

4 2 6

Upazila Resource Centre

2 1 3

Technical and Vocational Education and Training system (TVET)

3 1 8 7 19

Total interviews and focus groups

27 24 66 51 8 176

Total people reached 27 144 396 312 8 881

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RESPONDENT SELECTION

Key informants were selected in two steps:

• The first group of key informants were identified by the RERA Team and USAID partners to provide contextual information for the desk review. A diverse array of experts were sought to cover education, disaster risk, crime, conflict, resilience, and humanitarian action.

• Additional key informants were selected in conversations with local and international partners before and during fieldwork.

Participants for focus group discussions were identified in collaboration with school head teachers. The RERA Team guided head teachers in identifying a diverse range of students and teachers to participate in each focus group discussion. Discussions were primarily conducted in either Bangla or Chittagonian (or, in some instances, Chakma), reflecting the language used by the participants. Additional key informant interviews with government officials, international and local experts, international organizations, and NGOs were also held, off-site from school communities.

DATA COLLECTION

DATA COLLECTOR SELECTION AND TRAINING

Bangladeshi data collectors with qualitative data collection experience were contracted through a local firm to support the RERA Team. Data collectors worked as both facilitators and note-takers; they included males and females, and they spoke Bangla, Chittagonian, and/or Chakma. Many came from Cox’s Bazar district.

The RERA Team organized a full-day training for local data collectors and translators in Cox’s Bazar Sadar. The training covered the RERA methodology, research questions, discussion protocols, facilitation, note-taking, and ethics, and included time for pilot focus group discussions with students at a madrasah in Cox’s Bazar. Importantly, the training included a session to discuss and refine the translations and objectives of the questions to be used in the focus group discussions.

DATA ENTRY

Given the timeframe of the RERA, a team of data entry specialists was contracted to enter data daily and perform quality control through feedback loops. The data entry team received notes from the data collection fieldwork teams each afternoon, translated the notes into English, and entered them into an Excel database. RERA Team members met with the data entry specialists each afternoon to receive feedback, answer questions on the quality of the notes, and address any issues that required correction or attention.

SENSITIVITY

CONFLICT SENSITIVITY

Conflict sensitivity was applied to all aspects of the RERA. The RERA Team was 40% female and 50% Bangladeshi. Two RERA Team members were experienced conflict sensitivity specialists. The RERA

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Team remotely conducted a conflict sensitivity self-assessment. Recruitment and deployment of fieldwork teams factored in gender, local language capabilities, identity, and place of origin. Research questions were developed and translated after iterated vetting with local experts on the RERA Team and data collectors for appropriateness and sensitivity. Daily RERA Team debriefs were conducted with data collection and data entry teams to provide constant feedback loops on methodology, approach, and any issues related to conflict sensitivity, in order to take corrective action the next day.

ETHICS

Because the RERA engages vulnerable populations and young people on topics of a sensitive nature, it must conform to the highest ethical standards. The short planning timeframe required the RERA Team to create and consult an ad hoc ethics review panel to offer expert feedback on the ethical adherence of the RERA methodology and the institutional review board exemption.3 The panel was composed of two preeminent “education in emergencies” scholars and practitioners with strong research ethics credentials.4 The RERA Team submitted its design, protocols, and responses to standard ethics questions to the panel and received feedback.

The RERA Team used a two-step verbal informed consent process. During the school community site planning process, the RERA Team explained to school head teachers the process for obtaining informed consent from parents and students. Then, as part of the introduction to each focus group discussion, the RERA Team facilitator discussed informed consent with young participants, and explained the steps taken to ensure that the process was voluntary and anonymous. The RERA Team also identified an independent school psychologist to advise on situations where a discussion or interview surfaced cases of violence or abuse.

LIMITATIONS

As a “good enough” rapid situation analysis, the RERA methodology makes deliberate trade-offs between speed and rigor. Due to its rapid nature, the RERA methodology does not allow for generalizable, representative findings, but instead provides stakeholders with a targeted snapshot of the interaction between the education sector and contextual risks. This analysis is sufficiently systematic to inform preliminary decisions about education programming, particularly in volatile and complex contexts.

The RERA uses a purposive,5 limited primary data sample to provide in-depth information on a targeted group. This means that the RERA Team’s selection of locations and informants was vulnerable to bias.

The sample was limited to 32 school communities across six upazilas, and was therefore small enough that the data cannot be considered representative of the wider population beyond the sampled group— for instance, of an entire upazila or the entire Cox’s Bazar district.

