6913G626Q300040_ICAO__database_SOW_v3.pdf

6913G626Q300040

U. S. Department of Transportation

Volpe National Transportation Systems Center

Energy Analysis Division, V325

Sustainable Aviation Fuel technoeconomic analyses and U.S. fuel deployment data for ICAO

Analyses and Trends Assessment

STATEMENT OF WORK

Project Background

The Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (Volpe Center) is providing technical and modeling expertise in support of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) technical activities at the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Committee for Aviation Environmental Protection (CAEP). An essential component of this effort includes modelling potential deployment and combustion of various fuel types over the next 25-50 years. Specifically, the Volpe Center is contributing to the collation and analysis of data for future fuel burn and trends assessment activities in support of Working Group 5 (WG5), the Modeling and Databases Group (MDG), and the Forecast and Economic Analysis Support Group (FESG) under ICAO CAEP. WG5 has established an annual cycle of database updates followed by modeling and analyses of the data to inform ICAO “Trends Assessment” updates. Volpe also contributes to the development and collation of the ICAO “SAF Rules of Thumb” and supports efforts to define fuel accounting and reporting methodologies and how these may work within the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation

(CORSIA).

Requirements

This research must:

1) Develop and update the Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) Rules of Thumb using domestic U.S. data on harmonized fuel production technoeconomic analyses. Engineers and scientists at Washington State University (WSU) have developed and updated the SAF Rules of Thumb for nearly a decade based on detailed knowledge of U.S. fuel production costs and financial data. Additional data collection, validation, and updates to new and previously analyzed pathways are required as part of this on-going research.

2) Collate, validate, and assess pathway parameters for U.S.-based SAF and co-processed fuel production announcements and data that will contribute to the Global SAF Capacity Database.

The Global SAF Capacity Database houses painstakingly collected and reviewed data used to estimate future deployment and combustion of various aviation fuel types over the next 25 to 50 years in compliance with the trends assessment needs for ICAO CAEP. The Global SAF Capacity Database has been evaluated in ICAO/CAEP and approved for CAEP use for future ICAO “Trends Assessments.”

3) Determine and present details of existing fuel accounting and reporting systems including chain of custody, registries that document transfers and sale, and use of these systems to demonstrate compliance with voluntary and regulated markets. Compare and contrast UNFCC and CORSIA programs that may use these systems. This work will help inform potential future decisions regarding if CORSIA will/should participate in each system.

https://www.icao.int/SAF/saf-rules-of-thumb https://www.icao.int/SAF/saf-rules-of-thumb

Objective

The objective of this research is to estimate future fuel availability and combustion by the aviation sector to support future ICAO information dissemination globally and data management. This information is a critical input used to inform subsequent ICAO trends assessments. In addition, this work contributes to a broader effort to assess how operations, fleet changes and associated efficiency improvements, fuels, and market-based measures affect the demand for fuel by the aviation sector out to 2050 and 2070 in the ICAO “Trends Assessment.”

Government-Furnished Information

• Aviation fuel production cost data, deployment announcements and other information to be incorporated into the SAF Rules of Thumb and domestic fuel production database.

Tasking

Task 1: 2027 Rules of Thumb updates

WG5 has agreed that refinements are needed on an ongoing basis to maintain the SAF Rules of Thumb and incorporate additional near-term production pathways into the dataset. The contractor shall propose technoeconomic analysis updates and revisions to the SAF Rules of Thumb to WG5 for agreement, followed by implementation of the modeling refinements.

Deliverables:

• Provide detailed technoeconomic updates, methodological revisions, and addtional fuel conversion pathways for agreement by WG5 – Due February 1, 2027

• Update SAF Rules of Thumb following the agreed methodology and data updates – Due April 30, 2027.

Task 2: 2027 U.S. SAF Capacity Database Update

Ongoing data collection, verification, and validation of U.S. production and deployment plans are required to align with developments in the aviation fuels sector. The contractor shall collect data from WG5 experts, Volpe, and FAA, incorporate those data into the U.S.-specific database, and provide those data to project stakeholders for further modeling in support of the fuel projections analyses due in 2027.

Deliverables:

• Provide updated U.S. modeling data necessary to execute the U.S. portion of the Global SAF Capacity Database trends assessment update – Due May 19, 2027.

• Support fuel projection modelling efforts – Due May 31, 2027

Task 3: Study on Fuel Accounting Systems for International Aviation

Ongoing research on chain of custody systems, registries, and compliance mechanisms in voluntary and regulated frameworks. Two chapters (Introduction and objectives, and terms and definitions) are under review. Current work focuses on drafting the remaining three chapters, covering fundamental concepts, a comparison between the ICAO and other frameworks, and an overview of existing accounting systems.

