Ocean carbon dioxide removal (CDR), with the potential for 5 gigatons annual CO2 removals, will be crucial for removing the 10 gigatons CO2 annually from the atmosphere by mid-century necessary to…

Ocean carbon dioxide removal (CDR), with the potential for 5 gigatons annual CO2 removals, will be crucial for removing the 10 gigatons CO2 annually from the atmosphere by mid-century necessary to stay within 1.5-2C of warming. The problem, however, is that commercially available tools for comprehensive MRV of ocean CDR do not yet exist, leaving ocean CDR developers, researchers, carbon credit buyers, and policymakers without the necessary instruments to assess the effectiveness, safety, and performance of ocean CDR strategies. Subtidal aims to address this critical GAP by developing the ocean carbon flux grid, a technology that integrates real-time, three-dimensional, high-frequency carbonate chemistry sensing with novel eulerian control-volume cloud-based carbon flux analytics frameworks to transform ocean carbonate chemistry concentration sensor measurements into continuous volumetric carbon flux measurements (or, net carbon drawdown). This technology has the potential to revolutionize the MRV of ocean CDR by offering the first accurate and scalable solution for measuring, reporting, and verifying ocean carbon removals. In this NOAA sbir phase I project, subtidal proposes to develop, deploy, and validate its carbon flux analytics frameworks to transform three-dimensional high-resolution carbonate chemistry sensor data into continuous volumetric carbon flux measurements in a BI-directional tidal estuary. The phase I research will also assess the scientific and commercial viability of using volumetric carbon flux to quantify atmospheric-ocean carbon drawdown for MRV of ocean CDR. Following a successful phase I, subtidal will leverage these carbon flux analytics frameworks and research learnings to develop a pilot-scale ocean carbon flux grid to validate, pilot, refine, and broaden the technology's applicability across ocean CDR approaches in preparation for commercial scaling in phase III. The commercial potential is vast, with the estimated long-term annual carbon sequestration of ocean CDR approaches reaching up to 5 GT CO2/year and $500 billion annually in carbon credit revenue. With ocean CDR MRV revenue estimated at 5% of that annual ocean carbon credit revenue, the ocean CDR MRV market has the potential to reach $1.25 billion annually by 2030 and $25 billion annually by 2050.