Sources Sought Announcement 2.21.2025.pdf

SOURCES SOUGHT NOTICE 693JJ3-25-SS-HEPP30

for

“Enhancing Forecasting Practices to Improve the Quality of Travel Demand Models, Forecasts and Transportation Plans”

1. SUBMITTAL INFORMATION

ISSUE DATE: February 21, 2024 DUE DATE FOR RESPONSES: March 20, 2024 at 2pm Eastern Time SUBMIT RESPONSES TO: Carolyn.Lethert@dot.gov and Donna.Franzese@dot.gov

SUBMIT QUESTIONS TO: Carolyn.Lethert@dot.gov and Donna.Franzese@dot.gov

See below Section 5 entitled “REQUESTED CONTENT OF RESPONSES TO THIS SOURCES SOUGHT NOTICE (SSN)” for submittal content instructions.

2. INTRODUCTION

Potential Sources Sought. This is NOT a solicitation for proposals, proposal abstracts, or quotations. The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) is conducting a market survey to identify potential sources for an anticipated contract for “Enhancing Forecasting Practices to Improve the Quality of Travel Demand Models, Forecasts and Transportation Plans”. The purpose of this notice is to obtain information, for planning purposes, regarding: the availability and capability of qualified sources to perform the work.

Pursuant to 48 C.F.R. Part 10, the Government is conducting market research to:

• Determine what sources exist that are capable of satisfying the Government’s requirements listed below,

• Determine the capabilities of potential contractors,

• Determine the size and status of potential sources, and

• Determine the level of competition (i.e. 8(a), set-aside or full and open).

3. BACKGROUND

The FHWA Office of Acquisition and Grants Management intends to make an award to accomplish the work described herein. The purpose for this SSN is to conduct market research to identify potential offerors having an interest in, and the resources to accomplish the work.

Consideration will be given to identifying small business concerns, including the sub-categories of SDVOSB, HUBZone, 8(a), SDB and woman-owned. The result of this market research will contribute to determining the method of procurement.

mailto:Carolyn.Lethert@dot.gov mailto:Donna.Franzese@dot.gov mailto:Carolyn.Lethert@dot.gov

This document contains a draft scope of work. Your firm’s response regarding your firm’s experience and capabilities will be used to determine the availability of potential businesses, both large and small, and their capabilities in meeting the Government’s requirement.

The estimated period of performance for this contract is 36 months. The Government anticipates this requirement would be awarded as a firm fixed price contract.

This requirement supports a statutory requirement as described further below.

The purpose of this task order is to seek ideas is to enhance travel demand forecasting practices to fulfill some of the IIJA Section 11205 requirements.

The objective of this research is to leverage NCHRP 9341 titled “Traffic Forecasting Accuracy Assessment” that examined the accuracy of project-level traffic forecasts on public roads in the U.S., assembled a database of traffic forecast accuracy, composed information about traffic forecasts, and presented a series of case studies aimed at providing a better understanding of the sources of inaccuracy. The Transportation Research Board (TRB) recognized that “it is important that transportation planners and policy makers base transportation investment decisions on the most accurate possible traffic forecasts”, and “the evidence on forecast accuracy remains subject to debate, with only a small set of empirical studies examining non-toll traffic forecast accuracy in the United States.” It also recognizes that “a major barrier to such research has been the lack of data, largely because it is often difficult to compile information on forecasts made years earlier.” Therefore, NCHRP sponsored a Research study in 2020 spanning 24 months (2017 – 2019) to further the advancement in data gathering and travel demand forecasting.

FHWA is using this NCHRP research to fulfill elements of the IIJA Section 11205 requirement.

FHWA has been leveraging the NCHRP research instead of conducting an original comprehensive study. This study enables FHWA to broaden the travel demand forecasting accuracy research to explore other possibilities of improving the quality of travel demand models and forecasts.

Per IIJA Section 11205, “the Secretary shall carry out a study to compare travel demand forecasts with the observed data” and “to develop best practices or guidance for States and metropolitan planning organizations to use in forecasting travel demand for future investments in transportation improvement”, and “to evaluate the impact of transportation investments, including new roadway capacity, on travel behavior and travel demand, including public transportation ridership, induced highway travel, and congestion; to support more accurate travel demand forecasting by States and metropolitan planning organizations; and to enhance the capacity of States and metropolitan planning organizations to forecast travel demand; and to track observed travel behavior responses, including induced travel, changes in transportation capacity, pricing, and land use patterns; and support the transportation planning processes under sections 134 and 135 of title 23, United States Code.” Please see IIJA Sec. 11205. Travel demand data and modeling2for details.

