693JJ926RQ000159 Draft SOW.pdf

SECTION C – DESCRIPTION/ SPECIFICATIONS/ WORK STATEMENT (DRAFT)

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT STATEMENT (EIS) FOR

PHASE 2 MEDIUM- AND HEAVY-DUTY VEHICLE FUEL

EFFICIENCY IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM

C.1 INTRODUCTION

The Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975 (EPCA)1 mandated that the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) establish and implement a regulatory program for motor vehicle fuel economy.2 As codified in Chapter 329 of Title 49 of the U.S. Code, and as amended by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA),3 EPCA sets forth extensive requirements concerning the establishment of average fuel economy standards for passenger automobiles and non-passenger automobiles, which are motor vehicles with less than 10,000 pounds gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR), excluding rail-only, small volume, and work truck vehicles.4 This regulatory program, known as the Corporate Average Fuel Economy Program (CAFE), was established to reduce national energy consumption by setting vehicle fuel economy standards.

The Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) was enacted in December 2007, providing the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) (and by delegation, NHTSA) new authority to implement, via rulemaking and regulations, “a commercial medium- and heavy-duty on-highway vehicle5 and work truck6 fuel efficiency improvement program designed to achieve the maximum feasible improvement.”7 This program includes on-highway vehicles with a GVWR of 10,000 pounds or more and work trucks rated between 8,500 to 10,000 pounds GVWR. This provision also directs NHTSA to “adopt and

1 EPCA was enacted to serve the Nation’s energy demands and promote energy conservation when feasibly obtainable. EPCA is codified at 49 U.S.C. § 32901 et seq.

2 EPCA directs the Secretary of Transportation to set and implement fuel economy standards for passenger cars and light trucks sold in the United States. The Secretary delegated responsibility for implementing EPCA fuel economy requirements to NHTSA. 49 CFR §§ 1.95, 501.2.

3 Pub. L. No. 110-140, 121 Stat. 1492 (Dec. 19, 2007) (codified in scattered sections of the U.S. Code). EISA amends and builds on EPCA by setting out a comprehensive energy strategy for addressing renewable fuels and the reduction of fuel consumption from all motor vehicle sectors.

4 49 U.S.C. §§ 32901(a)(3), (a)(17)-(18).

5 EISA added the following definition to the automobile fuel economy chapter of the U.S. Code: “commercial medium- and heavy-duty on-highway vehicle” means an on-highway vehicle with a gross vehicle weight rating of 10,000 pounds or more. 49 U.S.C. § 32901(a)(7).

6 EISA added the following definition to the automobile fuel economy chapter of the U.S. Code: “work truck” means a vehicle that – (A) is rated at between 8,500 and 10,000 pounds gross vehicle weight; and (B) is not a medium-duty passenger vehicle (as defined in section 86.1803–01 of title 40, Code of Federal Regulations, as in effect on the date of the enactment of [EISA]). 49 U.S.C. § 32901(a)(19).

7 49 U.S.C. § 32902(k)(2).

implement appropriate test methods, measurement metrics, fuel economy standards, and compliance and enforcement protocols that are appropriate, cost-effective, and technologically feasible for commercial medium- and heavy-duty on-highway vehicles and work trucks.”8 This new authority permits NHTSA to set “separate standards for different classes of vehicles.”9 The commercial medium-duty and heavy-duty on-highway vehicles and work trucks are hereinafter referred to collectively as “MD/HD vehicles.”

Under the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA),10 Federal agencies must analyze environmental impacts of an action if the agency implements, funds, or permits or otherwise approves a proposed Federal action. Specifically, NEPA directs that “to the fullest extent possible,” Federal agencies proposing “major Federal actions significantly affecting the quality of the human environment” must prepare “a detailed statement” on the environmental impacts of the proposed action (including alternatives to the proposed action).11

As directed by EISA, and the President’s Executive Order 14154, “Unleashing American Energy,” the agency is now initiating rulemaking amending CAFE and Fuel Efficiency. As part of this process, NHTSA requires assistance in the preparation of an EIS. Pursuant to NEPA and DOT Order 5610.1D, “DOT’s Procedures for Considering Environmental Impacts,” an agency must explore and evaluate all reasonable alternatives, including the alternative of taking no action. This EIS will address the potential environmental impacts of the proposed action and the reasonably foreseeable impacts of the proposed agency action, including the “no action” alternative.

NHTSA’s NEPA analysis will consider the reasonably foreseeable environmental impacts of the proposed action and reasonable alternatives. Among other potential impacts, NHTSA will consider “the geographic scale, the physical resources, and the socioeconomic characteristics appropriate for the [proposed] action”.12 The EIS analysis will include, where appropriate, a literature review of life-cycle environmental and related impacts, mitigation efforts, emerging materials and technologies. The analysis will also include a review of the status and effects of other government regulations that affect the environmental projections for the proposed action and reasonable alternatives.

The awarded tasks in support of the President’s Executive Order 14154 and the Secretary’s Memo “Fixing the CAFE Program”. The printed DEIS deliverable will include a full inventory of all references and distribution with recipients, with supporting documents and data contained in appendices.

8 Id.

9 Id.

10 42 U.S.C. §§ 4321–4347.

11 42 U.S.C. § 4332.

