Agricultural markets in the U.S., such as the markets for cattle and beef processing labor, have become increasingly concentrated over time, with only a few firms purchasing cattle from producers or…

The Department of Agriculture National Institute of Food and Agriculture awarded Arizona State University $591,500 under the Agriculture and Food Research Initiative (AFRI) on June 1, 2026.

The project develops new methods to measure how changes in market structure in the U.S. beef supply chain affect the prices cattle producers receive, the wages workers earn, and the prices consumers pay for beef. The research uses data from cattle markets, retail grocery stores, and national labor surveys to examine the ability of cattle producers to shift sales among beefpacking plants, consumer ability to switch purchases across beef brands, and worker mobility between beefpacking jobs. The project identifies how much market power beefpackers hold when purchasing cattle, hiring workers, and selling beef, and how that power changes when companies merge. Economic models will simulate the effects of different mergers on producer incomes, worker earnings, and food prices.

Performance occurs in Scottsdale, Arizona, with a period of performance from June 1, 2026 through May 31, 2029. The award is structured as a Project Grant, the standard assistance type for AFRI research funding.

Agricultural markets in the U.S., such as the markets for cattle and beef processing labor, have become increasingly concentrated over time, with only a few firms purchasing cattle from producers or hiring workers. When only a small number of large buyers dominate a market, they may be able to push down the prices they pay to cattle producers or the wages they offer to workers. These lower prices can reduce cattle producers' profitability, weaken rural economies, and make IT more difficult for food manufacturing and agricultural workers to earn a stable, livable wage. At the same time, consolidation has effects downstream by raising food prices (i.e., beef prices) paid by consumers. Although federal agencies routinely study the effects of mergers among food companies, current methods do not adequately account for the how market power in the supply chain affects both farmgate prices and consumer prices simultaneously. This creates a need for research that can help policymakers better understand how concentration affects agricultural producers, workers, and consumers, and how mergers may alter the overall economic outcomes observed across the U.S. Food system. This project will develop new ways to measure how changes in market structure affect the prices cattle producers receive, the wages workers earn, and the prices consumers pay for beef. We will use data from cattle markets, retail grocery stores, and national labor surveys to examine the ability of cattle producers to shift their sales among beefpacking plants, the ability of consumers to switch purchases across competing beef brands, and how workers may move between beefpacking jobs. By studying these patterns, we can identify how much power U.S. Beefpackers may have when purchasing cattle, hiring workers, and selling beef, and how that market changes when companies merge. We will also build economic models to simulate what would happen to producer incomes, worker earnings, and food prices if different mergers were to occur. The ultimate goal of this project is to give cattle producers, packing plant workers, consumers, and policymakers clearer, more accurate information about how consolidation affects the agricultural economy. The research aims to create a practical framework and set of methods that federal and state agencies can use to evaluate proposed mergers, design better policies, and ensure more competitive markets. By improving understanding of how market power operates in agriculture, this project will support stronger rural communities, more transparent food pricing, and a more competitive landscape in terms of pricing and wage rates across the food system.