As a qualitative exercise, the RERA’s findings cannot determine causal relationships—such as a causal relationship between the challenges and risks in the area and the learning outcomes of students.

During the primary data collection, the RERA used field-based coding for open-ended focus group discussion questions, and data collectors coded the responses in real time. However, inconsistencies and/or inaccuracies appeared across data collection teams. To mitigate this issue, the RERA Team analyzed notes for each interview and discussion, basing the final analysis on the prevalence of a type of

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response during an entire interview or discussion, not only during one question. Possibly due to a translation issue, the participation of parents in focus group discussions was also more limited than anticipated.6

Responses to questions may have been subject to social desirability or “halo bias”—the tendency among respondents to under-report socially undesirable answers and alter their responses to approximate what they perceive as the social norm. Nearly all focus group discussions were held at schools. The extent to which student respondents shared their true opinions may have varied for questions that called on them to assess the attitudes and perceptions of their peers, teachers, or head teachers— people on whom they depend for their academic performance reviews and the provision of their education. The RERA Team also needed to exercise particular care when discussing the influx of Rohingya, as this often appeared to be a delicate topic. To mitigate these limitations, the RERA Team provided appropriate confidentiality and anonymity assurances to all respondents through an informed consent process, sought privacy where possible, and coached facilitators on data protection protocols and how to facilitate discussions on sensitive topics.

Operational access constraints due to a tropical storm prevented the RERA Team from accessing a second school community site in Maheshkhali. The RERA Team took this as an opportunity to re-deploy data collectors to a school community site in the neighboring upazila of Pekua. Across all sites, traffic and safety issues required the RERA Team to stop school community site fieldwork by 15:00.

The use of local translation during and after primary data collection may have impacted the depth and quality of the data. Primary data collection was conducted in local languages (Bangla and/or Chittagonian), recorded in Bangla, and then translated into English for entry into the RERA database.

Training for local data collectors was limited to one day. One more day would have allowed focus group simulations, testing and further refining of data collection tools, and more reflection and internalization of learning from the pilot focus group discussions. This would have surfaced further training needs among the data collection teams and allowed local teams to carry out a conflict sensitivity self-assessment.

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CONTEXT: NATIONAL LEVEL

COUNTRY SNAPSHOT

Bangladesh is a unique development success story, though it also has persisting challenges. The country emerged from its war of independence in 1971 as the second-poorest country in the world, achieving lower-middle-income status in 2015. This achievement in poverty reduction is paralleled by notable gains in life expectancy, access to education, and per capita food production.7,8 At the same time, inequality is rising, and nearly one in three people still live in poverty, with limited access to basic social services.

These development challenges are compounded by the country’s vulnerability to natural hazards. The country sits at the intersection of three major river basins, with flat deltaic topography and low elevation. These features make Bangladesh one of the highest disaster-risk countries globally.

Bangladesh is also at an important crossroads in its democratic evolution. An increase in targeted extremist attacks and government response is having negative impact on the population’s ability to engage in open, democratic dialogue and political competition. The influx of over 720,000 Rohingya people from Myanmar since August 2017 has had a major impact on Cox’s Bazar, one of the country’s poorest, most diverse, and least resilient districts.

MAIN CONTEXTUAL RISKS IN BANGLADESH

NATURAL HAZARDS

Bangladesh’s flat, low-lying topography and climatic features, combined with high population density and widespread poverty, make it highly susceptible to natural hazards, including floods, drought, salinity, cyclones, landslides, and earthquakes. While small-scale flooding in Bangladesh has been historically beneficial to agriculture, more severe flooding has displaced millions.9 Two-thirds of the country is less than 5 meters above sea level, and floods increasingly inundate homes, destroy farm production, close businesses, and shut down public infrastructure. Erosion leads to an annual loss of about 10,000 hectares of land and weakens natural coastal defenses and aquatic ecosystems.10 Environmental degradation has also increased the country’s disaster risk.11

Disasters can have devastating effects on the nation’s agriculture, water supply, food resources, health, and ability to provide shelter.12 According to the World Bank, more than 80% of the population is potentially exposed to floods, earthquakes, and drought, and more than 70% are exposed to cyclones.

Cyclones and associated storm surges and floods have led to almost all the nearly 520,000 disaster

TABLE 3: BANGLADESH MULTI-HAZARD RISK RANKING

EARTHQUAKE FLOOD TSUNAMI CYCLONE DROUGHT HUMAN

8.7* 10 8.5 7 5.1 6.5

* 1 = low risk, 10 = high risk Source: INFORM Index 2017.

