Sources_Sought_PWS_2.docx

Sources Sought The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting market research to identify qualified businesses capable of updating the Klamath Falls river basin model 10 (RBM10) as described in the attached performance work statement. This sources sought notice is not a request for quote or proposal, and the Government is not committed to awarding a purchase order or contract as a result of this announcement. Information received will be used solely for planning purposes to assist the Government in determining an appropriate acquisition strategy. The Government will not reimburse any costs associated with preparing a response to this notice.

NAICS Code: 541690 Other Scientific and Technical Consulting Services Size Standard: $19.0 Million (or current SBA size standard applicable at time of posting) Please indicate in your response whether your business qualifies as a small or large business under the above NAICS size standard.

Respondents shall demonstrate their ability to meet all technical and performance requirements described in the Performance Work Statement (PWS). Capability statements must clearly address the vendor’s capacity, expertise, and experience relevant to the following areas:

1. RBM10 Model Expertise and Environmental Modeling Capability Demonstrated experience implementing, modifying, calibrating, and validating large‑river water‑temperature models such as RBM10 or closely related hydrodynamic/water‑quality models.

Ability to support USGS scientists by providing temperature datasets, calibration site selection, and participation in joint calibration/validation review sessions.

2. Water Temperature Data Compilation and Management Ability to compile, quality‑check, and consolidate multi‑year water temperature datasets (2024–2026) from multiple sources for use in the post‑dam‑removal calibration period.

Experience transmitting environmental datasets to federal scientific teams using standard formats, metadata, and data‑integrity protocols.

3. Counterfactual Model Scenario Development Capability to run RBM10 for both “with‑dam” and “post‑dam” scenarios, including identifying appropriate spatial/temporal model domains.

Demonstrated experience conducting counterfactual or alternative‑condition scenario modeling in environmental or hydrological contexts.

4. Comparative Model Analysis Experience comparing outputs across multiple model types, including prior studies such as Perry et al. (2011), TMDL analyses, and relicensing‑related thermal models.

Ability to evaluate consistency, deviations, and methodological differences between model outputs.

5. Biological Temperature Metrics Capability to calculate biologically relevant temperature indicators, including those tied to fall Chinook salmon migration, spawning conditions, and egg‑incubation viability under dam‑in versus dam‑out conditions.

Experience applying ecological or fisheries‑related metrics in a modeling context is strongly encouraged.

6. Manuscript Preparation and Scientific Publication Demonstrated ability to prepare scientific manuscripts suitable for peer‑reviewed journals, including literature review, methods descriptions, model‑calibration write‑ups, results summaries, and interpretation of biological relevance.

Ability to revise manuscripts in response to peer‑review feedback and submit finalized versions consistent with journal requirements.

7. Scientific Presentation Capability Experience developing and delivering presentations at scientific conferences, including clear communication of modeling approaches, environmental impacts, and fisheries‑related findings.

8. Schedule Performance Capability to meet all performance milestones and deliverables specified in the PWS, including manuscript development, comparative modeling, temperature‑metric calculations, and presentation preparation.

Responses to this announcement must be submitted via email only to Anthony_berry@ios.doi.gov and must be received in full no later than July 20th, 2026, at 8:00 AM Pacific Time.

Performance Work Statement Analysis and publication of Klamath dam removal effects on simulated water temperatures

1.0 Introduction and Background

The River Basin Model-10 (RBM10) water temperature model developed for the Klamath River served as an underlying driver in the biological and economic analyses for the Secretarial Determination process for the Klamath Basin Restoration Agreement (KBRA). As such, the development and application of this model has been thoroughly vetted, externally peer reviewed, and published (Perry and others, 2011). Following that effort, RBM10 was extended to the Trinity River (Jones and others, 2016). Currently, RBM10 is being updated to improve geometry and meteorological inputs for the Klamath River for use in evaluating Trinity River Management scenarios on water temperatures of the lower Klamath River.