12 DOT Order 5610.1D, section 6c.

C.2 BACKGROUND

NHTSA has implemented the CAFE program since the mid-1970’s, when Congress enacted EPCA. EPCA established a program to regulate automobile fuel economy and provided for the issuance of average fuel economy standards for passenger cars and separate standards for light trucks. In December 2007, Congress enacted the Energy Independence Security Act (EISA) of 2007, which significantly amended EPCA’s program requirements, granting DOT additional rulemaking authority and requirements. Under the requirements of EISA, DOT (NHTSA) has issued fuel economy and fuel efficiency standards, examples of which can be found on the CAFE website: Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) | NHTSA.

Table C.2.1: Regulatory Process and Accompanying NEPA Documents Step Regulatory

Document NEPA Document Notes

1 N/A Notice of Intent (NOI) NOI drafted by the agency.

2 N/A Minimum 30-Day NOI

Scoping Period Public comments anticipated.

Draft Regulatory Development Period

2 Notice of Proposed Rulemaking

(NPRM)*

Draft Environmental Impact Statement

(DEIS)

NPRM & DEIS are issued concurrently. Public comments anticipated.

3 Minimum 60-Day NPRM Comment Period

Minimum 45-Day DEIS Comment Period

DEIS comment period often extended to 60-days to match

NPRM.

Final Regulatory Development Period

4 Final Environmental Impact Statement

(FEIS)

In prior rulemakings, FEIS has been issued a minimum of 30 calendar days prior to FR.

5 Final Rulemaking

(FR)*

Record of Decision

(ROD)

ROD drafted by the agency.

* Other regulatory documents may accompany the NPRM and FR such as regulatory impact analyses, supplemental notices, small business analyses, etc.

NHTSA intends to issue a Notice of Intent (NOI) to prepare an EIS for the upcoming rulemakings, which formally opens the NEPA "scoping" process. In that notice, NHTSA will invite the public to help identify the environmental issues and reasonable alternatives to be examined in the EIS by seeking public comments regarding those and other matters related to the scope of NHTSA's NEPA analysis. The scoping notice will also provide guidance for participating in the NEPA process and additional information about the alternatives NHTSA expects to consider in its NEPA analysis. In the notice, NHTSA will https://www.nhtsa.gov/laws-regulations/corporate-average-fuel-economy request information on ways the agency could reliably estimate the potential environmental impacts associated with the rulemaking. The notice will also indicate the date by which public comments on the scope of NHTSA’s NEPA analysis should be received.

Following the NOI, NHTSA will consider and address the public input on the notice, then initiate rulemaking efforts that will result in NHTSA issuing a Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) concurrent with the Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) and supporting analyses. These issuances will be followed by a period of public comment on both documents (public stakeholder meetings are also anticipated).

Drafting of the NEPA documents requires extensive coordination between the Contractor, NHTSA, and the Volpe Center (the latter providing critical modeling inputs for the EIS analyses). These analyses require the Contractor to possess highly specialized, expert level environmental impact assessment capabilities. The aggressive program timing requires the Contractor to have documented and verifiable expert capabilities available at the time of award and maintained throughout the period of performance of the Order. A complete EIS cycle can produce a substantial amount of documents, which require the Contractor to possess substantial editing, formatting, quality assurance, and document production/distribution capabilities.

C.3 ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

In addition to the information provided in the Order, the Contractor should review the topics in the most recent EIS completed by the agency, the Draft SEIS for Safer Affordable Fuel- Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles Rule III for Model Years 2022 to 2031 Passenger Cars and Light Trucks (docket no. NHTSA-2025-0490), as well as other past EIS, including the July 2012 light duty (LD) CAFE EIS for model years 2017-2025. These documents can be accessed at http://www.regulations.gov, docket numbers NHTSA-2010-0079 (HD) and NHTSA-2011- 0056 (LD), and on NHTSA’s CAFE website, http://www.nhtsa.gov/fuel-economy.

Due to the nature and complexity of rulemaking and the associated environmental review, and because of the tight timelines within which the agency must complete the required actions, the Contractor should anticipate close and frequent interactions with the COR and other relevant NHTSA, and Volpe staff. In particular, the project manager should expect frequent contact with the COR to discuss such issues as work accomplished to date, progress in specific areas or on specific points of analysis, and any changes in approach that the Contractor or the agency may deem necessary.

Because the NEPA process requires the agency to be informed by public comment in its decision-making, and because information from a variety of sources and analyses, including the agency’s independent evaluation, is likely to influence the principal areas of the work under this Order, the Contractor should anticipate possible changes in approach over the course of performance.

C.4. PURPOSE

The Contractor will provide NHTSA with technical support in preparing an EIS to address the potential environmental impacts of the proposed standards and reasonable alternatives, pursuant to NEPA. This environmental document will analyze reasonably foreseeable impacts from the proposed action on the potentially affected environment.

C.5. DEFINITIONS AND ACRONYMS

The following is a list of key definitions and acronyms used throughout the Order. This list may not be exhaustive.

