Advancing models of land use and management

The National Science Foundation's Division of Behavioral and Cognitive Sciences awarded Bates College a $370K Project Grant (CFDA 47.075, Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences program) effective September 1, 2025, through August 31, 2028, to advance models of land use and management. The project generates multiple research products and deliverables, including empirical findings from economic experiments conducted with private forest landowners, land use professionals, and economists; spatially explicit agent-based models (ABMs) parameterized by experimental data to simulate land use patterns and participation decisions in Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) programs; landscape pattern analyses revealing how individual preferences and institutional design interact to drive environmental outcomes; and peer-reviewed manuscripts disseminating results to policymakers and relevant organizations. Additionally, the project produces software tools developed during the research, made publicly available for future research applications.

Through a sub-award to Boise State University ($370K obligation), a PhD student will conduct advanced agent-based modeling and landscape analyses under BSU supervision, with BSU contributing to project reporting and manuscript development. The integrated research approach combines experimental economics, computational modeling, and spatial analysis to understand factors—including individual preferences, behavioral norms, demographics, environmental heterogeneity, and programmatic messaging—that predict landowner participation in PES programs. The project also supports undergraduate student training and education in research methods, enhancing workforce development in the social and behavioral sciences.

Abstract

This research examines individuals? Decisions to participate in payment for ecosystem services programs, which provide financial remuneration to offset the costs that landowners may incur when adopting land management strategies. In this project, the researchers consider factors that potentially explain why individuals vary in their willingness to join payment programs. Using experimental methods and simulations, the researchers examine the importance of individual preferences, norms of behavior, demographic variation, environmental heterogeneity, and programmatic messaging as predictors of participation. The project also enhances the education and training of undergraduate students who assist with the research. This project combines economic experiments, spatially explicit agent-based models, and landscape pattern analysis to understand how interactions between individual preferences and institutional design drive land use and management patterns. The experimental design parallels the decisions faced by individuals who are involved with payment programs. The experiments are conducted both with individuals and with specialists, including private forest landowners, land use professionals, and economists. In turn, the experimental results are used to parameterize the agent-based models, which facilitate inferences about the importance of individuals? Motivations and spatial considerations, respectively. Results are disseminated to officials and organizations. Software developed as part of this project is made available for future research. This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.- subawards are planned for this award.