1 https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/25637/traffic-forecasting-accuracy-assessment-research 2 https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3684/text https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/25637/traffic-forecasting-accuracy-assessment-research https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/3684/text

NCHRP Traffic Forecasting Accuracy Assessment Research (2020) The Transportation Research Board (TRB) is part of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. It provides leadership in transportation improvements and innovation through trusted, timely, impartial, and evidence-based information exchange, research, and advice regarding all modes of transportation3. THE NATIONAL COOPERATIVE HIGHWAY RESEARCH PROGRAM (NCHRP) is the States’ Highway Research Program. The program is developed based on research needs identified by chief administrators and other staff of the highway and transportation departments, by committees of AASHTO, and by the FHWA.

The AASHTO Special Committee on Research and Innovation (R&I select topics of the highest merit, and each year R&I’s recommendations are proposed to the AASHTO Board of Directors and the National Academies. NCHRP define research projects to address these topics, and qualified research agencies are selected from submitted proposals. The National Academies and TRB has the responsibilities of administration and surveillance of research contracts. NCHRP is the most effective way to solve many problems facing state departments of transportation (DOTs) administrators and engineers through systematic, well-designed, and implementable research4.

“The objective of this study was to develop a process to analyze and improve the accuracy, reliability, and utility of project-level traffic forecasts. To meet this objective, addressing the following components: (1) analysis of traffic forecasting accuracy and usefulness using information from various sources including, but not limited to, state departments of transportation (DOTs), metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs), counties, and other transportation agencies actively involved in forecasting travel demand in competitive modes; (2) assessment of transportation agency experience with respect to accuracy of various forecasting approaches; (3) identification of methods for improving flexibility and adaptability of available forecasting techniques to changing assumptions and input data; (4) consideration of risk and uncertainty in the forecasts; and (5) identification of potential methods to help the traffic forecasting industry improve forecasting usefulness and accuracy while improving their ability to communicate and explain these forecasts to affected communities. In the context of this study, the terms accuracy and reliability are meant to address how well the forecasting procedures estimate what actually occurred; utility is meant to encompass how well a particular projected outcome informs a decision; and project level is meant to include a single project or a bundle of related projects. The product of this research provides guidance to MPOs, state DOTs, and others to improve the accuracy, reliability, and utility of traffic forecasting methods as applied to transportation planning, design, and operation efforts—both short and long term.”5

“To accomplish this task, the research team assembled the largest known database of traffic forecast accuracy, composed of information about traffic forecasts and about measured outcomes after the road projects open. The report examines the accuracy of these forecasts and factors related to accuracy, and presents a series of case studies aimed at providing better understanding https://www.nationalacademies.org/trb/about#:~:text=As%20part%20of%20the%20National,regarding%20all%20m odes%20of%20transportation.

4 https://www.trb.org/NCHRP/NCHRPOverview.aspx 5 https://apps.trb.org/cmsfeed/TRBNetProjectDisplay.asp?ProjectID=4186 https://www.nationalacademies.org/trb/about#:%7E:text=As%20part%20of%20the%20National,regarding%20all%20modes%20of%20transportation https://www.nationalacademies.org/trb/about#:%7E:text=As%20part%20of%20the%20National,regarding%20all%20modes%20of%20transportation https://www.trb.org/NCHRP/NCHRPOverview.aspx https://apps.trb.org/cmsfeed/TRBNetProjectDisplay.asp?ProjectID=4186 of the sources of inaccuracy. Together, the analysis coupled with the case studies provide empirical evidence about the accuracy of past traffic forecasts.”6 The three research questions are:

• How accurate are traffic forecasts?

• What are the sources of forecast error?

• How can forecasting practices be improved?

This research produced a report that consists of a guidebook and technical analysis documenting not only the historical accuracy of traffic forecasts, but also measuring bias and spread. “The research shows that, although certain known factors such as population, employment, and fuel price projections are important contributors to forecast inaccuracy, the specific contributors are diverse and do not lend themselves to easy solutions.” The accuracy of traffic forecasts is related to a number of factors, with higher-volume roads, shorter-term forecasts, and travel models producing more accurate forecasts than their respective alternatives.7

Three recommendations from the NCHRP research were:

1. Use a range of forecasts to communicate uncertainty.

o To evaluate whether a forecast is sufficient to inform the decision at hand, the project team recommends that forecasters explicitly acknowledge the uncertainty inherent in forecasting by reporting the forecast in terms of a range.

2. Systematically archive traffic forecasts and collect observed data before and after the project opens o Understanding the historical accuracy of forecasts has value in part because the historical data provide empirical evidence of the uncertainty in outcomes surrounding the forecasts.

