Title: precipitation prediction grand challenge: using quick response surveys to develop and pilot test flood risk communications principal investigator: valerie were

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration awarded a Cooperative Agreement to Colorado State University on May 1, 2026, totaling $776,013 to develop and pilot test plain-language flood risk communication guidance for deployment by National Weather Service forecasters and Integrated Warning Team partners. The award is made under the Cooperative Institute (Inter-Agency Funded Activities) program (CFDA 11.405).

Colorado State University will research and validate communication strategies for extreme rainfall and flash flooding across a 0 to 7-day forecast window, leveraging the Quick Response Survey database on individual response to hazards to evaluate differences in flood risk exposure between people unaware of risk and those aware and prepared in advance. The project will iteratively develop and pilot test risk communication concepts through focus groups, surveys, and input from National Weather Service offices, emergency managers, and media partners.

The primary deliverable is a prototype library of plain-language flood messages formatted for deployment as selectable components within AWIPS and other operational systems, along with recommendations for how Integrated Warning Team members can amplify these messages. The project will demonstrate how behavioral research translates into operationally useful products supporting improved public outcomes for flood hazard communication.

Work is performed in Fort Collins, Colorado, with performance through April 30, 2028. Principal Investigator Valerie Were (Colorado State University) works in collaboration with co-investigator Qian Yu (University of Massachusetts Amherst).