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deaths recorded over the past 40 years. On average, the country experiences severe tropical cyclones every three years. Severe flooding occurs every four to five years and covers 60% of the land mass.13

Bangladesh is also located in a seismically active and high-risk region, positioned at the juncture of several active tectonic plate boundaries.14 High population density, compounded by rapid and unplanned urbanization, increases its vulnerability to seismic events.15 Recent research found that Bangladesh is sitting atop a previously hidden megathrust fault that could create an earthquake of a magnitude up to 9.0.16

CLIMATE CHANGE

Bangladesh ranks within the top 10 countries in the world that are most vulnerable to climate change.18 High tides in Bangladesh are increasing 10 times more rapidly than the global average. Sea surface temperatures in the shallow Bay of Bengal have significantly increased, causing the fastest recorded sea level rises on record in the world. Storms have become fiercer and more frequent, pushing water up the delta’s rivers from the sea. Melting glaciers and snowpack in the Himalayas swells the rivers flowing into Bangladesh. The intruding sea has contaminated groundwater, which supplies drinking water for coastal regions, also critically degrading farmland and forests.

Riverbank erosion displaces between 50,000 and 200,000 people annually, with over 4 million island “char dwellers” at immediate risk.19

Climate change is beginning to drive massive social change, as millions of people migrate from affected areas. This displacement and migration will further overstretch inadequate infrastructure, services, and governance systems. In the future, Bangladesh may grapple with the displacement of as much as 20% of the population due to rising sea levels.20 Such scenarios increase the risk of a collapse in living standards, fissures in social cohesion, and increases in social disorder.21

ARSENIC CONTAMINATION

Arsenic contamination is a naturally occurring endemic hazard in Bangladesh. Soils contain high levels of arsenic, and the use of groundwater for irrigation and drinking puts large numbers of the population at serious risk of chronic illness.22 Arsenic is found in water from hand-pumped, mostly shallow, tube wells throughout rural Bangladesh.23

INFECTIOUS AND COMMUNICABLE DISEASES

Bangladesh experiences repeated spread of communicable diseases, including cholera, malaria, and dengue fever. The prevalence of disease is intensified by recurrent flooding, which enhances the

FIGURE 2: BANGLADESH MULTI-HAZARD ZONES17

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likelihood of disease transmission. Infectious and communicable diseases peak during flood incidents.

The sanitation infrastructure is inadequate for the population; nearly 45% of Bangladeshis do not have access to safe drinking water, thus enhancing the risk of disease transmission.24

CRIME

Bangladesh’s geography makes it a prime location for international trafficking in arms, humans, and other goods, including drugs.25 There is evidence of low levels of weapons proliferation in the country, with links to transnational flows of illicit trade.26 Human trafficking is a serious problem, particularly for border areas, where men, women, and children are lured into high-risk migrant labor opportunities with few protections.27 Several types of drugs are commonly used in Bangladesh, including phensedyl, heroin, marijuana, and “yaba” (a mixture of methamphetamine and caffeine, originating principally from Myanmar).28

POLITICAL SPACE

Bangladesh is at a crossroads in its democratic evolution. The 2014 and 2018 elections represented significant watersheds for the country’s political future.29 Beginning in the 1990s, political power alternated between the two major political parties: the Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). While relations within and between these political parties have always been tense, through 2009 the system resulted in a peaceful turnover of power that included competitive local elections.30,31

The 2014 elections marked a significant change in two-party rule. When the Awami League government and the BNP disagreed over the process for holding free and fair elections, the BNP and other opposition parties staged blockades and demonstrations, but the Awami League ultimately won uncontested.32 Since then, there has been an upsurge of violent displays of opposition, triggering a firm government crackdown.33 The December 2018 elections won by the Awami League were marked by reports of attacks on the political opposition and their supporters.34,35 These events may be changing the political space for multi-party competition, as well as the informal processes by which elites have traditionally made deals across the political divide to support social progress. Any loss of informal deal-making among political elites threatens a key source of political stability for the country, which can undermine efforts to build and maintain sources of social cohesion and resilience to the multiple contextual risks the country faces.

