Impacts of wildfires in rural communities in the western US have increased in recent decades due to increasing wildfire frequency and severity, and increased development within high wildfire hazard…

Impacts of wildfires in rural communities in the western US have increased in recent decades due to increasing wildfire frequency and severity, and increased development within high wildfire hazard areas. Increasing risk, as well as policies designed to address that risk, have potential to reshape these areas – many of which are in what is called the wildland-urban interface (WUI), where developed areas abut or intermingle with large areas of wildland vegetation – in coming years. In this project, we study who is affected by wildfire risk, and how WUI communities might change under various policies to address that risk. First, we undertake the first detailed assessment of exactly who is affected by wildfires, using microdata on property values and characteristics merged with household demographic data, including income. This analysis sheds light on the distribution of impacts across income groups within regions of individual states, information that is currently lacking but is importantfor policymakers. In the second part of the project, we build an equilibrium locational sorting model to analyze how households relocate in response to changing wildfire risks and the implementation of policies such as zoning and defensible space requirements, building codes, and insurance rate hikes. The results of the model will provide guidance on the cost-effectiveness and distributional impacts of alternative approaches to addressing wildfire costs on rural communities.