This proposal builds upon our successful research program from 2019-2025 (phase i) focused on understanding oyster, blue crab, southern flounder and spotted seatrout (oybcsfst) population dynamics…

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration awarded the University of South Alabama a Cooperative Agreement of $1,065,521 on May 1, 2026, to lead a five-year research program studying oyster, blue crab, southern flounder, and spotted seatrout population dynamics in the Gulf of Mexico under the Gulf Coast Ecosystem Restoration Science, Observation, Monitoring, and Technology program (CFDA 11.451).

The award funds Phase II of a long-term research initiative focusing on mechanisms linking environmental drivers—including estuarine hydrography, water quality, coastal land use change, and fishing pressure—to fisheries population responses. The Phase I program (2019–2025) established that these species' population dynamics significantly correlate with environmental trends and variability; Phase II will identify and quantify the underlying ecological mechanisms to inform ecosystem-level management decisions on water quality, habitat conservation and restoration, and fishery stock management. Work is performed in Mobile, Alabama, from May 1, 2026, through April 30, 2031.

Louisiana State University, led by Dr. Jeffrey Plumlee, will conduct habitat suitability modeling, synthesize long-term environmental and fisheries datasets, and develop spatial decision-support products for project partners and stakeholders. LSU will compile and organize relevant datasets, conduct exploratory and statistical analyses to identify relationships among environmental conditions, habitat characteristics, and fisheries responses, and prepare maps, figures, and technical reports under supervision of a doctoral graduate research assistant during Years 1 and 2.

Auburn University, led by Dr. Di Tian and Dr. Latif Kalin, will conduct hydroclimate analysis, climate-projection downscaling, and watershed modeling to quantify historical and projected changes in hydrologic conditions and freshwater, nutrient, and sediment loads to Mobile Bay. Auburn will compile hydroclimate observations, apply deep-learning approaches to downscale global climate model outputs, transition an existing watershed model to the SWAT+ platform, and calibrate it against hydrologic and water-quality observations to generate hourly estimates for bay and estuarine models.

Mississippi State University, led by Dr. Yun, Dr. Petrolia, and Dr. Kim, will conduct ecosystem asset analysis, environmental valuation analysis, and regional economic impact analysis, with major effort concentrated in Years 3–5, Years 1–3, and Years 2–4 respectively, supported by an MS graduate student.

This proposal builds upon our successful research program from 2019-2025 (phase i) focused on understanding oyster, blue crab, southern flounder and spotted seatrout (oybcsfst) population dynamics in relation to environmental trends and variability. Over the past five years, the program made significant progress quantifying and linking trends in populations and environmental drivers, providing new data and insights to fisheries and environmental managers. However, threats to oybcsfst persist and may be intensifying due to large magnitude changes in estuarine hydrography and water quality, land use change in coastal watersheds, and increasing fishing pressure. In phase i, IT was demonstrated that oybcsfst population dynamics were significantly correlated to these environmental trends and variability. Now, the question is, what are the underlying mechanisms that relate long-term trends and short-term variability in the environment to changing oybcsfst populations? Concerted resource management actions at the ecosystem level, such as managing water quality in combination with habitat conservation/restoration and fishery stock management, requires identification and quantification of these mechanisms to predict how management and restoration activities will benefit fisheries species. This is the focus of the phase II renewal proposal. The oybcsfst community represents a practical model of the fauna in the BAY and were selected because these species have significant resource management issues and interest and their collective ranges and trophic interactions span the estuarine ecosystem from coastal ocean to tidalriver. Thus, improving the management of the cumulative oybcsfst community is expected to improve conditions for many other estuarine species. Research rationale and activities: the overarching research question is: how do oybcsfst populations vary in response to changes in predominant biophysical stressors? Four major research themes and questions are posed to address this: 1. Environmental change: how do oybcsfst populations change with a changing environment? 2. Thresholds for oybcsfst: what are the environmental thresholds that affect oybcsfst? 3. Ecosystem services and resource utilization: what are the linkages between environmental stressors, oybcsfst ecosystem services, economic systems, and management actions? 4. Environmental prediction: given knowledge of past and present trends and potential change scenarios, what will be the impact to oybcsfst populations and the implications for managers? Outreach and transfer of project products: we will build upon our partnerships developed in phase i with the alabama department of conservation and natural resources, the mobile BAY national estuary program, the nature conservancy, and mobile baykeeper. For example, some of our previous successes include providing products and expertise for oybcsfst fisheries managers at adcnr and providing inputs to public facing documents such as mbneps state of alabamas estuaries and coasts report.