Bangladesh has a solid foundation for social cohesion and peaceful coexistence in its religious and secular traditions.36 The form of Islam practiced historically by the majority of Muslims is influenced by Sufism, which emphasizes tolerance, moderation, and pluralism.37 However, extremist attacks have captured international media attention and raised concerns about a potential rise in extremism in Bangladesh, which could put this foundation at risk.38

KEY CROSS-CUTTING ISSUES

GENDER

Bangladesh is internationally recognized for its progress on a number of gender indicators, including parity in education access and a decline in maternal mortality.39 These gains are linked to a strong legal and policy framework guaranteeing women’s rights and to the constitution, which recognizes equal

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rights for women and men in the public sphere.40 Bangladesh also has a significant history of women’s movements organizing to claim their rights.41 Beginning in 2014, the government actively began to link its efforts to prevent violent extremism to initiatives that address women’s empowerment and the root causes of poverty. Research suggests that these efforts—which included a focus on education for girls— have had success.42

Yet, despite this clear progress, gender discrimination is an ongoing reality that presents many obstacles for women and girls in Bangladesh.43 Girls are commonly considered to be financial burdens on their families, and consequently, from the time they are born, families invest less in girls’ health and education.

Early marriage is another challenge that threatens girls’ education, mobility, health, and safety.44 While early marriage has decreased over the last 30 years, Bangladesh continues to have one of the highest rates of marriage worldwide for girls under 15 (22%), and 59% of girls are married before the age of 18.45

Women are also vulnerable to dowry-related violence, domestic violence, rape, human trafficking, and sexual harassment (commonly called “eve teasing”). Most domestic violence is dowry-related. Two out of three married women in Bangladesh have experienced some form of partner violence in their lifetime, and more than half within the last 12 months.46 Social taboos mean that most women suffer dowry-related violence in silence.47

PERSONS WITH DISABILITIES

A full understanding of the situation of people living with disabilities is limited, due to unavailable or variable statistics. The 2011 national census shows that 1.4% of the population had a disability. This varies significantly from a 2010 household income and expenditure survey and the World Health Survey, which found that 9% and 16%, respectively, of the population had a disability.48 The 2012 Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific put Bangladesh among the 10 countries (of 48) with the highest disability rates.49 Much of this statistical variance may be due to people’s reluctance to use the term “disabled” to describe themselves or a family member, coupled with a lack of understanding of exactly what constitutes a “disability.”

NATIONAL EFFORTS IN DISASTER-RISK REDUCTION50

Bangladesh has made significant efforts to reduce its vulnerability to disasters and climate change.

Following the devastating storms of 1970 and 1991,51 the government established dedicated national efforts to enhance disaster preparedness and reduce disaster vulnerability, ultimately reducing deaths from super-cyclones by more than 99%.52 Within the past 20 years, new technology and mitigation measures have reduced cyclone-related deaths by improving early warning systems, implementing shelters and evacuation plans, constructing coastal embankments, sustaining and improving coastal forest cover, and increasing public education on disaster-preparedness. These remarkable achievements were accomplished by a national-level commitment to a comprehensive approach to disaster-risk reduction.53

Bangladesh has been a signatory to the Hyogo Framework for Action and the successor Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. At the highest level, the country’s legal framework, institutional arrangements, and disaster-management strategy are outlined in the Standing Orders on Disasters, the Disaster Risk Management Act, and the five-year National Disaster Management Plan.54 The Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief functions as the government’s focal point for disaster management and

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disaster response (including risk reduction, food security, and community resilience). Disaster coordination at the district, upazila, and union levels is carried out by District Management Committees.55

The mobilization of civilians and the military is another central component of the government’s disaster-management capacity. The Standing Orders set forth major roles and responsibilities for the Bangladesh Armed Forces in the event of disasters.56 The government invests in training and expanding a pool of more than 16 million people who volunteer each year in areas such as education, health, environmental protection, and disaster response.57

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CONTEXT: COX’S BAZAR DISTRICT

BORDERLAND GEOGRAPHY

Cox’s Bazar is a long, narrow coastal district in the southeastern corner of the country. It is bordered by the Bay of Bengal to the west and by the Naf River for much of its southeastern boundary, forming the border to Myanmar, to the east. The district includes several islands, including the two large inhabited islands of Maheshkhali and Kutubdia. The area is characterized by difficult terrain, bad roads, and insufficient infrastructure. Much of the district is lowlands crisscrossed by a network of streams that flow into the Bay of Bengal. Its coastline features the longest stretch of sandy beach in the world.

