Title: vulnerability to drought and wildfire and risk aversion impacts on decisions 3 2 project abstract summary project period: 2 1 2025 through 1 31 2028 purpose: this project aims to evaluate the…

This Project Grant award from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) under the Water Resources Research Act (WRRA) Program (CFDA 15.805) provides $620,000 in funding to Texas A&M AgriLife Research to evaluate the vulnerability of urban, agricultural, and ecological sectors in the Southern Ogallala Aquifer (SOA) region to drought and wildfires. The project aims to estimate the economic losses by sector and county, simulate crop yields and irrigation water usage under various management strategies, investigate the impact of risk aversion on adaptation decisions, and develop a modeling framework to assess vulnerability reduction through adaptation strategies such as water conservation and multi-sector cooperation. The research outputs will include simulated vulnerabilities, the impact of risk aversion on user behaviors, and an executable model to simulate vulnerabilities and optimal adaptation portfolios. These outcomes will be disseminated through publications, conferences, and the project website to benefit water stakeholders and policymakers in water-deficit regions. The award period is from February 1, 2025 to January 31, 2028, and no sub-recipients are involved.

Title: vulnerability to drought and wildfire and risk aversion impacts on decisions 3 2 project abstract summary project period: 2 1 2025 through 1 31 2028 purpose: this project aims to evaluate the vulnerability of urban (municipality and industry), agricultural, and ecological sectors to drought and wildfires and the impacts of adaptation strategies on reducing vulnerability in the southern portion of the ogallala aquifer (SOA) region. The vulnerability to droughts and other hazards will be identified as the economic loss by sectors and counties. The adaptation strategies include water conservation, agricultural crop mix land use, and multi-sector cooperation strategies to improve water usage efficiency, improve drought management, increase regional water supply, secure urban and agricultural water usage, reduce the vulnerability to drought and hazards, and protect the ecological system. The researchers will also examine the impact of risk aversion preference on the sectors water use behavior and management strategies changes. The SOA region is used as a case study in this project, but the framework can be developed and applied to other regions with water deficit issues. Activities: the researchers propose to: 1) estimate the response function of the ogallala aquifer water table to recharge, withdraw, and current level. 2) simulate the naturalized river flow in the canadian and red river basins. 3) simulate the crop yield and irrigation water usage under various management strategies and climate change. 4) estimate the risk of wildfires based on historical climate data. 5) investigate the vulnerability of the SOA region to drought and wildfire and the impact of adaptation strategies on vulnerability reduction. And 6) investigate the impact of risk aversion preferences on vulnerability reduction and adaptation decisions. Outcomes: our work will produce 1) the simulated vulnerability of each sector to drought, wildfire, and other hazards, and the reduction of vulnerability by taking the optimal adaptation portfolio under various climate conditions. 2) the impact of risk aversion preference on water user behaviors and adoption of adaptation strategies 3) an executable version of the model that allows changing model parameters to simulate a new set of vulnerabilities and optimal adaptation portfolio. The outcomes 1-3 will be posted on the project website to the public. 4) the team will present the scientific findings at professional conferences, such as the agricultural applied economics association (AAEA) and american geophysical union (AGU) annual meetings 5) at least 4 journal articles are expected from this project targeting high-ranked journals, such as water resources research, journal of water resources planning and management, journal of the american water resources association, and american journal of agricultural economics. Beneficiaries: water stakeholders in the SOA region, and policymakers in the water deficit areas will benefit from this project. The researchers anticipate this effort will yield benefits in terms of information on the timing and location of these decisions and how they might be altered by climate change to reduce the vulnerability. The researchers will evaluate how the risk aversion level impacts the water users decision-making, especially the decision of investment. The researchers also believe our modeling framework would provide an important tool and information for future planning reducing the vulnerability and strengthening the economic basis for decisions potentially resulting in a lower cost, more economically efficient water supply and demand situation in the region. Sub-recipient: no sub-recipient is included in this project.