RUI: developing a predictive 3D model of strain accommodation during progressive folding of sandstone

The National Science Foundation Division of Earth Sciences awarded Trinity University $210,670 on July 1, 2026, under the Geosciences program (CFDA 47.050) to develop a predictive three-dimensional model of strain accommodation during progressive folding of sandstone and to study fluid flow dynamics in fault-propagation folds.

The research focuses on the San Rafael Monocline in central Utah, where researchers will map deformation band geometries and fold evolution in Jurassic Navajo sandstone using field data, three-dimensional drone-acquired imagery, and numerical modeling. The study integrates map-view and fold-axis-parallel cross-sectional perspectives to reveal how fault propagation drives three-dimensional strain evolution in porous rock. Results will inform permeability models for subsurface systems where fractures and deformation bands fall below the resolution of conventional geophysical methods. The work has direct application to geothermal energy exploration, petroleum resource production, and groundwater flow assessment.

Performance occurs at Trinity University's Olmos Park, Texas facility through June 30, 2029. No sub-awards are planned. The award supports workforce development in geothermal energy and geoscience careers through direct research participation.

Abstract

When stresses build within the earth?s crust, faults and folds form as rock relieves those stresses. Faults and folds commonly distort and fracture the rock around them so that fluids can flow more easily. Project researchers will study the SAN rafael monocline in utah to better understand how fluids flow in this underground geologic system. This will helps scientists to better understand geothermal energy potential, petroleum resource production, and groundwater flow. The results will provide scientists and natural resource professionals with a predictive model that can be applied in other places. Project participants will develop new skills and knowledge that can be applied to future career opportunities in geothermal energy exploration and production. The SAN rafael monocline in central utah is an exposed contractional fault-propagation fold. Previous research shows cross sectional deformation band geometries and intensities associated with different stages of fold development in the jurassic navajo sandstone. This project will build on those results to incorporate both map-view and fold-axis-parallel cross-sectional views of the system. The 3D evolution of the fold will be tested using numerical modeling. The results will be compared to models developed from field and 3D data acquired with drones. Within this context, this research aims to reveal the link between fault propagation fold development and the 3D evolution of strain in porous sandstone. Because fractures, deformation bands, and small faults are below the resolution of subsurface methods, these results will inform models of permeability for similar systems in the subsurface. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.- subawards are not planned for this award.