The objectives of this proposal focus on understanding the impacts of oceanographic changes on migratory species, particularly chinook salmon, steelhead, and cutthroat trout

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) awarded Oregon State University $282,869 under Cooperative Agreement NA26OARX417C0149 on August 1, 2026, through the Sea Grant Support program (CFDA 11.417).

The award funds development of individual-based models (IBMs) that simulate how oceanographic changes affect migratory salmonids. The project uses regional ocean circulation model output and NOAA-tagged salmon smolt data to model Chinook salmon smolt trajectories and survival under realistic and future ocean conditions, capturing behavioral and physiological processes including swimming speed, depth selection, and energetic needs. The framework analyzes how environmental variables—temperature, currents, and prey availability—influence survival dynamics. The project extends this modeling approach to steelhead and cutthroat trout to conduct comparative analyses of species-specific vulnerabilities to changing ocean conditions. The work addresses population declines in early marine phases when Chinook salmon face marine heatwaves, shifting currents, and reduced prey availability.

Work is performed in Corvallis, Oregon through July 31, 2029. The project aims to fill knowledge gaps in salmon population dynamics and provide actionable insights for ecosystem-based fisheries management.

Activities

This project uses individual-based models (ibms) and regional ocean circulation model output to simulate chinook salmon smolt trajectories and survival under realistic ocean conditions. The IBM is parameterized using NOAA-tagged salmon smolt data and published literature to capture behavioral and physiological processes along migration tracks, such as swimming speed, depth selection, and energetic needs. The model will analyze how environmental variables influence survival dynamics, including temperature, currents, and prey availability. Future ocean conditions will also be incorporated to assess the potential impacts of environmental changes. This framework will be adapted for steelhead and cutthroat trout to conduct comparative analyses of species-specific vulnerabilities to changing ocean conditions.

Expected outcomes

Understanding how changes in ocean conditions impact the population dynamics of chinook salmon is critical to addressing their ongoing population declines. Chinook salmon face significant challenges during their early marine phase, a life stage vulnerable to marine heatwaves, shifting ocean currents, and reduced prey availability, threatening their resilience and the ecosystems and communities that depend on them. Despite decades of conservation efforts, knowledge gaps remain in linking smolt survival to the ocean conditions they encounter.

Intended beneficiaries

Addressing these gaps is vital for informing fisheries management and supporting noaas goals of sustaining marine ecosystems and coastal communities, supporting the long-term economic viability of domestic fisheries, and improving the cost-efficiency and predictive accuracy of marine resource planning using existing federal data.

Subrecipient activities

There will be no subrecipients on this award.