Mapping plant trade as a driver of biological invasions

The New York Botanical Garden received a $499,160 Project Grant from the National Science Foundation's Division of Behavioral and Cognitive Sciences under the Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences program (CFDA 47.075), awarded September 1, 2025, with completion targeted for August 31, 2028. This research initiative produces a comprehensive historical and spatial analysis of plant trade patterns and their relationship to contemporary biological invasions. The primary deliverables include mapped datasets documenting over two million plant trade introduction records spanning two centuries from georeferenced seed and nursery catalogs, covering approximately 20,000 plant species. Additionally, the project generates niche modeling analyses that identify patterns of human economic and social decision-making correlated with invasive species establishment, along with spatial ecology findings addressing fundamental questions about species' fundamental versus realized niches.

Beyond research outputs, the grant generates translational solutions and practical resources for public and industry stakeholders designed to balance the economic benefits of plant trade with reduced environmental costs. The deliverables include best practices and guidance materials that support both biodiversity conservation and economic sustainability in horticultural and agricultural sectors. By mapping the legacy of historical plant introductions, the research provides evidence-based tools and recommendations that enable communities to maintain the economic benefits of plant trade while mitigating unintended ecological disruptions caused by invasive species.

Abstract

The commercial trade of plant species has shaped landscapes and societies for centuries, yet trade is also a major source of plant invasion. How do we balance the benefits of introducing plants for horticulture, agriculture, and medicine, against the costs of introducing invasions that cause ecological and socioeconomic disruption? To address this question, this research examines how the history and geography of plant trade connects to the contemporary distribution and impacts of invasive species. By mapping the legacy of past plant introductions, this research reveals how long-standing patterns of human decision-making contribute to today?s invasive species challenges. Results will offer translational solutions for public and industry stakeholders, including practices that support both biodiversity and economic sustainability, as well as resources to help communities maintain the economic benefits of plant trade while reducing its unintended environmental costs. This research draws on a novel dataset spanning two centuries and over two million records of plant trade introductions from georeferenced seed and nursery catalogs, which capture the introduction history for nearly 20,000 plant species. By mapping the spatial and temporal frequency of introductions, this work identifies the patterns of human activity ? Driven by economic and social factors ? That are most likely to lead to biological invasions. These data also provide an opportunity to address one of the most fundamental questions in spatial ecology: what limits a species fundamental VS. Realized niche? Using niche models, nursery locations can be used to approximate a species ?potential niche?: environments where, due to human activity, plants can grow and survive in the absence of competition or dispersal limitation. When compared to locations where species invade, the potential niche reveals how species respond to novel environments and what factors limit their distributions outside of cultivation. By linking the past to the present and assessing the benefits versus impacts of plants in trade, the study aims to translate new knowledge into more informed decision-making. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.- subawards are not planned for this award.