C.5.1. Acronyms

AEO Annual Energy Outlook BenMA P Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program http://www.regulations.gov/ http://www.nhtsa.gov/fuel-economy

CAFE Corporate Average Fuel Economy CD Compact Disk CEQ Council on Environmental Quality CMAQ Community Multiscale Air Quality model CO Contracting Officer COR Contract Officer’s Representative CS Contracting Specialist DEIS Draft Environmental Impact Statement DOD U.S. Department of Defense DOE U.S. Department of Energy DOT U.S. Department of Transportation DPI Dots Per Inch DVD Digital Video Disk EIS Environmental Impact Statement EISA Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 EPCA Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975 FCCM Facilities Capital Cost of Money FEIS Final Environmental Impact Statement FR Final Rule G&A General and Administration

GCAM

RCP

Global Change Assessment Model’s simulations of the Representative Concentration Pathway radiative forcing targets

GREET Greenhouse Gases and Regulated Emissions in Transportation GRL Geophysical Research Letters journal HD Heavy Duty (Vehicle) HTML Hyper Text Markup Language IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change JAVA An object oriented program language JPEG Joint Photographic Expert Group LD Light Duty (Vehicle)

MAGIC

C Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change MD/HD Medium- and Heavy-Duty (Vehicle) MOVES Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator MY Model Year (Vehicle) NEMS National Energy Modeling System NEPA National Environmental Policy Act NHTSA National Highway Traffic Safety Administration NOI Notice of Intent

NPRM Notice of Proposed Rulemaking NTE Not To Exceed ODC Other Direct Cost OMB Office of Management and Budget ROD Record of Decision (NEPA) SMOKE Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions SOW Statement of Work TAR Transportation Acquisition Regulation Volpe John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center

C.6 GENERAL REQUIREMENTS

The Contractor shall assist NHTSA with the NEPA process as specified in the GSA Schedule and Order. NHTSA will require Contractor assistance to prepare a DEIS to address the potential environmental impacts of the proposed standards and reasonable alternative standards for two EISs. NEPA instructs Federal agencies to consider the potential environmental impacts of their proposed actions and reasonable alternatives in their decision-making. By comparing the environmental impacts of the agency’s proposed action and reasonable alternatives, including a “no action” alternative, the DEIS will inform agency decision-makers, and the public, and the development of the NPRM for the upcoming rulemakings. The DEIS will consider reasonably foreseeable impacts and will discuss impacts “in proportion to their significance.”13

The Contractor shall complete the relevant efforts and analyses identified below, drawing upon available reliable data sources. The Contractor shall be responsible for integrating contract deliverables into the body of NHTSA’s Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS). The Contractor shall provide consulting and review services for supporting environmental-related topics in related rulemaking analyses and documents. The Contractor shall meet the Section C.7 specific requirements of the Order per the specified dates for milestones and deliverables.. To facilitate all Section C requirements, the Contractor shall provide a technical solution that allows it to work collaboratively with NHTSA COR and other relevant NHTSA, and Volpe staff (e.g., web-based shared document workspace, etc.).

C.7 SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS (SRs)

C.7 SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS SECTIONS

13 DOT Order 5610.1D, section 13g.

SR1 KICK-OFF MEETING

SR2 READING, ORGANIZING AND SUMMARIZING NEPA

NOTICE OF INTENT (NOI) COMMENTS

SR3 CONDUCT TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IN SUPPORT OF

DEIS

SR4 ASSIST NHTSA IN DRAFTING OF THE DEIS

SR5 PROVIDE EDITORIAL, FORMATTING, AND

DOCUMENT PRODUCTION SUPPORT FOR THE DEIS

SR6 POST-DEIS ENVIRONMENTAL CONSULTING

SERVICES

C.7.1 SR1 KICK-OFF MEETING

Within ten (10) days after Order award, the Contractor shall meet with NHTSA’s Contracting Officer (CO), Contracting Officer’s Technical Representative (COR), and other interested NHTSA and DOT personnel in order to discuss: (1) the administration of the Order; and (2) the Order’s objectives, planned course of action, schedule, milestones and deliverables, and any other issues the Contractor or Government identifies that relate to the performance of this effort.

During the kick-off meeting, the contractor shall name and introduce the project manager and key personnel. At the meeting, the Contractor shall conduct a short briefing describing the Contractor’s planned approach to assist the agency in the Order. The Contractor, COR, CO and other NHTSA and DOT personnel will discuss specific technical details of the project as well as administrative matters.

C.7.2 SR2 READING, ORGANIZING AND SUMMARIZING NEPA NOTICE OF INTENT

(NOI) COMMENTS

NHTSA intends to issue a Notice of Intent (NOI) to prepare an EIS for the upcoming rulemaking, which formally opens the NEPA "scoping" process. In that notice, NHTSA will invite the public to help identify the environmental issues and reasonable alternatives to be examined in the EIS by seeking written public comments regarding those and other matters related to the scope of NHTSA's NEPA analysis. The scoping notice will also provide guidance for participating in the NEPA process and additional information about the alternatives NHTSA expects to consider in its NEPA analysis. In the notice, NHTSA will request information on ways the agency could reliably estimate the potential environmental impacts associated with the rulemaking. The notice will also indicate the date by which public comments on the scope of NHTSA’s NEPA analysis should be received.

The Contractor shall become familiar with the NOI and scoping comments located in the EIS docket to assist in its understanding of the scope of the EIS. NHTSA anticipates that some scoping comments may raise complex environmental issues, and therefore requires assistance from the Contractor in addressing these issues. The Contractor shall access the EIS docket, read all scoping comments (including any attachments), and sort them into categories developed in consultation with NHTSA. The purpose of this effort is to identify and prioritize the issues to be addressed in the analysis of impacts in the DEIS.

