In this proposal we document economic lessons from cycles of boom and bust in previous US aquaculture sectors and then apply them to the emerging sector of alternative oyster culture

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration awarded a Cooperative Agreement worth $780,551 to Mississippi State University on June 1, 2026, under the Sea Grant Support program (CFDA 11.417).

The recipient will expand an existing cost-earnings model for oyster aquaculture by collecting production-cost and market-price data nationwide from producers, distributors, and retailers across the Gulf, Atlantic, and Pacific coasts. The project team will integrate this data into two existing decision-support tools and deliver results through a web-based interface enabling oyster aquaculture firms to simulate production and marketing scenarios. The work responds to rapid expansion of alternative oyster culture in the United States driven by declining traditional wild harvests and increased public investment in oyster genetics, hatchery infrastructure, and cage-based production methods. The team previously completed an initial cost-earnings model for southeastern oyster aquaculture firms and identified minimum economic-viability scales for Louisiana producers; this award funds the geographic and methodological expansion of that analysis.

Performance of work is located at Mississippi State University, Starkville, Mississippi. The period of performance runs from June 1, 2026, through May 31, 2029.

Activities

In the next phase of this work, we propose to expand the scope of this model by collecting data on oyster aquaculture production costs and market prices nationwide - a process that will require engaging producers, distributors, and retailers (including restaurants) on the gulf, atlantic, and pacific coasts. Results from the expanded model will be made available nationally through the merging and refinement of two existing decision tools for financial decision support. We assert that long-term survival of oyster aquaculture businesses (and US aquaculture in general) will require a partial shift in sea grants role in the industry from promotion to profitability. This shift can be facilitated by providing firms with access to objective economic data through an intuitive, web-based interface for simulating a wide range of production and marketing decisions.

Expected outcomes

An objective economic assessment of the conditions affecting the likelihood of success of targeted aquaculture operations. A flexible, user-friendly, online decision tool for aquaculture growers with online training materials and presentations on its use. Industry guidance documents, webinars and in-person trainings outlining the economic viability of different production, marketing, and risk management strategies tested by the research team using the decision support tool.

Intended beneficiaries

Aquaculture producers, particularly oyster aquaculture producers subrecipient activities: researchers and sea grant extension personnel at louisiana state university, the university of florida, and NOAA fisheries will partner with lead researchers at mississippi state university to develop and implement economic models, develop an online decision tool, and disseminate findings with industry.