Establishing relationships between tectonic features and seismic hazards

The National Science Foundation Office of Integrative Activities awarded Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution $428,486 on September 1, 2026, under the Geosciences program (CFDA 47.050) to establish relationships between tectonic features and seismic hazards at subduction zones.

The research uses state-of-the-art plate tectonics models and mathematical methods to map connections between seafloor tectonic structures and earthquake locations at subduction zones, with initial focus on the Aleutians, Cascadia, and Chile before expanding globally. The work will generate a global database of fracture zone and seamount locations on subducted slabs and analyze how bathymetric and tectonic features on oceanic plates control water pathways into the Earth's interior—a factor central to earthquake nucleation and hazard assessment. Results will inform next-generation seismic hazard assessment for the U.S. and support training of earthquake scientists.

Performance occurs at Woods Hole, Falmouth, Massachusetts, with completion targeted for August 31, 2029. The assistance type is Project Grant.

Abstract

The largest earthquakes occur where tectonic plates descend into the earth at subduction zones, such as those along the ring of fire surrounding the pacific ocean. The seismic waves from these earthquakes can cause devastating destruction and life loss resulting from ground motions and tsunamis. The structure of the descending plate may be important in controlling the potential magnitude of these earthquakes. However, the exact relationship between plate properties and earthquake hazards is not well-known. This study will use state of the art models of plate tectonics and sophisticated mathematical methods to establish relationships between tectonic structures on the seafloor and the locations of significant earthquakes at subduction zones. The results will help inform the next generation of seismic hazard assessment for the US and help mitigate earthquake risks. The work will also help train the next generation of earthquake scientists. Subduction zones are a fundamental part of plate tectonics, representing the sites where surface materials such as water are recycled back into the earth. Water plays an important role in earthquake nucleation. Understanding the pathways of water through the subduction system is central for an understanding of hazard. Bathymetric and tectonic features on the oceanic plate likely play an important role in determining the locations and amounts of water that is brought into the interior of the earth. The primary objective of this study is to understand the relationships between subducted features on the down going plate or slab, and subduction zone seismicity at shallow and intermediate depths. The focus will be on the subduction zone 4D focus sites: the aleutians, cascadia and chile and then the analysis will expand globally. The research will first generate a global database of fracture zone and seamount locations on subducted slabs. Then, using global plate reconstructions the aim is to determine the locations of the features at the surface of the earth prior to subduction. Next, the study will employ two methods to project these features onto the slab at depth. The first method is a kinematic method that moves the feature down the slab given relative plate velocities and a slab geometry. The second is multi-dimensional scaling, which unfolds the slab onto the surface. These two methods provide a check on each other and can highlight complications such as slab tears and variations in slab geometry through time. We will compare subducted feature locations to shallow thrust finite fault rupture models and slab seismicity distributions to determine the role of various subducted tectonic features on earthquake characteristics. Finally, we will generate a set of interpolation functions that allow other features of interest to be projected and make other comparisons to a wide range of observations. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.- subawards are not planned for this award.