The Contractor shall draft summaries of the scoping comment issues by category (e.g., energy use, air quality and climate). The Contractor shall discuss the scoping comments with NHTSA and use its expertise to assist NHTSA in understanding the issues raised by the scoping comments. In particular, the Contractor shall identify those comment issues or categories of comment issues that identify impacts requiring in-depth analysis and those that identify impacts requiring less analysis. In making those determinations, the Contractor shall be guided by the content of the scoping comments and by the direction in the DOT Order 5610.1D that, as part of scoping, agencies shall “identify[] any substantive issues that meaningfully inform the consideration of environmental impacts and the resulting decision” and eliminate non-substantive issues from further analysis.14 .

While reading and categorizing the scoping comment issues, the Contractor shall evaluate all scientific studies and other sources identified in or attached to the scoping comments and note whether each study or other source has been peer reviewed. The Contractor shall prioritize review of the peer-reviewed scientific studies and other sources for possible inclusion in the DEIS.

The Contractor shall then assist NHTSA in determining whether and how to use various studies in the evaluation of impacts in the DEIS. The Contractor shall cite only to peer-reviewed sources, finalized State or Federal government reports, or panel-reviewed sources in the EIS. For purposes of further evaluation in preparing the DEIS, the Contractor may be called upon to provide assistance to assess climate models identified in the scoping comments (e.g., whether the models have been reviewed, whether they are in the public domain, what assumptions they rely upon, and how the Contractor could conduct a similar analysis).

In consultation with the COR, the Contractor shall also assist NHTSA in drafting responses to scoping comments for inclusion in the DEIS. The Contractor shall provide the deliverables required by this section using the formats set forth in Section D.

14 DOT Order 5610.1D, section 6d.

C.7.3 SR3 CONDUCT TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IN SUPPORT OF DEIS

Following the NOI, NHTSA will consider and address the public input on the notice, then initiate rulemaking efforts. NHTSA will issue a Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) concurrent with the Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) and supporting analyses. These issuances will be followed by a period of public comment on both documents (as well as public stakeholder meetings).

The Contractor will assist in the drafting and publication of the DEIS. Assistance in drafting of the NEPA documents requires the Contractor to possess a robust project management system and sufficient staff capabilities to participate in extensive coordination with NHTSA and the Volpe Center (the latter contributes critical modeling inputs for the EIS analyses). Support of the NEPA analyses will require the Contractor to possess highly specialized, expert level environmental impact assessment capabilities. The aggressive program timing requires the Contractor to have documented and verifiable expert capabilities available at the time of award, which are to be maintained throughout the period of performance of the Order. This expertise includes but is not limited to the following fields:

• Health, Societal, and Environmental Impacts

• Climate Trends

• On-Road Vehicle Transportation Sector

• Transportation generated Emissions

• Measurement Methods and Standards for Vehicle Emissions and Fuel Economy

• Energy

• Air Quality (including National and Near-road Inventories)

• Life-Cycle Environmental Impacts

• Fuel Efficiency Technologies (including advanced materials and technologies)

• Mitigation

• Other Related Topics (such as Land Use & Development, Hazardous Materials and

Regulated Wastes, Historic and Cultural Resources, Noise, Safety Impacts to Human Health, Adverse Impacts, Productivity, Resource Commitment)

• Project Management

• Public Comment Analysis and Organization

• Document Production, Publication and Distribution Management

Under DOT Order 5610.1D, Operating Administrations (OAs) must evaluate the environmental impacts of the proposed action and the reasonably foreseeable impacts of the proposed agency action, including the no action alternative. Environmental impacts mean changes to the human environment from the proposed action or alternatives that are reasonably foreseeable and have a reasonably close causal relationship to the proposed action or alternative. Impacts include ecological (such as the impacts on natural resources and on the components, structures, and functioning of affected ecosystems), aesthetic, historic, cultural, economic (such as the impacts on employment), social, or health impacts.

Impacts appropriate for analysis under NEPA may be either beneficial or adverse, or both, with respect to these values. A “but-for” causal relationship is insufficient to make an agency responsible for a particular impact under NEPA. Impacts should generally not be considered if they are remote in time, geographically remote, or the product of a lengthy causal chain. Impacts do not include those impacts that the agency has no ability to prevent due to the limits of its regulatory authority, that would occur regardless of the proposed action, or that would need to be initiated by a third party.15

NHTSA will provide the Contractor with the changes in fuel use and emissions associated with the proposed standards and each alternative under consideration, as compared to the “no action” alternative Using the information provided by NHTSA, and taking into account information received through the public scoping process (or in comments on the DEIS) on climate modeling, the Contractor shall use a computer model acceptable to NHTSA to analyze and compare the estimated impacts on global surface temperature due to the proposed standards’ and each of the alternatives’ forecasted CO2 emissions levels. The Contractor shall compare the impacts on global surface temperature between the proposed standards and each of the various alternatives, and quantify expressions of uncertainty and confidence of these comparisons and estimates. Accordingly, the Contractor must be prepared to use the software and inputs in Table C.7.3 used for computer simulation modeling to complete the various analyses in support of the DEIS. Versions of these software may be upgraded, or the software itself may be replaced with different software during the EIS with notice from the COR to the Contractor.