2.0 Scope

The scope of this Performance Work Statement (PWS) is to use the updated model to analyze the effects of recent Klamath River Dam removals on water temperature and publish the results in a peer-reviewed journal. This effort requires the vendor to undertake several additional tasks required to use the model to analyze dam removal. These tasks include compiling additional water temperature data for calibration and validation, supporting USGS’s calibration efforts, running the model for dams in and dams out scenarios, evaluating relative to previous models, and calculating key temperature metrics. The vendor will then summarize this analysis in a manuscript to be submitted to a special journal issue on Klamath River Dam removal.

Specific objectives include:

1) Compiling water temperature data collecting during in the post-dam era (2024–2026),

2) Using RBM10 as a counterfactual to compare the with-dam and post-dam thermal regimes,

3) Summarizing results relative to previous models and key biological metrics, and

4) Publishing the manuscript.

3.0 Applicable Documents

Perry, R.W., Risley, J.C., Brewer, S.J., Jones, E.C., and Rondorf, D.W., 2011, Simulating daily water temperatures of the Klamath River under dam removal and climate change scenarios: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 20111243, 78 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20111243

Jones, E.C., Perry, R.W., Risley, J.C., Som, N.A., and Hetrick, N.J., 2016, Construction, calibration, and validation of the RBM10 water temperature model for the Trinity River, northern California: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2016–1056, 46 p., http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/ofr20161056.

4.0 Technical Requirements

Tasks associated with each objective are as follows:

Objective 1 Task 1 The RBM10 water temperature model needs to be calibrated and validated for the post-dam removal period (2024-2026). This task requires the vendor to collate and compile existing water temperature data that can be used to calibrate and validate the model for the post-dam removal period.

Task 2 Support USGS in the calibration and validation of RBM10 using measured post-dam temperature data. This includes transmitting water temperature data to USGS, determining the best sets of locations for calibration, and working with USGS to evaluate calibration results.

Objective 2 Task 1 Run RBM10 as a counterfactual to compare the with-dam and post-dam thermal regimes. This task involve running RBM10 for the post-dam-removal period to understand how dam removal has affected water temperatures relative to the counterfactual with dams remaining in place. The vendor will collaborate with USGS to identify the appropriate model scenarios, including spatial and temporal extent and general framing of the model runs.

Objective 3 Task 1 Compare results from RBM10 to without-dam temperatures predicted by previous models (e.g. Perry et al., 2011, Total Maximum Daily Load [TMDL] studies, and PacifiCorp’s dam relicensing analyses).

Task 2 Calculate key biologically relevant temperature metrics. For example, metrics should focus on events such as the timing of when temperatures are suitable for fall chinook salmon migration and spawning, and egg incubation. Compare the metrics between dams in and dams out scenarios.

Objective 4 Task 1 Write the manuscript, with support from USGS, which will include literature review to place Klamath River dam removals with the worldwide dam removal context, methods for required model updates to run the analysis, calibration and validation results, and summary of metrics evaluating dam removal scenarios.

Task 2 Submit the manuscript and revise the article in response to peer review comments received on the submitted manuscript.

5.0 Deliverables

In addition to data sets and source describe under 4.0 above, deliverables will include one peer-reviewed manuscript and one project presentation.

Peer-reviewed manuscript:

Write and publish a peer-reviewed manuscript that describes model structure, input data, calibration, and validation, and use of the model for evaluating management actions. The length and format of the manuscript should conform with journal guidelines and include supplementary materials sufficient for detailing the methods and results from Objectives 1-4 above. The pre-publication draft manuscript will be provided for review to collaborators, with a final peer-reviewed publication to follow.

Presentations: Present findings at a regional science conference such as the annual Klamath Basin Monitoring Program conference or similar. The presentation length will conform with conference guidelines. The consultant will provide the presentation in Power Point format.

Timeline:

We are seeking delivery of technical report and presentation to be submitted to the project manager by December 31, 2027. An expected timeline for the completion of each objective is as follows:

Objective 1: October 31, 2026 Objective 2: November 31, 2026 Objective 3: December 31, 2026 Objective 4: February 1, 2027 Presentation: June 1, 2027 Draft Publication: February 1, 2027 Final Publication: September 30, 2027

6.0 Performance Standards and Monitoring Methods

The contractor will hold monthly meetings with the technical liaison to review project progress.