Caig: discovering tectonic regime transitions via advanced computational techniques

The National Science Foundation Office of Integrative Activities awarded Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute $864,987 on August 15, 2026, under the Geosciences program (CFDA 47.050) to investigate tectonic regime transitions in rocky planets through advanced computational techniques.

The project develops a computational framework for studying how planets shift among different styles of interior and surface motion as they cool and evolve, with particular focus on comparing Earth's active plate tectonics with Venus and exoplanetary conditions. The research will create probabilistic descriptions of tectonic behavior, reusable computational workflows, curated simulation products, and training materials. Work includes developing efficient data-driven models that approximate outputs of geodynamic calculations, analyzing simulation outputs to define reproducible indicators of tectonic behavior, and using uncertainty-guided sampling to focus simulations on scientifically informative regions of parameter space.

The award also supports STEM workforce development through student training in geoscience, applied mathematics, and computing, with selected tools, data, and educational materials shared for broader scientific and public use.

Performance of work occurs at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute in Troy, New York, with a period of performance from the award date through July 31, 2029. The assistance type is Project Grant.

Abstract

Earth is the only known planet with active plate tectonics over long periods, while venus, which is similar in size, appears to have followed a different path. Plate tectonics arise from motions of the solid rock in the planet?s interior. This project will investigate how rocky planets shift among styles of interior and surface motion as they cool and evolve. The goal is to learn when they are more likely to support moving plates, a rigid outer shell, or occasional shifts between these states. A better understanding of these transitions will help scientists compare earth with venus and with rocky planets around other STARS. The project will advance understanding of planetary interiors through advanced computer modeling and data-driven analysis. The project will further benefit society through development of the stem workforce through student training in geoscience, applied mathematics, and computing. IT will also share selected tools, data, and educational materials for broader scientific and public use. The project will develop a computational framework for studying regime transitions in mantle convection models with quantified uncertainty. The research will analyze simulation outputs to define reproducible indicators of tectonic behavior, develop efficient data driven models that approximate selected outputs of expensive geodynamic calculations, and use uncertainty guided sampling to focus additional simulations on scientifically informative regions of parameter space. These methods will be applied to planetary conditions relevant to earth and venus, with attention to how prior thermal evolution and initial conditions affect long term outcomes. The expected results will include a probabilistic description of tectonic behavior, reusable computational workflows, curated simulation products, and training materials. The work will advance predictive geodynamics while also contributing general methods for complex physical systems in which history dependence and regime changes limit traditional modeling. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.- subawards are not planned for this award.