Table C.7.3. Required Contractor Expertise - EIS Modeling Software and Data

Sources Model Title Model Inputs Model Outputs

NEMS

(AEO)

DOE - National Energy Modeling System Annual Energy Outlook (AEO)

• Freeze fuel economy standards from 2018/2019 (depending on vehicle class) onward

• Other inputs are default values for the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO)

• Projected fuel prices for all fuels

• U.S. average electricity generating mix for future years

• Heavy duty pickup truck and van, vocational truck, and combination tractor sales for future years

• Class 2a/2b split for future years

GREET

Fuel-Cycle model

DOE - Greenhouse Gases and Regulated Emissions in Transportation

• Estimates for nationwide average electricity generating mix estimate from

NEMS

• Other inputs are default GREET data

• Upstream emissions for EV electricity generation

• Estimates of upstream emissions associated with production, transportation, and storage for gasoline, diesel, and ethanol-85

15 DOT Order 5610.1D, section 26.

Model Title Model Inputs Model Outputs MOVES EPA - Motor Vehicle

Emissions Simulator

• Emissions data from in-use chassis testing;

remote sensing; state vehicle inspection and maintenance; and other programs

• NOx, SOx, CO, VOCs, PM2.5*, and toxic emission factors (tailpipe, evaporative, brake and tire wear) for Volpe modeling for heavy duty pickup truck and van, vocational truck, and combination tractor, for three fuel types:

gasoline, diesel, ethanol-85

Volpe Model Volpe Model • Characteristics of baseline vehicle fleet

• Availability, applicability, and incremental effectiveness and cost of fuel-saving technologies

• Vehicle survival and mileage accumulation patterns

• Fuel economy rebound effect

• Future fuel prices, social cost of carbon, and other economic factors

• Fuel characteristics and criteria pollutant emission factors

• Costs associated with utilization of additional fuel-saving technologies

• Changes in travel demand, fuel consumption, fuel outlays,

• Technology utilization scenarios

• Estimated U.S. vehicle fleet criteria and toxic emissions (tons) for future years

SMOKE MCNC - Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions

• Criteria pollutant emissions outputs from MOVES, Volpe, or other models

• Emissions data for sources other than heavy-duty vehicles, from EPA National Emissions Inventory

• Gridded, speciated, hourly emissions for input into CMAQ and other models.

CMAQ EPA - Community Multiscale Air Quality model

• SMOKE outputs

• Meteorological data

• Estimates of criteria pollutant concentrations and acid deposition.

CMAQ includes a meteorological modeling system, emission models, and a chemistry-transport modeling system for simulation of the chemical transformation and fate.

BenMAP EPA - Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program

• CMAQ outputs

• Population and population distribution data

• Concentration-response data for health outcomes

• Valuation data for monetization of health outcomes

• Health effects (number of mortality and morbidity outcomes)

• Monetized health effects

GCAM RCP

Scenario Results

Joint Global Change Research Institute’s Global Change Assessment Model’s simulations of the Representative Concentration Pathway radiative forcing targets

• Regional population estimates

• Labor productivity growth

• Energy demand

• Agriculture, land cover, and land-use models

• Atmospheric gas concentrations

• GCAMReference, GCAM6.0, and RCP4.5 global GHG emission scenarios (baselines).

MAGICC National Center for Atmospheric Research

• Adjusted GCAMReference, GCAM6.0, and RCP4.5 climate scenarios to reflect lower projected emissions from the pickup truck and van and light-duty vehicle fleet in the US from the action alternatives.

• Projected global carbon dioxide concentrations, global mean surface temperature, and sea-level rise.

GEM Greenhouse Gas Emissions Model (GEM) for Medium-and Heavy-Duty Vehicle Compliance

• Characteristics and attributes of engines / family of engines and vehicles (glider)

• Fuel consumption values for different combination of technologies

*NOx = nitrogen oxides; SOx = sulfur oxides; CO = carbon monoxide; VOCs = volatile organic compounds;

PM2.5 = particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter equal to or less than 2.5 microns.

Using the information provided by NHTSA, the Contractor also shall analyze and compare the estimated impacts on ambient air quality of changes in criteria pollutant and toxic air emissions associated with the proposed standards and each alternative under consideration.

The Contractor must have access to and the ability to use a model to perform this analysis and generate results within the required timeframes for the DEIS.

Using the estimates resulting from its modeling, the Contractor shall analyze the reasonably foreseeable impacts of the proposed standards and the alternatives under consideration, including the impacts of projected temperature changes on the environment and environmental impacts of the proposed standards and alternatives.

The Contractor also shall estimate the impacts of the proposed standards and the alternatives in combination with other associated impacts, including impacts on global surface temperature, and shall quantify expressions of uncertainty and confidence of these estimated impacts. To facilitate this analysis, NHTSA will provide estimates of changes in fuel use and emissions of CO2 and criteria pollutants resulting from historical NHTSA rulemakings standards, and the changes in fuel use and emissions of CO2 and criteria pollutants projected to result from the proposed standards and the alternatives under consideration. To inform the other associated potential impacts analysis, if appropriate, the Contractor shall use information NHTSA determines is relevant based on the agency’s evaluation and on public comments received during scoping or in response to the DEIS.

The Contractor shall also undertake an analysis of the lifecycle environmental impacts of the new and existing vehicle technologies that NHTSA considers in its analysis. The Contractor shall describe the relevant aspects of a lifecycle analysis, including the environmental risks (in terms of air pollutants, water pollutants, and other environmental risks) associated with the production of key inputs and their safe disposal at the end of their useful life, including the potential for recycling and/or re-purposing of materials.

