Collaborative research: the drivers of regionally coherent meridional variability across the australian and asian monsoons over the common ERA

Occidental College received a $120,364 Project Grant from the National Science Foundation's Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences under the Geosciences program (CFDA 47.050) to conduct collaborative research on monsoon climate variability. The award, which commenced September 1, 2025 and extends through August 31, 2028, supports the development of a 1,000-year reconstruction of the Australian-Asian monsoon system through synthesis of paleoclimate proxy data derived from stalagmites, corals, and tree rings, complemented by new cave records from the Philippines and Northern Australia. The research outputs include a multi-proxy monsoon reconstruction and a suite of climate model simulations designed to identify external and internal drivers of monsoon variability and improve decadal precipitation forecasting for this climatically critical region.

Beyond primary research deliverables, the project supports workforce development and educational outreach activities, including participation by a postdoctoral researcher and undergraduate students in field and analytical work. The award also funds K-12 educational initiatives and public outreach programming in Iowa, California, New Mexico, and Northern Australia, as well as an art-science collaboration to enhance engagement with the broader scientific findings. These products and services directly advance the Geosciences program's core mission to strengthen fundamental knowledge of Earth's integrated systems while building scientific capacity through student training and community engagement.

Abstract

The eastern hemisphere tropics and subtropics are highly sensitive to variations in regional monsoon precipitation, which provides the majority of freshwater for the ~40% of the world population who reside there. Understanding interannual to multidecadal variations in the monsoon is critical for managing water resources. This project will compile data from cave deposits, corals and tree rings, as well as develop new records from caves in the philippines and northern australia, to produce a reconstruction of the behavior of the austral-asian monsoon for the last 1000 years. This reconstruction will guide a set of climate model simulations to identify the drivers of monsoon variability. The results will improve decadal prediction the austral-asian monsoon. The project will support the participation of a postdoc and undergraduate students in the research, an art-science collaboration, k-12 education, and public outreach to primary and secondary students in iowa, california, new mexico and northern australia. The goal of this project is to synthesize existing data from stalagmites, corals and tree rings with new cave records from the philippines and northern australia to reconstruct the austral-asian monsoon for the last 1000 years. The resulting multi-proxy reconstruction will guide a suite of climate model simulations, including large ensembles and isotope-enabled models, to identify drivers of monsoon variability and quantify the relative contributions of external (solar, aerosol, greenhouse gas) and internal (tropical basin interactions) forcings. The results will improve decadal prediction the austral-asian monsoon. The project will support the participation of a postdoc and undergraduate students in the research, an art-science collaboration, k-12 education, and public outreach to primary and secondary students in iowa, california, new mexico and northern australia. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.- subawards are not planned for this award.