Many commercial and recreational U.S. Fisheries have been HIT hard by harmful algal bloom (HAB) events, which are projected to increase the frequency, intensity, and spatial extent of some types of…

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration awarded the University of Washington a cooperative agreement totaling $395,802 on June 1, 2026, under the Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research Coastal Ocean Program (CFDA 11.478).

The award funds research quantifying harvester adaptive responses to harmful algal blooms (HABs) in commercial and recreational fisheries, with emphasis on understanding how fishing communities and individuals shift effort across fisheries, reallocate spatially, or exit to non-fishing sectors when HABs disrupt traditional catch areas. The University of Washington will deliver three core products: estimates of observed adaptive responses in commercial and recreational fisheries using fish ticket and recreational license data with causal inference tools; estimates of behavioral tipping points derived from a survey of commercial Dungeness and recreational Dungeness and razor clam harvesters, applicable to future HAB scenarios; and hypothesis test results relating place-based adaptive capacity estimates to pre-existing community susceptibility and fishing dependence. This research addresses NOAA's priority to develop actionable information on harmful algal blooms and support management and policy decisions protecting public health and coastal economic vitality.

The period of performance runs from June 1, 2026 through May 31, 2029. Work is performed in Seattle, Washington. The University of Washington Office of Sponsored Programs administers the award through its Grant & Contracts Division.

Many commercial and recreational U.S. Fisheries have been HIT hard by harmful algal bloom (HAB) events, which are projected to increase the frequency, intensity, and spatial extent of some types of habs in the future. Facing a HAB event, commercial, recreational, or subsistence harvesters may choose to mitigate revenue, welfare, or food losses through a variety of adaptive responses including: increasing participation in alternative fisheries (cross-fishery spillovers), reallocating effort over space (spatial spillovers), or pursuing a non-fishing option (spillovers to other sectors). Further, adaptive responses can evolve over time, as harvesters learn about the returns to various strategies and receive more information about the risk and returns to participating in fisheries afflicted by chronic habs. Understanding adaptive capacity and adaptive responses and their evolution is critical to predicting and mitigating economic and social impacts of habs, both for harvesters and coastal communities. Our proposed research focuses on quantifying harvester adaptive responses to harmful algal blooms in both commercial and recreational fisheries, assessing the evolution of adaptive responses over time, and assessing the relationship between pre-existing community susceptibility, adaptive capacity, and adaptation impacts. Key deliverables from our project are: (1) estimates of adaptive responses to observed habs in commercial and recreational fisheries using fish ticket and recreational license data along with tools from causal inference; (2) estimates of tipping points, or sharp behavioral changes, that can be crossed with future HAB scenarios, generated through a unique survey of commercial (dungeness) and recreational (dungeness and razor clam) harvesters; and (3) results of hypothesis tests of the relation between place-based estimates of adaptive capacity and pre-existing community susceptibility and fishing dependence.