The Contractor shall develop the list of technologies in consultation with the COR and decide upon the prioritization of the technologies to be studied in collaboration with relevant NHTSA and DOT staff. An example of an existing technology would be the replacement of steel in vehicle manufacture with aluminum, and the relevant lifecycle costs could include the impact on the aggregate demand for both steel and aluminum, and the consequences of increased demand for the inputs to aluminum manufacture, including the prospects for added processing capacity, transportation of ores, and the environmental and safety impacts thereof.

The lifecycle analysis for new and emerging technologies is exemplified by demand for lithium-ion batteries, and the requirement for sourcing raw materials, fabrication of the batteries, and safe disposal of the materials at the end of their useful lives, as well as the environmental impacts of materials in their manufacture and use. The traditional life-cycle analysis shall be expanded to also consider sustainability (e.g., sourcing of sustainable manufacturing materials) and advanced manufacturing technologies such as those for vehicle mass reduction (e.g., laser welding, hydroforming, tailor-welded blanks, etc.).

The Contractor shall identify emerging environmental topics for presentation to the COR for consideration in the EIS analysis. The consideration of emerging topics shall include those identified in comments on recent agency EIS documents and those identified by qualified source. The review shall also include governmental and NGO studies on the impacts of climate on ground vehicle transportation safety.

In performing the DEIS work, the Contractor should anticipate that, based on the scoping comments or NHTSA’s own review of studies or other information or developments, the COR may: identify additional issues for analysis; direct the Contractor to perform any necessary analysis of such issues and draft appropriate discussions of the results for inclusion in the NEPA documents; and/or direct the Contractor to use alternative or supplemental analytical techniques to estimate the environmental impacts associated with the proposed standards and each of the alternatives.

C.7.4 SR4 ASSIST NHTSA IN DRAFTING OF THE DEIS

a. Draft Sections of the DEIS As described in the DOT Order 5610.1D, the Contractor shall perform analyses for and draft chapters of the DEIS. The Contractor shall assist NHTSA in ensuring that input from the NOI comments are addressed in the DEIS.

The recent environmental impact statements were of sufficient complexity and volume of comments that additional EIS sections were required to fully address all public input and topics. Therefore, the Contractor should use this modified outline below as an initial template for the planned EIS (sections subject to change as necessary):

COVER SHEET

SUMMARY

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER 1 PURPOSE OF AND NEED FOR ACTION

CHAPTER 2 PROPOSED ACTION AND ALTERNATIVES AND ANALYSIS

METHODS

CHAPTER 3 ENERGY

CHAPTER 4 AIR QUALITY

CHAPTER 5 NON-CRITERIA EMISSIONS

CHAPTER 6 LIFE-CYCLE ASSESSMENT IMPLICATIONS OF VEHICLE

MATERIALS

CHAPTER 7 HISTORIC AND CULTURAL RESOURCES

CHAPTER 8 COMPARISON OF ALTERNATIVES AND MITIGATION

APPENDICES Includes: analysis methodologies, cost-benefit analysis, methodology and scientific accuracy, lists of acronyms and abbreviations, responses to public comments, distribution, and references, and supporting materials, data, and analyses.

Specifically, the Contractor shall provide the services listed below in order to assist NHTSA in the preparation of a DEIS. Due to the project’s tight timeframe, these services will need to be carried out concurrently with other requirements of this Order. (Given the time schedule available to prepare the DEIS, the Contractor is required to immediately communicate to the COR any problems it may have in meeting Order deadlines associated with the following tasks.)

The Contractor shall rely on the analyses described in the previous section to draft chapters of the DEIS, including those related to the “Affected Environment” and “Environmental Consequences.” The Contractor also shall assist NHTSA in drafting a chapter on “Proposed Action and Alternatives”. In the DEIS, the Contractor also shall concisely describe the model(s) it used in estimating environmental impacts of the proposed standards and alternatives, explain the underlying methodology and assumptions, and present the results of its analyses, including the comparative implications of those results among the action alternatives, and the nature and degree of uncertainty associated with those results.

Capturing the most current information from peer-reviewed scientific journals in support of the EIS documents, such as the DEIS, is important. In drafting these chapters, the Contractor is to be guided by relevant information obtained from the scoping comments described in Section C.7.2., other scientific studies, Federal reports on climate trends, and other sources as appropriate, as determined in consultation with the COR. The Contractor shall obtain, organize, and index all relevant sources used in the DEIS.

The Contractor shall submit its draft chapters for the DEIS to the COR for review and comment and shall promptly revise the draft sections in response to NHTSA’s comments and in accordance with the Deliverables section of this Order. As part of this process, the Contractor and the COR may develop informal interim deliverables of portions of the draft chapters, as appropriate, to provide early feedback and ensure timely completion of the final document.

b. Assist NHTSA in the Preparation of the Administrative Record Associated with the

DEIS.

The administrative record consists of all documents and materials directly or indirectly considered by the agency decision maker in making a regulatory decision. The Contractor understands that the administrative record in connection with an agency rulemaking must be complete. There are a number of reasons for this, including making information available to the public, providing resource information for the agency to review in the course of subsequent rulemakings, and for judicial review. The Contractor understands that in the event of a legal challenge, NHTSA will not be allowed to rely on documents not included in the administrative record.

