Leveraging complex observational data to understand human influenza transmission

The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases awarded the Regents of the University of Michigan $2.959 million on August 25, 2026, under the Allergy and Infectious Diseases Research program (CFDA 93.855) to support the Michigan Influenza Transmission Research Center's observational studies of human influenza transmission.

The award funds three coordinated research projects examining influenza transmission through the epidemiologic triangle framework of pathogen, host, and environment. Project 1 investigates how virus dynamics and coinfections with other respiratory pathogens relate to transmission risk. Project 2 examines host immunity by leveraging a 15-year household study specimen collection to define how the specificity of humoral and cellular immune responses to influenza glycoproteins influences infectiousness and susceptibility to infection. Project 3 models the impacts of environmental factors on transmission using data from three different household studies. The research builds on continuously funded cohorts of observational studies of influenza and other respiratory virus transmission dating to 2010, incorporating robust analysis and inference methods to dissect transmission events from real-world data.

Work is performed at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan. The performance period runs through June 30, 2031. The assistance type is a Project Grant.

Abstract

Overall despite major advancements in the prevention of severe influenza infection through vaccination, treatment, and air quality, influenza still accounts for substantial morbidity and mortality worldwide and in the united states. While animal models and experimental systems allow for precise control and isolation of specific factors that may contribute to influenza transmission, the findings often do not completely generalize to human influenza transmission. The unifying theme of the proposed michigan influenza transmission research center (MI-ITRC) is that impactful insights into the transmission of influenza viruses in humans necessarily derive from data- and specimen-rich observational studies of human to human transmission in "natural" settings. Our research team has led the field in the planning and implementation of observational studies of infection with and transmission of influenza and other respiratory viruses with a continuously funded set of cohorts since 2010. These studies contend with many challenges that stem from the complexities of real world data. To that end, our research team has also led the field in incorporating robust analysis and inference methods to dissect the elements of transmission as we observe each event. Our program is organized around the conceptual framework of the epidemiologic triangle of pathogen, host, and environment. Project 1 examines how virus dynamics relate to transmission and how coinfections with other respiratory pathogens affect transmission risk. Project 2 examines host immunity, leveraging a rich accumulated specimen collection from a 15 year household study to define how the specificity of humoral and cellular immune responses to influenza glycoproteins influences infectiousness and susceptibility to infection. Drawing on data from three different household studies, project 3 models the impacts of environmental and human behavioral factors on transmission. Consistent with the unifying theme human influenza transmission, the resource development core will draw on the experience of the team to develop standardized protocols for household studies of respiratory virus transmission, a rich biorepository of specimens with linked metadata, a dataset on the combinatorial impact of environmental factors on viral decay, a new device for measuring the PH of exhaled breath and respiratory droplets, and a suite of software packages to make transmission models more accessible to the field. The administrative core will provide an infrastructure for regulatory compliance, financial reporting, data and resource sharing, and communication. Through successful execution of this research plan, the MI-ITRC will advance the study of human influenza transmission.