3. Periodically report the accuracy of forecasts relative to observed data o Such reporting reveals any bias in the traffic forecasts, provides the empirical information necessary to estimate the uncertainty surrounding traffic forecasts, a history of accurate forecasts could be used to justify a narrower range when estimating the uncertainty around similar forecasts in the future.

IIJA Section 11205 Travel Demand Data and Modeling IIJA Section 11205, “Travel Demand Data and Modeling” requires the USDOT to carry out a study to better understand uncertainties associated with travel demand forecasting. The USDOT shall8:

• Develop best practices for States and metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) to use in forecasting travel demand for future investments in transportation improvements.

• Support more accurate travel demand forecasting by States and metropolitan planning organizations.

• Enhance the capacity of States and metropolitan planning organizations to forecast travel demand.

6 https://www.trb.org/NCHRP/Blurbs/179914.aspx p vii 7 NCHRP Research Report 934 8 Please go to BILLS-117hr3684enr.pdf for details.

https://www.congress.gov/117/bills/hr3684/BILLS-117hr3684enr.pdf https://www.trb.org/NCHRP/Blurbs/179914.aspx https://www.congress.gov/117/bills/hr3684/BILLS-117hr3684enr.pdf

• Support the transportation planning processes under sections 134 and 135 of title 23, United States Code.

Improving travel forecasting accuracy research Currently, there is an on-going FHWA research “Improving Travel Forecasting Accuracy”, which is to build upon NCHRP Research Report 934: Traffic Forecasting Accuracy Assessment Research to further investigate efficient and effective ways for improving travel forecasting accuracy. This research has accessed the feasibility of the research’s second recommendation:

Systematically archive traffic forecasts and collect observed data before and after the project opens. The contracting team is currently investigating the possibility of monitoring the accuracy of forecasts relative to observed data and the most effective way to provide the empirical information necessary for reasonable travel demand forecasts.

4. DRAFT PERFORMANCE OBJECTIVES:

The contractor will create and coordinate a proposed research plan with the FHWA’s Technical Point of Contact. The proposed research plan will identify sufficient detail to demonstrate an approach to implement IIJA Section 11205 with an emphasis on the following performance outcomes:

• Support more accurate travel demand forecasts by States and metropolitan planning organizations.

• Develop best practices for States and metropolitan planning organizations to use in forecasting travel demand for future investments in transportation improvements.

The performance objectives

• Identify and recruit four or more Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) to serve as potential champions for this FHWA research.

o Monitoring the accuracy of forecasts relative to observed data to support data-driven travel demand modeling and forecasting practices.

• Explore ways to evaluate the impact of transportation investments, including new roadway capacity, on travel behavior and travel demand, and congestion.

The performance goal is to enhance the capacity of States and Metropolitan Planning Organizations

• to monitor observed travel behavior responses to changes in external factors such as transportation capacity, pricing, land use patterns and macro-economic conditions, and

• to better forecast travel demand via evidence-based travel demand model updates.

Deliverables:

Deliverables must include a research proposal and execution of the research proposal. The contractor must propose a statement of payable milestones and deliverables as a part of their proposal.

5. REQUESTED CONTENT OF RESPONSES TO THIS SOURCES SOUGHT NOTICE

(SSN)

This SSN is not to be construed as a commitment on the part of the Government to award a contract nor does the Government intend to directly pay for any information or responses submitted as the result of this SSN. Interested parties, who consider their firms qualified to perform the above-listed services, are invited to submit responses to this SSN.

Any interested organization is invited to submit a Capability Statement to the identified Contracting Officer/Specialist via email by the response date.

Responses shall clearly identify:

1. Name, Address, Point of Contact;

Size Standard under NAICS code 541611 - All Other Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (size standard is $24.5 Million);

2. Identify all applicable classifications for your organization, such as:

a. Small Business?

b. Woman-owned business?

c. 8(a) business?

d. Large business

e. Small disadvantaged business

f. HUBZone business?

g. SDVOB business?

h. Other?

3. Description of any governmentwide vehicles your company is listed on, i.e. GSA OASIS.

4. Description of technical capabilities and relevant experience of potential staff to perform the work described in Section 4 of this document;

5. Relevant similar projects completed related to the anticipated objectives of the project with information on the client, scope, and service provided;

6. Any suggestions on how the SOO could be modified to provide best value to the

Government.

The Capability Statement shall be no more than five pages in length single-spaced with font size twelve or larger. Capability Statements may include an appendix with resumes (no page limit) or may link to longer resumes/bios on company websites.

6. PARTICIPATION IN THE MARKET RESEARCH IN NO WAY INFLUENCES THE

SOURCE SELECTION FOR THESE SERVICES.

This SSN is not to be construed as a commitment on the part of the Government to award a contract, nor does the Government intend to directly pay for any information or responses submitted as the result of this SSN.