The Contractor shall be responsible for preparing and completing the Administrative Record within the timeframe specified in the Deliverables and Milestones section of this Order. To assemble a “complete” Administrative Record, the Contractor shall obtain, organize, and index all relevant sources and provide those sources and an index of sources to the COR. In providing sources, the Contractor may be required to purchase electronic or hardcopy documents or receive special permission to copy those documents to ensure copyright restrictions are not violated (excludes sources for which the agency already has paid access such that its access and use by the agency does not violate copyright restrictions). Refer to Sections H.1.4 Publication and H.1.5 Sources for more information.

NHTSA uses portions of the Administrative Record to assist with rollout activities which include staging documents the docket shortly before the NPRM is published. The Contractor shall assist NHTSA’s rollout activities by providing spreadsheet lists which identify these sources prior to delivering the complete Administrative Record. NHTSA recognizes these are drafts and may be updated prior to delivering the final Administrative Record.

C.7.5. SR5 PROVIDE EDITORIAL, FORMATTING, AND DOCUMENT PRODUCTION

SUPPORT FOR THE DEIS

A complete EIS cycle can produce many thousands of pages of documents that require the Contractor to possess substantial editing, formatting, quality assurance, and document production capabilities. Table C.7.3. provides examples of the length of prior EIS documents for the two most recent agency fuel economy rulemakings:

Table C.7.3: Examples of Length of DEIS Documents for Two Prior Agency Rules Rule Analysis Summary

(pages) Statement

(pages) Appendices

(pages) Total

(pages) Light Duty

MY 2027-32

FEIS 43 375 1388 1806

Light Duty

MY 2022-

DSEIS 21 107 479 607

a. Development of Drafts The Contractor shall insert the information drafted under SR3 into a draft outline for the DEIS and make conforming changes based on NHTSA edits to other sections of the DEIS, using redline/strikeout to reflect the changes to the other sections.

Except as otherwise directed by the COR, the Contractor shall have primary responsibility for compiling draft sections of the NEPA documents (i.e., the DEIS), including those prepared by the Contractor and those provided to the Contractor by NHTSA, and for preparing and formatting necessary text, tables and graphics as required by NHTSA. The Contractor shall provide drafts of the complete NEPA documents to NHTSA for review and comment and shall promptly incorporate NHTSA’s comments.

As part of this process, the Contractor and the COR may develop informal interim deliverables of portions of the draft chapters, as appropriate, to provide early feedback and ensure timely completion of the final document.

b. Reproduction and Distribution The Contractor shall complete the necessary reproduction of the DEIS through use of its own resources. NHTSA will transmit current mailing lists to the Contractor, which shall update the lists as necessary. The Contractor shall distribute the DEIS, as well as any cover letter provided by NHTSA, to those parties included in the current mailing list after receiving final approval from NHTSA.

The reproduction of the DEIS shall be a number of paper copies necessary for NHTSA to provide a copy to those requesting paper copies.

C.7.6. SR6 POST-DEIS ENVIRONMENTAL CONSULTING SERVICES

Following the publication of the DEIS, the agency will require three (3) additional months of part-time environmental consulting services. These limited support services may include activities in support of revisions to administrative record, environmental analysis, presentation of DEIS related materials to stakeholders, or other environmental technical support activities. Task SR5 will not include activities related to the DEIS/NPRM comment resolution or FEIS preparation, activities that if required will be funded separately in Section C.8 Optional Specific Requirements.

C.8 OPTIONAL SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS (OSRs)

At the option of the government, the Contractor may be required to provide additional support and services. These additional services are described in Section C.8 as “Optional Specific Requirements.” The government is not obligated to order these services. The Contractor shall provide these services after receiving a unilateral modification signed by the contracting officer. Any unilateral modification will specify which optional services have been added to the contract and will be issued by the contracting officer with stated milestones, deliverables, and impact on period of performance. Please note that all “Optional Specific Requirements (OSRs)” are priced as a single Order option in Section B of this Order.

These following OSRs will support NHTSA’s actions during the following stages of the rulemaking process: The agency will consider and address the public comments and input on the DEIS, then revise and issue a Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS).

NHTSA will consider the environmental effects of its proposed action, and upon selection of a final alternative, will draft a NEPA Record of Decision (ROD). NHTSA will issue a Final Rule (FR) with supporting analyses. Following the publication of the FEIS, the agency will require three (3) additional months of part-time environmental consulting services.

If the government elects to exercise the optional requirements, then the requirement defined in Section C.7.SR3 to provide EIS-related presentations and briefings shall also include the Contractor’s work on the optional requirements.

C.8 OPTIONAL SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS

OSR1 (Future-Award Option)

OPTIONAL SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS KICK-OFF MEETING

OSR2 (Future-Award Option)

READING, ORGANIZING AND SUMMARIZING NEPA DRAFT

ENIVRONMENTAL IMPACT STATEMENT (DEIS)

COMMENTS

OSR3 (Future-Award Option)

CONDUCT TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IN SUPPORT OF FEIS

OSR4 (Future-Award Option)

ASSIST NHTSA IN DRAFTING AND FINALIZING THE FEIS

OSR5 (Future-Award Option)

POST-FEIS ENVIRONMENTAL CONSULTING SERVICES

C.8.1 OSR1 OPTIONAL SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS KICK-OFF MEETING

Within 10 days after the government’s exercise of any or all of the optional requirements (i.e., issuance of a unilateral modification to the Contractor), the Contractor shall meet via teleconference or web- conference with the NHTSA CO, the COR and other interested NHTSA and DOT personnel to discuss the Contractor’s approach to meeting the optional requirements. The meeting shall discuss the approach provided in the Contractor’s technical proposal and discuss possible revision / refinement to the approach. The Contractor may be asked to submit a revised technical work plan to the COR for review and comment 15 days after the meeting. The COR will review and provide comments on this revised work plan within 15 days after submission of revised technical work plan.

