Project goal: (1) compare product development, testing, and usage by forecasters at two operational centers (WPC and NHC), and (2) examine public responses to weather products, especially in…

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration awarded a cooperative agreement to The Research Foundation For The State University Of New York (operating as Stony Brook University) for $494,029 on August 1, 2026, under the Weather and Air Quality Research program (CFDA 11.459).

The award funds research comparing product development, testing, and operational usage at two National Weather Service centers—the Weather Prediction Center and the National Hurricane Center—and examining public responses to weather products in vulnerable communities as extreme weather unfolds. Primary deliverables include comparative analysis of scenario forecaster product development at both centers using ensemble clustering methods, real-time survey results and social network analysis assessing how National Weather Service products impact information flows and decision-making in vulnerable communities in New York City (including those facing language barriers), and at least three formal publications. The project will develop a consistent framework across operational centers to improve product development and service delivery, and will generate actionable understanding of how forecast information flows from operational centers to vulnerable communities and how residents interpret and act on that information.

Performance occurs in Stony Brook, New York, with a period of performance from August 1, 2026, through July 31, 2028. The Research Foundation For The State University Of New York serves as the administrative entity; Stony Brook University is the executing institution.

Project goal: (1) compare product development, testing, and usage by forecasters at two operational centers (WPC and NHC), and (2) examine public responses to weather products, especially in vulnerable communities, as extreme weather unfolds using longitudinal surveys and a social network analysis to study information flow, interpretation of NWS products, and behaviors. Problem/opportunity statement: this project addresses gaps in understanding operational workflows, forecast product usage, and real-time responses to extreme weather as IT approaches. IT compares product development at two centers and uses longitudinal surveys and social network analysis to study perceptions, decision-making, and information flow within vulnerable communities, including those facing language barriers. Methodology/activities: we will use tools such as ensemble clustering to (1) evaluate scenario forecaster product development at WPC and NHC; (2) real-time surveys and social network analysis in NYC will assess how NWS products impact the idss messaging, information flows within communities, and decision-making among vulnerable communities. Primary project products/outputs: the primary project outputs include (1) better knowledge about product development and service delivery at WPC and NHC; (2) additional survey results about how storm warning information is communicated from NWS down to the communities and their actions as weather events approach; (3) and at least three formal publications. Expected results, outcomes, and benefits: this project will help develop a (1) consistent framework across operational centers to improve product development and service delivery; and (2) better understanding of how forecast information is communicated and interpreted from the operational centers and forecast offices and to the vulnerable communities, and how residents use that information. Intended beneficiaries and recipients: this project will help the operational centers better develop procedures for products that help communicate hazards to the forecasters and ultimately to the stakeholders. Our surveys will be useful to understand how NWS messaging and products are impacting stakeholder and public decision making as a storm is approaching.