ATTACHMENT_02-_Statement_of_Work_FBO.docx

124586819C0018 PNW LaGrande, OR Elk Study

ATTACHMENT 02

STATEMENT OF WORK

STATISTICAL MODELING ANALYSIS ELK NUTRIDION AND HABITAT

PNW RESEARCH STATION, LA GRANDE, OR FORESTRY AND RANGE SCIENCES LAB

TECHICAL POINT OF CONTACT:

Dr. Michael Wisdom Email: michael.wisdom@usda.gov Telephone: 541-962-6532

CONTRACTING OFFICER REPRESENTATIVE (COR):

Ryan Kennedy Email: ryan.kennedy@usda.gov Telephone: 541-962-6568

PERIOD OF PERFORMANCE

July 31, 2019 through July 30, 2020

SPECIFICATIONS & DELIVERABLES

Work consists of the following items and deliverables:

Item 1--Conduct statistical and modeling analyses to finish elk nutritiion and habitat use models to improve their management utility for application in the Blue Mountains of Oregon and Washington, in response to additional, major revisions needed based on management input over the past 3 years. These analyses require statistical expertise provided by Eagle Environmental, Inc., who has unique, nationally-renowned long-term modeling expertise and pubications on this topic with the PNW Research Station, Starkey Team. Eagle Environmental, Inc. co-authorship on scientific publicaitons is required as a necessary part of the analyses and modeling work outlined here, and all work outlined under this contract is part of his co-authorship on manuscripts submitted for publication, as required by Forest Service policy and ethics of authorship. No other statistician or biometrician is ethically allowed to serve as a substitute co-author or can provide the associated biometrician expertise.

Deliverable 1 for Item 1--Conduct a revised model selection process for nutrition and habitat use models and provide analysis results and statistical interpretations. Use appropriate statistical measures such as AIC and significance levels to guide selection process. Provide analysis results before or by August 1, 2019. Deliverables will include all final statistical results for completing model selection process and supporting computer programs.

Deliverable 2 for Item 1--Conduct a revised model validation process for habitat use models, based on input from collaborators in the modeling process. Use appropriate statistical measures such as correlation coefficients of predicted versus observed data. Provide analysis results on or before October 15, 2019. Deliverables will include all final statistical results for completing model validation process and supporting computer programs.

Item 2--Building on above deliverables, participate as a co-author in the publication process for submission of a manuscript of results to the Journal of Wildlife Management on the Blue Mountains elk nutrition and habitat use models. The current Blue Mountains elk modelng process requires Eagle Environmental, Inc. to participate as a co-author in analysis and writing of publications, as required by Forest Service policy on ethics of authorship for sceintific publications, and because of his unique expertise in responding to peer reviews on highly technical statistical approaches upon which the publications are based.

Deliverables for Item 2--Participate in writing and data summaries for submission to Journal of Wildlife Management by 30 November 2019.

Item 3--Conduct preliminary elk nutrition and habitat use analysis and modeling, encompassing both model selection and model validation processes, with data on nutrition and animal locations estimated or collected in 9 study areas in the 8,2-million-acre Clearwater Basin of north-central Idaho.This model selection and validation process will be based on the same statistical foundational approach as that developed and used by Ryan Nieson, only available from Eagle Environmental, Inc., for analyzing and modeling elk nutrition and habitat use as he conducted in Oregon and Washigton with PNW scientists.

Deliverable 1 for Item 3--Preliminary habitat use model selection will be completed by 1 March, 2020. The time and statistical expertise required to conduct this analysis is extremely challenging, owing to the many study areas, voluminous data, myriad environmental covariates involved, and the inference space of 8.2 million acres of the Clearwater Basin. Needed statisticial expertise and supporting analysis programs can be provided only by Eagle Environmental, Inc., to meet deadlines set by Forest Service management and that build on Blue Mountains analyses described above.

Deliverable 2 for Item 3--Preliminary validation of habitat use models will be completed by 1 July, 2020. The time required and the unique expertise can only be delivered by Eagle Environmental to conduct this analysis and finish it according to strict timelines set by Forest Service management, and is extremely challenging for reasons described above for Deliverable 1 of Item 3.

Deliverable 3 of Item 3--Complete the final stages of analysis needed to complete nutrition and habitat use modeling.This work is currently unfunded but can be negotiated under this 5-year contract when funding becomes availble. Negotiated costs of finishing this deliverable will depend on challenges encountered during work on the preliminary analyses and modeling, as indicator of time required to complete this final, unfunded stage.

Deliverable 4 of Item 3--Building on above deliverables, participate as a co-author in the publication process for submission of a manuscript to Journal of Wildlife Management or similar scientific journal on the Clearwater elk nutrition and habitat use models. The current Clearwater elk modelng process requires Eagle Environmental, Inc. to participate as co-author in analysis and writing of publications, as required by Forest Service policy on ethics of authorship for sceintific publications, and because of his unique expertise in responding to Journal peer reviews on highly technical statistical approaches upon which the publications are based. This work is currently unfunded but can be negotiated under this 5-year contract when funding becomes available. Negotiated costs of finishing this deliverable will depend on tractability of completing the preliminary analyses and modeling.

Item 4-Finish analyses needed for scientific publication on elk and deer hunter distributions, behavior, and success in relation to environmental conditions, using data collected at Starkey Experimental Forest and Range, using similar statistical and modeling methods and analyses provided by Eagle Environmental for Items 1 through 4.

Deliverable 1 for Item 4--Finish models built and validated that characterize the environmental conditions associated with successful and unsuccessful deer and elk hunters at Starkey Experimental Forest and Range, using data acquired from 2008-2013. Use methods developed and applied for Items 1 through 4. Provide the developed and validated models on or before 1, December, 2019.

Deliverable 2 for Item 4--Participate as a co-author in publishing deliverable 1 of item 4 in manuscript preparation for journal publications, which is currently unfunded but can be added to this sole source contract once timing and specific work requirements become known related to manuscript preparation and work through to publication are known.

Attachment 02