C.8.2 OSR2 READING, ORGANIZING AND SUMMARIZING NEPA DRAFT

ENIVRONMENTAL IMPACT STATEMENT (DEIS) COMMENT

The Contractor shall provide the following services to assist NHTSA in developing the content of a FEIS for the upcoming rulemakings:

a. Reading, Organizing and Summarizing DEIS Notice Comment Issues NHTSA intends to publish a Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) requesting public input on its NEPA analysis. The resulting public input will be used to inform the preparation of a FEIS, which in turn will inform decisions on the final rule.

The NEPA documents are published in their own online dockets for public comment that can receive hundreds or thousands of public submissions that the Contractor shall review and organize for agency consideration and comment. Additionally, public comments on the NPRM and associated regulatory analyses documents may be relevant to the NEPA analysis and be directed to the Contractor for similar review and organization. The following table has a summary of the number of comments received on the two most recent Agency EISs (excluding form letters). The number of comments received is only partially indicative of the required work effort, as a single comment may be tens of pages in length and contain an extensive number of relevant issues. Additionally, the agency receives oral statements and written submissions at public meetings that may be related to the NEPA analysis and would require similar review and organization for agency consideration and comment.

Table C.8.1: Examples of Number of Supporting Documents and Comments Received for Two Most Recent Agency EISs

Rule Document Docket ID* Public Submissions to Dockets (Comments)

Light Duty MY 2027-2031

NOI NHTSA-2022-0075-

0001 23

FEIS NHTSA-2022-0075- 23

FR NHTSA-2023-0022-

63273 63.13k

Light Duty MY 2022-2031

DSEIS NHTSA-2025-0490-

0001 0 as of 12/12/25

NPRM NHTSA-2025-0491-

0001 173 as of 12/12/25

*EIS documents and comments can be retrieved from www.regulations.gov

The Contractor shall become familiar with the public comments submitted to the DEIS docket in order to assist in their understanding of the scope of the FEIS. The Contractor shall access the DEIS docket, read all comments (including any attachments), and sort them into categories developed in consultation with NHTSA.

The purpose of this effort is to identify and prioritize the issues to address in the analysis of impacts in the FEIS. NHTSA anticipates that some DEIS comments may raise complex environmental issues, and therefore requires assistance from the Contractor in addressing these issues. The Contractor shall draft summaries of these DEIS comment issues by category. The Contractor shall discuss the DEIS comment issues with NHTSA and shall use its expertise to assist NHTSA in understanding the issues raised by the DEIS comments in relation to the proposed action. The Contractor also shall prioritize issues raised in the comments to inform the agency’s response in the FEIS in accordance with that prioritization. Additionally, public comments on the NPRM and associated regulatory analyses documents may be relevant to the NEPA analysis and be directed to the Contractor for similar review and organization.

While reading and categorizing the scoping comment issues, the Contractor shall evaluate all scientific studies and other sources identified in or attached to the scoping comments and note whether each study or other source has been peer reviewed. The Contractor shall also evaluate the scientific studies and other sources for whether they are peer reviewed, credible sources.

The Contractor shall then assist NHTSA in determining whether and how to use various studies in the evaluation of impacts in the DEIS. The Contractor shall then assist NHTSA in determining whether and how to use various studies in the evaluation of impacts in the FEIS. The Contractor shall cite only to peer- reviewed sources, finalized State or Federal government reports, and panel-reviewed sources in the EIS. Capturing the most current information from peer-reviewed scientific journals is one goal of the EIS. The Contractor shall also conduct independent research, as appropriate, to identify additional studies that are not identified in the DEIS comments. The Contractor shall obtain, organize, and index all relevant sources used in the FEIS for compilation during subsequent tasks in support of the FEIS record of decision.

http://www.regulations.gov/

For purposes of further evaluation in preparing the FEIS, the Contractor may be called upon to provide assistance to assess climate models identified in the DEIS comments (e.g., whether the models have been reviewed, whether they are in the public domain, what assumptions they rely upon, and how the Contractor could conduct a similar analysis).

In consultation with the COR, the Contractor shall also assist NHTSA in drafting responses to DEIS comments for inclusion in the FEIS. The Contractor shall provide the

C.8.3 OSR3 CONDUCT TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IN SUPPORT OF FEIS

The Contractor shall assist NHTSA in ensuring that input from the NOI and DEIS comments are comprehensively addressed in the FEIS. The Contractor shall perform analyses for and draft chapters of the FEIS. The FEIS format shall follow the general specifications of C.7.4 SR4, implementing all format changes that were specified for the DEIS. Specifically, the Contractor shall provide the services listed below in order to assist NHTSA in the preparation of a FEIS. As Section C.8 are optional services that may be exercised in a separate contract action, the full detail of all tasks required for an FEIS are outlined in the following sections. However, the FEIS tasks in Section C.8 are more generally revisions to the analyses and sections of the DEIS in Section C.7 rather than unique requirements.

Due to the project's tight timeframe, these services will need to…