21QB058 SOO-Lightning Probability Tool-Ver 2.pdf

STATEMENT OF OBJECTIVES

FOR

UPGRADE THE 45 WS LIGHTNING PROBABILITY TOOL

(Revised 01 Jun 2021)

1. Description: Upgrade the 45 WS lightning probability tool to include the mean wind speed in the lightning flow regimes. The lightning flow regime is based on the average wind direction in the 1000-700 mb layer at the 1200 UTC weather balloons at Miami, Tampa, Jacksonville, and 1000 UTC at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), as discussed in the references below. The lightning flow regime is essentially the position and strength of the subtropical ridge relative to CCAFS and NASA Kennedy Space Center. Develop new optimized logistic regression equations to predict lightning probability for each month of May-Oct as in the present lightning probability tool. Compare the performance of the new equations to the present equations. If the performance of the upgraded tool is sufficiently better than the current tool, implement the upgraded tool on the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) used by the 45 WS in the Morrell Operations Center on Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. The implementation will include a GUI similar to that in the original tool. See Bauman and Lambert (2012) and other documents in ‘References’ below for details.

Part-1: Include the average wind speed in the lightning flow regime as a candidate predictor variable stratified by the individual flow regimes. Use the stepwise predictor selection method based on ‘additional new independent variance explained’ used in the present tool. If wind speed is selected as a useful predictor variable, logistic regression equations for those flow regimes and applicable months will need to be developed to include the new predictors selected.

Part-2: The present tool uses data from 1989-2011 (23 seasons). This project will have 9 more seasons available

(2012-2020), an increase of 39%. If possible, the 2021 lightning season (May-Oct) should also be included, a 43% increase over the current Tool. Use those additional seasons to calculate the previous predictor variables and the new average wind speed predictor and use that along with the previous data to develop new optimized logistic regression equations.

- The government shall provide the data used to develop the current tool, i.e. all the candidate predictor variables for May-Oct 1989-2011.

- If needed, the government can provide the weather balloon data for the new seasons (2012-2019), but the vendor will need to calculate all the required predictor variables. In addition, the government can provide the lighting 1-day persistence data, if needed.

Part-3: Develop a new low speed lightning flow regime based on the mean speed in the lightning flow regime layer (1000-700 mb). Determine the optimum threshold for the new low speed regime, e.g. mean speed < 8 kt.

Determine if using this new low speed regime increases forecast performance with statistical significance

In Part-1, Part-2, and Part-3, the performance comparison shall include Probability Of Detection, Probability Of False Alarm, True Skill Statistic, Heidke Skill Score, Critical Success Index, Briar Skill Score, Bias, reliability diagram, and sharpness. The performance comparison shall also include the Ratio Skill Score versus various baselines to include the present tool, monthly lighting climatology, daily lightning climatology, flow regime climatology, and 1-day persistence.

The decision on whether to implement the upgraded tool on MIDDS shall be made by the 45 WS.

Period of Performance: Depends on contract award, but will begin in FY21 with operational implementation in MIDDS, if justified, expected by Sep 22.

3. Deliverables:

a. Written report documenting the development process and results.

b. Briefing of the development process and results to the 45 WS.

c. Implementation of upgraded tool into MIDDS, if justified.

4. Point of Contact: William Roeder, 45 WS/WXT, william.roeder@us.af.mil, (321) 853-8410

5. References:

Bauman, W. H, and W. C. Lambert, 2012: Objective Lightning Probability Forecasting for Kennedy Space Center and Cape

Canaveral Air Force Station, Phase IV, NASA Contractor Report CR-2012-216312, Kennedy Space Center, FL, 29 pp.

[https://science.ksc.nasa.gov/amu/final-reports/objective-ltg-fcst-phase3.pdf]

Crawford, W. C., 2010: Objective Lightning Probability Forecasting for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Phase III, NASA Contractor Report CR-2010-216292, Kennedy Space Center, FL, 34 pp.

[https://science.ksc.nasa.gov/amu/final-reports/objective-ltg-fcst-phase3.pdf]

Lambert, W. C., and W. P. Roeder, 2008: Update to the lightning probability forecast equations at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida, 2nd International Lightning Meteorology Conference, Tucson, AZ, 24-25 April 2008, 16 pp.

Lambert, W. C., 2007: Objective Lightning Probability Forecasting for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Phase II, NASA Contractor Report CR-2007-214732, Kennedy Space Center, FL, 59 pp.

[https://science.ksc.nasa.gov/amu/final-reports/objective-ltg-fcst-phase2.pdf]

Lambert, W. C., M. Wheeler, and W. P. Roeder, 2006: Lightning probability forecasts at Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida. 2006 ILDC/ILMC Conferences, 26-27 April 2006

Lambert, W. C., and M. Wheeler, 2005: Objective Lightning Probability Forecasting for Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, NASA Contractor Report CR-2005-212564, Kennedy Space Center, FL, 54 pp.

[https://science.ksc.nasa.gov/amu/final-reports/ objective-ltg-fcst-phase1.pdf]

Neumann, C. J., 1971: Thunderstorm forecasting at Cape Kennedy, Florida, utilizing multiple regression techniques, NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS SOS-85

Panor, J., 2020: Correlation of mean wind speed in the 45 WS lightning flow regimes to lightning probability at CCAFS/KSC, FIT Intern Report, TBD pp., in development as of 21 Feb 21, expected completion by Mar 21 mailto:illiam.roeder@us.af.mil https://science.ksc.nasa.gov/amu/final-reports/objective-ltg-fcst-phase2.pdf https://science.ksc.nasa.gov/amu/final-reports/%20objective-ltg-fcst-ph