Deliverables:

• A report presented to ICAO WG5 with the updated information on fuel accounting methodologies in relevant regulatory and voluntary frameworks – Due March 31, 2027

[Optional] Task 4: 2028 Rules of Thumb updates

WG5 has agreed that refinements are needed on an ongoing basis to maintain the SAF Rules of Thumb and incorporate additional near-term production pathways into the dataset. The contractor shall propose technoeconomic analysis updates and revisions to the SAF Rules of Thumb to WG5 for agreement, followed by implementation of the modeling refinements.

Deliverables:

• Provide detailed technoeconomic updates and methodological revisions , and addtional fuel conversion pathways for agreement by WG5 – Due February 1, 2028

• Update SAF rules of thumb following the agreed methodology and data updates – Due April 30, 2028.

[Optional] Task 5: 2028 U.S. SAF Capacity Database Update

Ongoing data collection, verification, and validation of U.S. production and deployment plans are required to align with developments in the aviation fuels sector. The contractor shall collect data from WG5 experts, Volpe, and FAA, incorporate those data into the U.S.-specific database, and provide those data to project stakeholders for further modeling in support of the fuel projections analyses due in 2028.

Deliverables:

• Provide updated U.S. modeling data necessary to execute the U.S. portion of the Global SAF Capacity Database trends assessment update – Due May 19, 2028.

• Support fuel projection modelling efforts – Due May 31, 2028

[Optional] Task 6: Finalize Study on Fuel Accounting Systems for International Aviation

Ongoing research on chain of custody systems, registries, and compliance mechanisms in voluntary and regulated frameworks. Future work focuses on revising and finalizing the report based on ICAO feedback, revisions, and analysis requests.

Deliverables:

• A report presented to ICAO WG5 with the finalized information on fuel accounting methodologies in relevant regulatory and voluntary frameworks – Due March 31, 2028

Travel

Travel by two relevant personnel to an international location such as Montreal, Canada, for three days will be required under CLIN 00900 and optional CLIN 01200. Both of these CLINs are NOT TO

EXCEED $5,000.

Period of Performance and Deliverable Due Dates

Below please find a table of deliverables with due dates. It is expected that all project work will conclude by September 30, 2028.

CLIN Task No.

Description Deliverable* Format Due Date

0100 1

2027 Rules of Thumb Updates

Updated technoeconomic data and methods

Updated SAF Rules of Thumb

Word/PDF, Excel file

2/1/27

4/30/27

0200 2

2027 U.S. SAF

Capacity Database Updated Data

Updated database, summaries of data for external review database, CSV, Excel, etc.

5/31/27

0300 3

Study on Fuel Accounting Systems for International Aviation

A report presented to ICAO WG5

Word/PDF

3/31/27

[Optional]

2028 Rules of Thumb Updates techneconomic data and methods

Updated SAF Rules of Thumb

Word/PDF, Excel file

2/1/28

4/30/28

[Optional] 5

2028 U.S. SAF

Capacity Database Updated Data

Updated database, summaries of data for external review database, CSV, Excel, etc.

5/31/28

[Optional]

Study on Fuel Accounting Systems for International Aviation

A report presented to ICAO WG5

Word/PDF

3/31/28

0700 1-3 Monthly Status Reports

Monthly Status Reports

PDF

15th of each month through May 31, 2027

0800 1-3 Monthly teleconferences Notes Zoom, TEAMS, Google meet, etc.

At least monthly through May 31, [NOT TO

EXCEED

$5,000]

1-3 Travel

Estimated two annual international trips (i.e., Montreal, Canada) of duration

Travel Twice annually through May 31, CLIN Task No.

Description Deliverable* Format Due Date three days for two personnel

01000 [optional] 4-6 Monthly Status

Reports

Monthly Status Reports

PDF

15th of each month through May 31, 2028

01100 [optional] 4-6 Monthly teleconferences Notes Zoom, TEAMS, Google meet, etc.

At least monthly through May 31, 01200 [optional, NOT TO

EXCEED

$5,000]

4-6 Travel

Estimated two annual international trips (i.e., Montreal, Canada) of duration three days for two personnel

Travel Twice annually through May 31, *All electronic deliverables will be emailed to the Volpe Center technical point of contact (TPOC), Kristin Lewis (kristin.lewis@dot.gov)

Acceptance Criteria

To be accepted, deliverables shall be emailed to the project TPOC, Kristin Lewis, at kristin.lewis@dot.gov. The deliverables will be reviewed by the Government for compliance with the SOW, timeliness, and format. The TPOC will acknowledge acceptance of each deliverable by email.

mailto:kristin.lewis@dot.gov mailto:kristin.lewis@dot.gov