DEMOGRAPHICS

Cox’s Bazar is one of the smallest and most densely populated districts in Bangladesh. As of 2016, 2.7 million people lived in the district.58 The Rohingya influx of 720,000 refugees that began in August 2017 increased the total population by more than 25%.59 The majority of the Bangladeshi population is Muslim (93%), but because it borders the Chittagong Hill Tracts, other religions are also represented: Buddhists (4%), Hindus (1%), and Christians (.06%).60 Religious institutions have a strong presence throughout the district, with 3,331 mosques, 300 temples, 116 monasteries, and 6 churches.61

Ethnicity and language are other sources of diversity in Cox’s Bazar. The Chakma and Marma tribes live mostly in hilly areas near the Chittagong Hill Tracts. While they share the common designation of indigenous or tribal people, and both are predominately Buddhist, the Chakma and Marma people are culturally distinct and have their own languages. The Marma language is closest to that of the Rakhine people of Myanmar. The Chakma language is closely related in structure to Chittagonian Bangla, but it is also distinct.62 Chittagonian is the local dialect spoken throughout Cox’s Bazar. The Chittagonian dialect of Bangla widely spoken in Cox’s Bazar is similar enough to Rohingya language to allow some degree of mutual understanding, but not without difficulties.

POVERTY

Against the backdrop of national progress in poverty reduction, Cox’s Bazar is among the 20 districts the government defines as “lagging.”63 National statistics from 2016 indicate that the poverty rate stood at 35% for the entire district, against the national average of 24%; extreme poverty was at 25%, whereas the national rate was 13%.64 Throughout the district of Cox’s Bazar, the population perceives poverty— through unemployment and/or marginalization—to be both a source of insecurity and a key driver of crime and human trafficking.65

Within this overall district context for the district, the upazilas of Teknaf and Ukhiya are the poorest, ranking among the 50 most socially deprived upazilas (out of 509).66 Here, the district’s topographical and infrastructural challenges are especially felt. Lack of arable land and consequent dependence on markets for food in Teknaf and Ukhiya drive high levels of food insecurity and vulnerability to price fluctuations and food availability. Access to drinking water is limited, particularly in remote rural areas, and only one-third of people have a drinking-water source in their dwelling.

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Due to the Rohingya influx, poverty is increasing. A recent assessment by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) on the socioeconomic impact of the Rohingya influx found that influx has increased poverty in both Ukhiya and Teknaf.67 The study also found that while average wages of all laborers in Ukhiya and Teknaf declined following the influx, they increased across the rest of Cox’s Bazar.

FOOD INSECURITY AND MALNUTRITION

Food insecurity and malnutrition are a source of vulnerability for much of the population in Cox’s Bazar.

Fifty-seven percent of the population is classified as struggling with chronic food insecurity,68 and this is particularly true for female-headed households.69 Between 35% and 38% of children under the age of 5 are underweight.70 The prevalence of stunting in Cox’s Bazar is 46% or higher.71 Overall, the population suffers from a lack of dietary diversity and quality. Some 72% of children do not consume a diverse diet—and for women this figure is worse, with 63% of women eating fewer than five foods.72

The current situation in Ukhiya and Teknaf is more acute; 33% of households in Teknaf and 30% in Ukhiya struggle with chronic food insecurity, and 59% of households in Teknaf and 55% of households in Ukhiya experience “borderline” food insecurity. Recent disruptions to income sources exacerbate this problem.73

In recognition of the food insecurity in Cox’s Bazar, five of the eight upazilas in the district receive school feeding. The Government of Bangladesh and the World Food Program provide high-energy biscuits to primary school children in Teknaf, Pekua, and Maheshkhali. In addition, the U.S. Department of Agriculture McGovern-Dole Food for Education Program, implemented by the World Food Programme, provides high-energy biscuits at government primary schools in Ukhiya and Kutubdia.

ECONOMY

The three major sectors of the economy in Cox’s Bazar are services, agriculture, and industry.74 Economic activity is concentrated in the central and northeastern sections of the district. Cox’s Bazar is a major domestic tourist destination, and as a result the service industry comprises 47% of the district’s gross domestic product.75

Dependence on agriculture is higher in Teknaf and Ukhiya, which accounts for the high concentration of poverty in these districts. A 2017 Labor Force Survey shows that 42% of workers are engaged in the agriculture sector (crops, livestock, fisheries, and forestry).76 The low level of productivity in agriculture means that a majority of the workforce in the district is engaged in a low-value and potentially low-income sector of the market.77

Female representation in employment is reported as particularly low, though it is unclear if this is due to problems with the data or to a real lack of participation of females in formal labor in non-agricultural sectors.78

The Rohingya influx has put increased economic pressure on Bangladeshi communities, most of which are not benefiting from increased employment opportunities with the humanitarian response. A household self-reliance assessment from February 2018 found that while 60% of respondents in host

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commu…