Advancing public literacy of uncertainty in science in the context of simulation-based north atlantic storm forecasting

The National Science Foundation's Division of Research on Learning in Formal and Informal Settings awarded Concord Consortium Inc. a Project Grant of $1,992,383 (awarded September 15, 2025; completion date August 31, 2028) under the STEM Education program (CFDA 47.076) to develop the North Atlantic Storm (NAS) Explorer, an interactive web-based simulation platform designed to improve public understanding of uncertainty in North Atlantic storm forecasting. The project addresses a critical gap in public literacy by creating an accessible tool that allows residents in coastal communities to explore multiple storm trajectory scenarios using real-time data, thereby better understanding the probabilistic visualizations (such as cones of uncertainty and spaghetti plots) commonly used by news and social media outlets to communicate storm risks.

The project encompasses three coordinated research studies: (1) development and validation of survey instruments to measure Uncertainty Literacy in Atlantic Forecasting (ULAF) across three key constructs—interpretation of probabilistic storm visualizations, attribution of uncertainties to the forecasting process, and risk perception; (2) design-based research testing of the NAS Explorer prototype simulation; and (3) year-three evaluation of the platform's impact on public understanding. Sub-awardees include the American Meteorological Society (AMS), which manages participant recruitment, provides scientific expertise on simulation development, conducts daily forecasting sessions during storm events, and coordinates dissemination through established channels; and Physics Front LLC, which analyzes simulation data, identifies learning patterns, develops theoretical frameworks for simulation-based learning and uncertainty assessment, and contributes to research on online storm forecasting communities.

Abstract

North atlantic storms – such as hurricanes and nor'easters – disrupt lives and impose significant burdens on coastal communities. Residents in these regions rely on storm forecasts to assess risk and decide on protective actions. To inform the public, news and social media outlets frequently use scientific visualizations – such as cones of uncertainty and spaghetti plots – to communicate storm trajectories and potential impacts. However, these visualizations are difficult for most adults to interpret, largely because they do not specify the exact time and location the storm is expected to reach in the future. This project addresses the need to improve public understanding of the uncertainties embedded in storm forecasts and visualizations by leveraging online simulations. The project team plans to build the north atlantic storm (NAS) explorer that would allow participants to use interactive, web-based simulation to explore future paths of a storm in various scenarios based on the storm's real-time data. This project seeks to enhance public literacy in north atlantic storm forecasting through a simulation-based experience that replicates key aspects of the scientists' storm modeling and forecasting practices. Adult participants will be engaged across three research studies. The first study focuses on developing survey instruments to measure uncertainty literacy in atlantic forecasting (ulaf), targeting three constructs: (1) interpreting probabilistic storm visualizations (e.g., cones of uncertainty and spaghetti plots); (2) attributing uncertainties in these visualizations to the simulation-based forecasting process; and (3) perceiving the risks conveyed by these visualizations. The second study, using design-based research, will test the prototype north atlantic storm (NAS) explorer simulation. The third study in year 3 will evaluate the impact of the simulation-based forecasting experience on ulaf through a randomized control trial with 300 participants. Across these studies, the project will generate new knowledge about public uncertainty literacy, simulation design, and simulation-based forecasting experiences – insights that can inform science communication and public education for a variety of storm types and natural hazards. Project results will be disseminated through conference presentations, peer-reviewed journal articles, the project website, and social media platforms. This integrating research and practice project is funded by the advancing informal stem learning (aisl) program, which seeks to advance new approaches to, and evidence-based understanding of, the design and development of stem learning in informal environments. This includes providing everyone multiple pathways for accessing and engaging in stem learning experiences. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.- subawards are planned for this award.